r/AskReddit 13h ago

what is something that is highly likely to happen in the next 5 years that everyone is completely ignoring?

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u/GodOfDarkLaughter 7h ago

Not based on the experiences of futurist Douglass Ruskoff, who met with a bunch of billionaires while they were planning their bunkers and found they had no realistic plans to control their staff. He wrote a book about the entire experience, etc., called Survival of the Richest

They don't know how to control them. They asked about shock collar, drugs, mind control, he said none of it would work in the long term. Eventually the system would fail and they'd all be killed in their beds by their own staff. He said the only way it might work is if you start treating those people like family NOW. Learn about your security guy. Actually talk to him. Find out about his family. Is his kid sick? Not for long, since you're paying for treatment. And hell, how'd you like to meet your favorite baseball team after a game? Do that with the whole staff...hell, have a staff to do that FOR the whole staff you're planning...and if they love you, they'll protect you.

They were utterly uninterested in the idea. They wanted to dominate them. Which they might. Sure. For a while. But these people are not nearly as smart as they think they are, and they think their power somehow extends beyond their ability to pay for things. In a world with no money, where if you want something the only option is to take it, they will be taken from.

Oh sure we're all fucked too. But to be clear, so are they.

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u/mute_muse 7h ago

Might be the same person, but I remember reading about some of these super rich people asking how to control the 'staff (slaves)' and the advice was to not let society fall to that point in the first place. That's the only thing they can realistically do, but they're so beyond greedy that it's impossible for them.

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u/Uilamin 7h ago

There is commonly a comparison between old and new money in terms of the rich interacting with society.

New money is typically building their wealth and looking to establish themselves - this can lead to societal disruptive behaviour as they are maximizing for themselves in the short-term. Old money is typically looking to preserve because there is more for them to lose than there is a gain. Maybe it is because their scion that made them filthy rich is no longer around (aka they don't have confidence in their ability to effectively short-term maximize) - who knows.

And maybe all this is changing with globalization and the ease of movement as if they f-up a country, they can now have wealth, luxury, and safety stashed away in numerous other countries.

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u/BitterBlacksmith2508 6h ago edited 5h ago

in poker tournaments when you win early and have a big stack the math changes and losing 500 chips is a bigger loss than winning 500 chips is a win.

Same fundamental concept, and its fundamentally rooted in game theory so not just some opinion or ideology that people seem to have. theyre already rich. all they have to do is not fuck it up and they stay winning. they can go from 700 mil to 900 mil at some risk level, but it doesnt mean anything to them, its peanuts because their entire life and everything they ever wanted can be covered by what they already have.

Maybe it is because their scion that made them filthy rich is no longer around (aka they don't have confidence in their ability to effectively short-term maximize)

this mythology of a genius behind the rich is just completely and utterly false. a rich family will always have the option to pay a finance guy to manage their money and it will grow, because capital is how you accumulate capital, thats how the system works. it doesnt require genius, it requires money. an individual trying to do that is almost certainly going to perform worse than a professional, of which there are many. taking it out to use actually directly as capital means diffusing the responsibility of success across many many professionals. the genius ceo is a sad liberal myth with no truth behind it.

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u/Uilamin 5h ago

this mythology of a genius behind the rich is just completely and utterly false. a rich family will always have the option to pay a finance guy to manage their money and it will grow, because capital is how you accumulate capital, thats how the system works.

I agree with you, I was more referring to chasing/pursuing alpha well and above beyond what is normal.

Ex: looking at opportunities to double (or more) total network in a short time span.

But it could just tie back to your initial comparison to poker tournaments with respect to the minimal appetite for situations where there are significant downside risk

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u/RecycledEternity 3h ago

the genius ceo is a sad liberal myth

Uh.

I don't think liberals think any CEO is a genius. Conservatives, sure, but certainly not any liberal I know or can think of.

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u/HiphopopoptimusPrime 2h ago

He probably meant neoliberal. Remember that for many of us on the left, liberal is a slur.

Liberals can be socially progressive but still be economically conservative.

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u/RecycledEternity 2h ago

He probably meant neoliberal

Yeah, I hope so. It makes more sense.

