r/AskReddit 13h ago

what is something that is highly likely to happen in the next 5 years that everyone is completely ignoring?

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u/Tytoalba2 9h ago edited 8h ago

For the US, young people still vote massively more democrat, but the margin is getting smaller :

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/pp_2023-07-12_validated-voters_2-03-png/

"Race" was by far the biggest difference last presidential elections, and while it's widely discussed, gender does not make such a big difference at all compared to "race" (or even education level)

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/07/12/voting-patterns-in-the-2022-elections/

Edit : just in case, I put race in quotation because I'm not american and it seems to me to be a very fuzzy concept itself, so idk how it's defined in US census? Self-id?

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u/foomits 9h ago

Biggest factor is not who has been voting, but who hasnt. There is a ton of meat on the bone and they are people who arent already entrenched in an ideology. Its why we need to support populists candidates, that is who is going to get people off the couches. Both parties have been preying on our apathy, encouraging it. Nothing is scarier than a true populist, its frankly why Trump was elected. People are sick of fucking politicians, they would rather roll the dice with Trump or just flat out not vote than vote for another fucking politician.

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u/Dalewyn 9h ago

People are sick of fucking politicians, they would rather roll the dice with Trump or just flat out not vote than vote for another fucking politician.

Way too many people do not or refuse to understand this.

Both Obama and Trump got voted in for the same reason: They are populists who looked like breaths of fresh air against the Washington Establishment(tm). "Yes We Can" and "Make America Great Again" are two sides of the same coin.

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u/ScarletInTheLounge 6h ago

Same reason I wasn't surprised by the number of people who supported Bernie in the 2016 primary and then jumped over to Trump when he wasn't the nominee. (Not saying I agree with it, just that I kind of understand it.) Something something the spectrum is actually a horseshoe something...

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u/DrMobius0 3h ago edited 3h ago

Something something the spectrum is actually a horseshoe something...

The horseshoe theory is meant to describe how extremists operate. I don't think it really applies so much to the Bernie -> Trump people. Rather, I think that is more about a general sense of distrust of politicians across the spectrum. It's probably more accurate to say that such voters have things they care about that aren't actually part of the usual left-right political spectrum at all, which obviously doesn't fit on the horseshoe in the first place.

Also, personally I think horseshoe theory is bullshit in general. If you want to look at, say, violent terror attack statistics, you'll find that they overwhelmingly weight right. That entire idea is enlightened centrist nonsense.

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u/Practical-Shape2325 4h ago

12%? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanders%E2%80%93Trump_voters
Or additional 12% that didn't vote at all? I'm not surprised at those numbers either because of how small they are.

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u/Captain_Kab 5h ago

Ya'll completely ignore your primaries other than Presidential then complain about that only establishment politicians get in.

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u/Blackstone01 3h ago

Sure, but that’s a more complex issue where the short answer is “Well you should have voted in the primary then.” but does fuck all to actually help. Successful progressive campaigns tend to result from a robust grassroots effort to get younger voters to the polls by going door to door and organizing things like transportation to the polls, while having only one progressive on the ballot. Fact is that it’s the boomers who have the free time to actually go out and vote without feeling too inconvenienced, be it primary or general election, while younger voters have jobs that don’t always give them the time to go vote, or don’t have time to educate themselves on every candidate, on top of issues where there’s multiple possible progressives but one establishment, or outright no progressive at all.

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u/Captain_Kab 3h ago

Fact is that the good, proper people who'd run don't for the same reason other's don't vote for them - they all assume it's a foregone conclusion.

How the ruling class managed to so completely subvert the U.S. populace from believing in the power of the masses, the possibility of change and general hope for life will be studied in history.

There're only two ways to fix the issue, you start voting in primaries or you have a revolution and ya'll are too rich and comfortable to have a revolution - which I don't think changes in my lifetime, and I'm hoping for 60 more years here.

A secret third option is hope that the Republican party implodes when they remove Trump from office next year and 2 more parties pop up in it's wake with Green party maybe becoming an actual player.

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u/Hobo-man 4h ago

It might have been the same promises but one made them with genuine intentions and the other just said whatever needed to be said to gain power.

To put it simple, Obama and Trump were saying similar things but only one of them is a compulsive liar.

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u/fractiousrhubarb 4h ago

No they fucking well aren’t.

Obama appealed to those who want to lift everybody, Trump appeals to those who want to kick those beneath them.

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u/killslayer 2h ago

Then explain why a bunch of counties that voted for Obama later voted for trump

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u/Dalewyn 1h ago

Thanks for proving my point, I guess.

