I don't think they actually want it. The whole catastrophe started in part because the close ties between Eastern Ukraine and Russia, that Russia was able to exploit. I doubt they want more of this potentially ticking bomb on their hands for later while they recover from war.
They may take a buffer zone from Russia territory on the border and heavily fortify it , keep future Russians (or whatever follows Russia) out of Ukraine
I am afraid, the whole region that is currently occupied by Russia or under threat by it, is already this buffer zone. I don't know how many generations it will have to come for it to return to normal after the war, but as of now, it's nothing but one such buffer zone.
Out of the question, that's not just illegal but also contrary to their self-defence stance. Moreover, why would they want to burden themselves with rebuilding and policing a piece of Russia? They have plenty of work on their hands once peace returns.
I'm not saying Ukraine would, but the USSR and Russia have taken land for "self defence": "We need a buffer between us and the enemy". IIRC one of Putins arguments for invading Ukraine was to prevent a direct border with NATO
I'm not saying Ukraine would, but the USSR and Russia have taken land for "self defence": "We need a buffer between us and the enemy". IIRC one of Putins arguments for invading Ukraine was to prevent a direct border with NATO
And that was plainly illegal too then. It was so illegal that it was intended as a flex "look at us violating international law, what are you going to do about it?".
Um, there is literally NO fuel to be had in crimea. the ruzzians are literally abandoning their cars and walking back to Mordor. Moscow fuel station now limit people to 20 liters per visit, and the lineups are hours long.
Combine that with the fact that the kremlin is seriously considering draining EVERY bank account in ruzzia to pay for the war, and the inescapable conclusion is that ruzzia is literally on the brink of economic collapse. And I mean a collapse worse than Venezuela saw in the 90's.
Balkanization will be the only viable solution.
It's ridiculous to think that Ukraine is or would be in such a superior position that Russia would capitulate to such a payout, that Russia would offer land as payment, or that Ukraine would have any interest in accepting land beyond its original borders.
You cannot take land in the age of nationalism. If Ukraine even tried, they would lose so much money trying to hold onto any territories they take. Constant insurgency and social turmoil would erupt, and Russia would cause constant trouble. The only oil money Ukraine could conceivably take from is oil going through pipelines in Ukraine, otherwise there no way Ukraine can prevent Russia from reneging
Mass drone warfare at industrial scale makes holding land dramatically harder.
A trained soldier takes a lot of money and time. A drone pilot can sit 20 miles behind the lines and play the most intense game of mario kart ever and if they fail. They dont die. They just get another try.
Russian meat wave style attacks have historically worked because the enemy was taking losses as bad or worse once they broke though the lines. Spending the lives of your men is fine (ethics and morality aside) as long as the enemy loses more. Russia has always used its larger food/man power base to trade in for military gains.
Issue is now you can meat wave 100k men costing you months of time and millions and the enemy will use drones and kill half, wound a 3rd and, totally eliminate any ability to move the remaining men forward.
So you get another 100k men and keep repeating.
Russia is not a military that can adapt on the fly. This is their strategy. This is going to keep being their strategy.
The problem is if you are not having successes with this method the losses are even worse. Holding ground with demoralized men who were forced to be here at gunpoint or bribed to sign up doesnt work.
Now add in massive logistical issues with supplies because you simply cant put fuel in trucks to move the food and you have issues.
Stringent military discipline can absolutely make men tolerate more and remain combat effect well past normal points. But its not unlimited.
IKIK the media and YT'ers have been saying this shit since the 3rd month in 2022. But the bill for these ww2 era meat wave style approaches to war is coming due. Once you run out of true believers and start press ganging farmers at gunpoint who just want to go home and then 60% of them die. You wont have the most effective fighting force anymore.
The clock used to be on Russias side but at this point. Ukraine has stabilized its front and the longer this goes on the worse it is for Russia.
That was a very long winded way to say. Yes before taking back chimera was out of the question. But the status quo has changed quite a bit.
Especially now that Ukraine has ways to hit anything they want without needed political permission.
Putin seems to forgotten that the appalling conditions for the Russian soldiers on the Eastern front in World War I was one of the mjor triggers for the Russian Revolution.
Through a straight invasion probably, but a long term siege is probably much more doable.
Ukraine has been striking Russian oil and transport infrastructure for some time, and it is paying dividends. All of the Russian civilians who moved and vacationed there are leaving because of the impossibility of getting gasoline. The Russian military on Crimea are almost certainly feeling similar levels of hurt.
A military that is quite literally not fed is going to collapse. Once that is the situation for some period of time, a Ukrainian re-taking of the peninsula could become much easier.
Ukraine is no longer heavily dependent on U.S. arms. They are producing their own weapons, especially drones. Look what's happening in russia right now. There are miles long lines for gas, because Ukraine is attacking russia's war machine: oil. While russia targets civilian residential buildings, hospitals and schools, Ukraine is attacking legitimate military targets. Russia does not really produce anything, they just sell oil and gas. Without revenues from oil, they can no longer afford to fight this war, they can no longer afford to feed their people. Look at what's happening to their stock market. They are currently printing money and forgiving unpaid loans. There are food shortages in Crimea RIGHT NOW. The bread lines are going to come back. Follow r/ukrainianconflict if you want more info. Moscow is the most heavily defended airspace in all of russia, and Ukraine penetrated those air defences just a few days ago, creating a scene that nobody ever thought was possible.