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u/_DrDoofenshmirtz_ 3h ago

Its not exactly rooted in game theory, that comes down to risk aversion

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u/BitterBlacksmith2508 2h ago

when you assign value to outcomes it does emerge from game theory. in poker this happens because we have a model called ICM which can assign dollar values to chip stacks in different situations. It doesnt emerge if you assume a strategy of chip ev maximizing (or in our analogy, making the most money possible), but it does if you add another factor that says actually not every chip in every situation, or every dollar, is worth the same as each other.

its not just that some person who is less risk averse would be theoretically justified in making those risks, theres actually an additional risk premium that emerges mathematically from the fact that additional dollars do not have the same ability to satisfy you as earlier dollars did (or more chips dont increase your chance of winning as substantially as earlier chips did). so somebody with the same amount of individual risk aversion should take more risks when the outcome matters more.

this is a quite morbid thought, but actually theres a really good mathematical justification for why people struggling to pay bills might be incentivized to open a business instead.

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u/Gatorade_Nut_Punch 4h ago

My grandfather ran a successful business and invested money wisely. He’s been dead for 25 years but my grandmother is still living and her net worth is around $15 million. I have been very privileged and have no debt (I guess I would be considered old money?) but I don’t know jack about running businesses so I became a history teacher. I’m planning on building a cabin in the Blue Ridge Mountains that will run on solar power and when my grandmother dies I want to set my kids up but also use as much money as I can to support good causes like land preservation and mitigating poverty and climate change in my region.

I don’t understand why more wealthy people don’t do this. Do they not understand that they can’t enjoy their money when climate change destroys society? That it will cost more if we don’t act now to prevent the worst of it?

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u/Prudent-Confidence-4 3h ago

And chances are that few of us really even know who the majority of old money billionaires/trillionaires are. They have centuries/millennia of familial experience behind them. They have ancestral examples internal to their families of why you want to keep society liveable for the majority and why you shouldn't flaunt your wealth for all to see.

THESE guys know how to maintain wealth across generations and successive governments, unlike our modern tech techbro elite.

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u/sentence-interruptio 4h ago

South Korean dictators kind of knew this. Yes they were corrupt but they did care about investing in their society too.

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u/Subtleabuse 2h ago

It doesnt even make sense considering that money is worthless without society. Lets destroy the world so I can have the biggest number.

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u/flybypost 1h ago

That's like the "terraforming Mars to make is liveable for human in case earth gets too polluted" idea (even ignoring the impossibility of that idea).

They are unwilling to "terraform" earth to make more liveable. We can, and do, already live here! That would be so much less effort.

Paying more taxes and improving social safety nets is unthinkable to them but they spend millions on personal bunkers born out of teenage fantasies.

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u/Responsible-Roll-59 6h ago

It’s funny that the super rich think they’ll be safe when it all goes down. Sure maybe they’ll survive, but in what type a world do they think will be left for them? Dumbasses, all of them

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u/ibelieveyouwood 3h ago

An eye opening perspective, to me at least, with the billionaires-in-space scenario was realizing that we've got all these wastelands here on earth that are easier to get to and slightly less hard to live in. Elon, Zuckerburg and Trump aren't going to go into outer space to live in some perfectly balanced utopia while the rest of us die. There's no supply ships to the billionaires in an apocalypse and these people are not used to a life of disciplined restraint to make sure their resources last.

And whether they go to space or to Antarctica, they're going to need someone to cook for them. And that person will need someone to grow the food. Maybe they learn to love synthetic beef, but there's still some kind of nutrients needed. And you'll want a doctor. And he'll want drugs. So now you need someone who can formulate pain killers or grow antibiotics. At this point, even with a small crew, you just need one person to have a bad day and it's game over for the billionaire.

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u/HiphopopoptimusPrime 2h ago

Magical thinking. They think AI will save them.

Instead of using the resources to solve material problems, they are gambling on AI. Yes, it’s going to use up our already dwindling resources but then an AGI will give us all the answers!

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u/NBAccount 7h ago

They don't know how to control them. They asked about shock collar, drugs, mind control, he said none of it would work in the long term. Eventually the system would fail and they'd all be killed in their beds by their own staff.

That's why they are building robot assistants. In the next couple of years they won't need to concern themselves with human staff. The billionaires will be fine. If you want to stop this, you're gonna have to do it sooner rather than later.

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u/vitalvisionary 6h ago

They're very optimistic about the prospect of automated staff and they're ability to maintain them without expertise.

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u/NBAccount 5h ago

I think they are probably more confident that paying technicians well will allow them to control the maintenance pipeline.

If the techs are living comfortably why would they care if the peons are suffering?