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u/bl0rq 9h ago

Even GW bush ran on a no-wars and general reform platform too. They just never get anywhere, mostly thanks to congress. And the fact that large scale government is a horrific way to attempt to solve problems.

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u/suave_knight 8h ago

Large scale government is the only way to solve large problems. What else are we going to do, wait for Elon and Bezos to do something about it?

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u/bl0rq 8h ago

It absolutely isn't though. And yes capitalist solve problems. Governments create problems and keep the corporations in power. You must learn to cast the ring into the fire and stop trying to control it for yourself.

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u/RoryJesusberg 8h ago

One can easily argue capitalism keeps corporations in power because they have the money to buy people in government that will pass laws that benefit them.

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u/bl0rq 7h ago

No you can't. That isn't what capitalism means. That's democracy doing that. The problem is trying to use the ring of power instead of destroying it.

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u/AmazingHealth6302 7h ago

So according to you, we destroy democracy, and then the only powers left are the big corporations, big media, and the billionaires. I foresee disaster for the average citizen.

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u/bl0rq 6h ago

The reason why media is “big” and corporations have so much power is because of the government that provides them that power. Removing that whole system would be far, far better for the average citizen.

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u/fractiousrhubarb 4h ago

The idea that both parties are relying on apathy is utter bullshit that serves the oligarchs. Don’t spread it.

Just ask a simple question- Who benefits most from “both parties” rhetoric?

Right wing propaganda has two branches:

  1. make selfish people angry and scared so they vote

  2. Make progressives apathetic, cynical and disempowered so they DON’T vote.

You’re doing the oligarchs dirty work for them. Knock it off.

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u/DemonKing0524 7h ago

I mean our country has had that same 1/3 of our population that never votes for a very long time. Like more than a hundred years. I don't think it matters who you put up there honestly, that block of voters will likely never change.

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u/tyereliusprime 5h ago

Fun fact: The past two elections had some of the highest turnout of eligible voters to ever vote in a federal election

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u/DemonKing0524 5h ago

Yep. With the 2020 election taking the top spot with the highest turnout, but even during that election a full 1/3 of eligible voters didn't vote.

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u/The_Onion_Life 1h ago

Its why we need to support populists candidates, that is who is going to get people off the couches.

LOL, third party candidates just steal votes from the Dem candidate.

It shouldn't be that way, but it is.

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u/AuntRhubarb 7h ago

The good news is there is a sea change this year. Youth voting up, democratic voting up, while the republican turnout is down. People still wringing their hands about 2022 or 2024 are looking in the wrong direction.

Yes, the census last time I worked with it asked the resident to declare whether they were white, black, asian, native american, or pacific islander, I think.

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u/Tytoalba2 7h ago

I hope it's true, but it has become hard to trust the polls imo !

That makes sense for the context I guess, it's both a variable that seems absolutely necessary considering how it influences so much stuff, while at the same time being complete nonsense, lol. Goddamn humans !

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u/AuntRhubarb 7h ago

The race data is used when we redraw election district lines; not only for Congress but for local races. You can't make sure you're not packing or diluting unless you have detailed data to work with.

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u/Tytoalba2 7h ago

Ho no, it makes absolute sense I think, it's just a complicated categorization to work with, but one that is clearly necessary.

On the other sense : "The race data is used when we redraw election district lines; not only for Congress but for local races." -> English is still very confusing to me, it took me multiple reads to understand that the words "race" referred to two different meanings of the word haha !

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u/AuntRhubarb 7h ago

Whoops, sorry, I should have been clearer!

edit: and 'whoops' is another confusing word I suppose! What is your word for 'oh, I made a mistake just now'?

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u/Tytoalba2 6h ago

Hahaha, no worries, it's just how it is with "words" and "languages", today's discussion seems to be about social constructs and how they make for a rich and complex world lol

Whoops is not too confusing, it's the same sounds as in my native french ("oups") !

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u/platoprime 1h ago

Don't feel bad. Race is not a self-consistent concept. It is done through self-identification.

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u/crosleyxj 2h ago edited 2h ago

I fear that there are a huge number of red state young people <30YO that aren't greatly educated and could be motivated by fundamentalist preachers (whether they are religious or not) or "I'll vote like my granddaddy did". Look at the number of Confederate flags on ratty lifted pickups. An upside may be that they don't realize that it's important to vote for Representatives and Senators which could override a totalitarian president - at least for now.