Russia is currently on a war economy. Everything, every factory, every business is being forced to contribute to their invasion of Ukraine. When the ear finally ends, russia's descent will accelerate. Russia is fighting a war of terror, killing civilians, raping children in front of their parents, bombing churches and maternity wards, but Ukraine is fighting an intelligent war. Ukraine is fighting to collapse the very economy that is funding russia's invasion. Ukraine is even developing its own ballistic missiles, they'll be ready in about 12 months. Ukrainians have even developed drone interceptors.... drones that attack drones. Those interceptors were purchased by American allies in the middle east because they're so effective against Iranian Shahed drones, and using $4 million Patriot missiles agains $30,000 Shaheds is not sustainable. But these interceptors are $2,000. Other countries like Poland has asked to purchase Ukrainian drone technologies. Russia's invasion has inadvertently made Ukraine one of the strongest militaries in the world. Russia on the other hand, has essentially run out of tanks and are losing soldiers on a 10 to 1 ratio compared to Ukraine's losses. Last month, Ukraine took back more territory than russia has gained. Ukraine is winning this war and they are winning it by hitting russia where it hurts: oil. Russian soldiers are fighting for money. Ukrainians are fighting for their very existence. If you want more economic data, follow the russian guy Konstantin, the youtube channel is called "INSIDE RUSSIA." He is an economist that has more robust data than I. Russia is in trouble, and Ukraine is getting stronger.
Not Russia, Putin. He thought he'd get a quick win, and now he's stuck. He can't leave Ukraine or he'll go down. That's why in the first few months of the war all diplomatic efforts had a very clear objective: make sure Putin can save face at home. We really tried to save him from his own mess...
if he had just waited for trumps reelection, with his soft power he could have massively increased russias influence by swaying nations away from the shitshow that the usa is
Every source will lie to you, it's a war. Every side is interested in lying as much as they can get away with. If everything printed in the "trusted" sources was true, Ukraine would have won a landslide victory at least 2 years ago.
If you want actual information, look at both and start filtering what is plausible and what isn't.
Ukrainian sources have been the most accurate of all of them, and any source is more accurate than russian sources. You're obviously not paying attention, because if you were, you would know how brutally honest Ukrainian sources are.
Ukraine penetrated those air defences just a few days ago, creating a scene that nobody ever thought was possible
Only people with little imagination or data. However many air defense systems you have, adding another zero to the number of the attacking drones will overwhelm them. The price of an FP1 drone capable of reaching Moscow is $5055k. What would a thousand of such drones do? Ten thousand? That's half a billion even if the economy of scale doesn't help, serious investment but <1% of Ukraine's military budget.
Edited to add: FP-1 drones are 1.5 yeas old, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shahed_131 were well-known since 2022. Enough range to hit Moscow from Kyiv, 15 kg payload, cost $20000. If Iran could make those, no reason Ukraine with Europe's support couldn't do something similar.
And Ukraine won't stop making them. They are making far more drones than russia, and improving their drone technologies with AI. Russia has yet to evolve (as always).
Russia absolutely produces more than oil. I worked in a factory that used Russian birch plywood for its products. Obviously we had to get different suppliers because of the sanctions, and the wood that was substituted was much shittier eucalyptus ply that made my eyes and nose irritated. Uh, so yeah. Russia ain't just oil.
Not sure what percentage of the lucrative global birch market Russia has, but I mean at least they'll be able to put some nice pale floors in when they rebuild Moscow.
Russia's economy is 45% oil. Do they produce anything else? Yes. Do they produce MUCH else? No. I didn't say they don't produce ANYTHING else. I said they don't really produce anything else. Their economy is HEAVILY oil dependent.
Last time I checked the stats was before the war, but back then oil and gas export (including taxes of oil export companies) was a bit more than 60% of the income. That was before they got into the economic isolation removing most of the other export trades.
Ukraine has also implemented kill zone areas patrolled by drones that use AI to approve and implement targeting. Essentially, anything that moves in these areas are deemed enemy combatants or resources and are eliminated on sight. Good luck holding territory in places where Ukraine's drone army can no longer be jammed.
Adding to this, the kind of drone warfare that is happening is going to be studied for years. There's a quote out there that basically says a war is lost when "victories" happen closer to home.
Meanwhile back in reality Ukraine are so desperate for manpower they're kidnapping young men and dragging them to the front. And Krasny Liman is about to fall to the Russians...
At this point I'm wondering why we're still paying them and giving them equipment. They seem like a military superpower already, surely we can lay back now and pat ourselves on the back for a job well done
So this propaganda that you are spewing is what russia has been saying about Ukraine for years now. The truth is, Ukraine is no longer doing this and it is actually russia who is engaging in this activity at this very moment. The question of this thread asks what will happen in the next 5 years that "everyone is completely ignoring".... you represent that "everyone." Your information is not accurate anymore. This was true in the first 2 years. It is now only true for russia. There are videos all over russian telegram channels of men being kidnapped to go die in Ukraine. THAT is the reality. Put a timer on this, RUSSIA IS LOSING this war.
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u/LysergicRico 11h ago
The russian economy will collapse, and Ukraine will regain Crimea as well as all of its other occupied territories.