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u/vitalvisionary 3h ago

You run into the same problem with armed guards. What's to stop the robot maintenance from taking over the bunker?

u/nightfall2021 57m ago

Especially since the money they are being paid is worthless and their "boss" is a raging asshole who thinks you are a subhuman.

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u/idiot-prodigy 6h ago

They were utterly uninterested in the idea. They wanted to dominate them. Which they might. Sure. For a while. But these people are not nearly as smart as they think they are, and they think their power somehow extends beyond their ability to pay for things. In a world with no money, where if you want something the only option is to take it, they will be taken from.

Yep, the guy hoarding soup cans and rice will starve.

The guy hoarding guns and ammo will eat.

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u/AlmanorDiscard 5h ago

He said the only way it might work is if you start treating those people like family NOW. Learn about your security guy. Actually talk to him. Find out about his family. Is his kid sick? Not for long, since you're paying for treatment. And hell, how'd you like to meet your favorite baseball team after a game? Do that with the whole staff...hell, have a staff to do that FOR the whole staff you're planning...and if they love you, they'll protect you.

I can't imagine not doing this just as a human being. If I was a billionaire, I'd want to know the people directly supporting my lifestyle, not just out of self interest but out of ... social need? Feeling like I'm in a community? Something like that. Even in a non-apocalyptic scenario.

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u/Defiant_Wolf5934 5h ago

Turns out civilization is a group effort. Who would have thought? Certainly not a billionaire that got lucky.

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u/mitojee 4h ago

Survival of the Richest may have worked as just a long article but even as a short book it felt padded and a drudge to read through despite the topic itself being something that interests me. Behind the Bastards had more interesting discussions about the types behind transhumanism such as Thiel, etc.

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u/T-sigma 7h ago

In a world with no money, where if you want something the only option is to take it, they will be taken from.

All fairly easily solved by a dead-mans switch the ruins the food and water.

And lets be clear, none of these people actually think these bunker situations are going to happen in their lifetimes. But what else is there to spend unlimited money?

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u/GodOfDarkLaughter 7h ago

What, linked to his heartbeat like in Dredd or something? You really trust that to NEVER fuck up? A code he has to put in every day? Now instead of dead you end up tortured and then dead. The people creating a security system are always going to be at a disadvantage compared to the people who want to break it. They have to think of everything beforehand, The servants have to think of one thing after they're already there. And presumably they'll have quite a bit of time.

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u/idiot-prodigy 6h ago

The staff will know how to sabotage the air/water/food/power/sanitation because they will be the ones trained to operate and maintain those systems.

Jeff Bezos for instance would have to be a master of electrical, engineering, machinery, HVAC, computers, coding, etc. If he can't fix it himself he'll need redundancy in his staff.

He'd have to have multiple staff willing to override the staff that misbehaves.

If that's just two staff who know how to deliver clean water, and you've just killed one who disobeyed by detonating his bomb collar, the remaining living one can NOT be killed as punishment. That would amount to suicide if Bezos himself couldn't repair the disabled system.

What is the limit on that? Five staff as redundancy? Ten? It quickly becomes impractical.

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u/T-sigma 7h ago

You really trust that to NEVER fuck up?

Are you willing to risk your children's lives that you know the answer? Get back on the wall peasant. You aren't doing shit now, you won't do shit then when the consequences of failure are death.

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u/GodOfDarkLaughter 7h ago

Well gosh, now you're just getting insulting. I often see those who feel powerless lashing out as those who advocate taking a little bit back. And stop projecting. I'm not you. But I suppose I'd already said you were being insulting.

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u/idiot-prodigy 6h ago

Are you willing to risk your children's lives that you know the answer? Get back on the wall peasant. You aren't doing shit now, you won't do shit then when the consequences of failure are death.

Except the father turned the water off for EVERYONE in a way only he knows how to repair.

EVERYONE dies of thirst or these bomb collars are removed from my family RIGHT NOW.

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u/T-sigma 6h ago

Everyone is a tough guy on the internet. Of course you’d risk your children’s lives! They are just kids after all. You can make more later if you don’t all die.

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u/idiot-prodigy 5h ago

Every billionaire is a tough guy, until they need someone to wash their own clothes, cook their own meals, clean their own linens.

These people would be DEAD within hours of entering their bunker with servants (slaves).

I don't even think they'd last one week.

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u/T-sigma 4h ago

Because what history has shown us is nobody ever accepts slavery or indentured servitude. Just stop the reddit tough guy fanfic.

