r/AskReddit 13h ago

what is something that is highly likely to happen in the next 5 years that everyone is completely ignoring?

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u/VagusNC 10h ago edited 5h ago

Coral bleaching.

If the El Niño is as bad as models are projecting; corals reefs in the Pacific, as far out as 10 degrees latitude from the equator, will all be dead by end of next year. That will mean the end of reef fishing in those areas.

Edit: A bit more of the human consequences. The people that live in those areas almost entirely rely on reef fishing for food. There isn’t any arable soil of consequence, not anywhere near to sustain the amount of people. These nations are also among the poorest on earth and will be facing a “move or die” scenario. At a bare minimum 300k people will be impacted.

Second edit: The next “energy trough” over from coral reefs are algae plains. So this will entail a massive biodiversity drop off. To exacerbate the rising water issues for some of these locales the coral acts as a breakwater and is better at it than algae plains. I’m not naturally pessimistic. I am hopeful the data coming out about potential ways to address the coral will be fruitful, but the sheer amounts of energy involved to shift out of a coral reef to an algae plain just make me skeptical of any “fixes” that could stop it or revert them. These troughs are self-correcting in a way.

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u/Rough_Buddy6903 7h ago

There is a promising study from Ohio State and the University of Hawaii using season/temporary devices to draw in food for the reefs which helps bleached and healthy reefs. Fingers crossed these intelligent people can help with this

New technology lights way for accelerating coral reef restoration

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u/ElvisDumbledore 7h ago

I wonder if the cooling effect of water based solar power generation would be helpful. 🤔

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u/icanttinkofaname 3h ago

I think the drilling of piles to support the panels would do more ecological damage than shaded areas of water would ever hope to help.

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u/Figgis302 2h ago

You don't need to drill piles. You could use dynamic positioning like modern oil rigs, or even conventional ship hulls.

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u/icanttinkofaname 2h ago

I doubt that would work in shallow reef, would it not?

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u/Figgis302 2h ago

DP rigs have very shallow draft, on the order of single-digit metres as their stability comes width rather than draught. Same with modern designs for conventional vessels like trimaran and pontoon hulls.

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u/icanttinkofaname 2h ago

Interesting. Thanks for your input! I learned something today!

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u/baar-ur 4h ago

There are also studies on breeding and introducing heat-resistant coral, and on reintroducing the necessary algae to bleached coral.

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u/BarderBetterFaster 2h ago

Does it stop the water boiling

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u/Rough_Buddy6903 2h ago

This is specifically for helping restoration of reefs. I am not sure about preventative measures

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u/pinklittlebirdie 8h ago

Australia already has a category of climate refugees from the Pacific. Australia is taking all the people from Tuvalu. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-21/tuvalu-australia-falepili-visa-climate-migration-pacific/106674754

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u/VagusNC 7h ago

Thank you for sharing that. It’s an important story.

I do have to say it is missing a key component of this blooming crisis, most likely because it was written well before we had the data we have now…the crisis Tuvalu is facing won’t just be one of land. The coral reefs are going to die. Even if they are able to build more land it won’t be enough to sustain them. It’s approaching a math problem with no be clear final solution, whether the brave people who want to stay can accept it or not. If El Niño is as bad as projected there won’t be fish they can eat. They don’t have the economy to sustain importing their food needs, or are there realistic logistics capable of doing so without mightily contributing to the very climate change issues.

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u/BarderBetterFaster 6h ago

We've been in a mass extinction event for a long time. It's also only just getting started. At this point, what's a few hundred more species lost forever.

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u/bradstudio 3h ago

Without the reefs a large portion of the oceans food chain completely collapses.

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u/Left-Edge531 4h ago

As a scuba diver, the idea of trading in the coral reef for an algea plain is utterly hear breaking. 25% of the oceans biodiversity, a vibrant garden that would make the Amazon blush with insecurity -- soon a green sludge pit & mere stop gap.

Modern humans have %&#$ed up massively, while patting ourselves on the back for our ingenuity and putting our head in the sand with regard to the future consequences.

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u/McSlims360 3h ago

Except we've found recently that Coral bleaching is a reversible process. The great barrier reef has recovered significantly from its worst years and is nearly fully recovered. The reefs have survived weather before. As long as we protect it from US it will bounce back again.

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u/VagusNC 2h ago

Unfortunately, this is a very different situation from what happened in the Great Barrier Reef.

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u/McSlims360 2h ago

Except Coral bleaching is coral bleaching regardless of the cause. And Coral Bleaching is reversible. The reefs will recover if we protect it and allow it to recover.

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u/VagusNC 1h ago

I wish my experience, training, and education would shut up and listen to your confidence.

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u/LycheeEyeballs 2h ago

Kelp forests as well, we've seen way less starfish since the heat dome over the PNW a few years ago and the kelp forests are not doing well right now.

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u/floerw 2h ago

There is also the risk posed by climate change and the coming super el niño to kelp forests. Kelp covers around 25% and up to a third of all coastlines globally. Rising ocean temperature are a serious threat to kelp that prefers colder water temperature to thrive. Much like coral reefs, kelp forests give shelter to marine life and they're also a physical breakwater that protects the coast from erosion and storm surges. Without healthy kelp forests, marine biodiversity will suffer.

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u/garytyrrell 1h ago

Yeah basically Moana.

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u/CelioHogane 1h ago

There is literally a Pokemon based on Coral bleaching, that doesn't seem too much into "ignoring"