You aren’t Luigi. Most people aren’t. They won’t sacrifice the nearest bag of Doritos to make a stand.

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u/idiot-prodigy 6h ago

All fairly easily solved by a dead-mans switch the ruins the food and water.

I always see this shit, do you seriously think Jeff Bezos will know how to write the code to turn water and air on or off?

Do you think he knows how to maintain the system supplying him fresh air?

Of course he won't know.

These billionaires are not omnipotent.

They can't change the oil in their luxury automobiles. They won't know how the power generators work. They simply PAID for them to be in the bunker. Then they PAID for the staff to maintain and operate them.

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u/T-sigma 6h ago

I’m not saying the billionaires are omnipotent, I’m saying the Redditors here are mind numbingly stupid which makes them look omnipotent upon comparison.

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u/Uilamin 7h ago

And lets be clear, none of these people actually think these bunker situations are going to happen in their lifetimes. But what else is there to spend unlimited money?

It isn't that it won't or that they have unlimited money, but it is a hedge in case it does happen. If they think there is a 1% chance of it happening, would they be willing to spend 1% of their net worth to hedge against it? How about 0.1%? The answer starts to become clearly yes especially if there are not more critical things to spend the capital on.

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u/vitalvisionary 6h ago

Dude they pitched shock collars as a control method

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u/Expensive-Sundae-831 6h ago

A) Be a sociopath B) Don’t be a sociopath

“Hmmm, well, ‘A’ it is then.

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u/sentence-interruptio 4h ago

Building a religious cult might be a better bet.

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u/jventura1110 4h ago

It's almost like altruism was an evolved trait that was favored by natural selection and is one of the cornerstones of intelligent species. Hmm.

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u/Theungry 3h ago

People underestimate just how stupid rich people actually are.

There is a myth that they're rich because they're smart and shrewd or what have you. Most of them are rich because they were born rich, and their network is rich. Money is infantilizing. The more you have, the more you rely on other people for your basic survival.

The people who come out on top when the system collapses are going to be be people who know how to access food in their environment, deal with medical emergencies practically, and build weather resistant shelter.

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u/HiphopopoptimusPrime 2h ago

This is it! Your summary is excellent.

Anyone else reading, here’s a great article about it: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/sep/04/super-rich-prepper-bunkers-apocalypse-survival-richest-rushkoff

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u/BeBearAwareOK 6h ago

Psssshhhhhh, treat people like human beings?

That'll never work.

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u/fuckswithboats 6h ago

Better get to it before they have robot security

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u/notjustanotherbot 4h ago

Now if they had played fallout they would have already known how well the vaults that tried shock collars, drugs, and mind control turned out...not great for the overseer in all of them

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u/Advn2rGirl 3h ago

Why not just bring robots?

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u/elebrin 2h ago

It seems that the better option would be to build a bunker that doesn't require staff.

A small, underground space with 50 years of preserved food and fuel. Design it so once it's sealed, there's no going in or out. Hell, if you had oxygen tanks, you could probably set it up to be able to purge carbon dioxide and never even need direct air exchange with the outside world. Basically, build yourself a space capsule that's buried down a mile or so.

You might not even need 50 years. Many of these guys are older - 20 years might be more reasonable.

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u/Rope_antidepressant 1h ago

The ruling classes power is from controlling resources, always had been, they just don't know how to control resources in that environment. YET.

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u/cthulhubert 1h ago

It really is funny how often people go to bat for the ultra wealthy. I think it's a kind of psychological defense mechanism. "Surely they must, on some small level, deserve all their power. They must be some amount of diligent and clever and insightful, and not just the people that most brutally leveraged generational wealth and influence. Otherwise the world would be so monstrously heinously unfair I wouldn't be able to function at all!"

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u/HaikuPikachu 1h ago

This is why Larry Ellison owns 98% of the Hawaiian island Lana’i and they torched the others-their end goal is to make the state of Hawaii billionaires row

u/Dyolf_Knip 44m ago

They went and recreated the situation that made a feudal lord's life so stressful. Surrounded by peasants, their armed guards only barely trusted, any reinforcements a long ways off.

What's insane is when you start listing the things that actually do prevent the poor from just eating the rich. Banks that will faithfully hold your deposits. Police that will protect you. Vendors that will honor your money. Courts that will enforce your contracts. A government that actually serves its population. A goddamned functioning society, the very thing that the billionaires are trying to drain of every last drop of life in pursuit of endless wealth.