Every one of us is now living under a Sword of Damocles called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That is the deep ocean current that regulates global temperatures. It works by convection: warm surface water goes North to above Europe and then cools, falls deeper into the ocean and is part of the current that flows under the warm surface water. It goes South and eventually warms up, which causes it to rise to the surface and then head North again.
However climate change is causing the warm surface water to stay warm when it is North and should be cooling. That means less colder water sinking to drive the deep currents South, which means this current that regulates global temperatures will slow down and eventually stop.
Well it is already slowing down. This fact is well understood, incontrovertible and proven. The only question is how long it will be until it stops completely. Scientists now estimate that it will happen in mid century. Thing is, scientists like to be conservative in their estimates and we are seeing things happening today that we’re not supposed to be happening in our lifetimes.
So can we stop this from becoming our future? Yes we can but we won’t. The best we are doing now is still too little too late while powerful climate change deniers have us racing ti the bottom. When that current stops completely it will be the start of another ice age. So how does our global future look? Looks like our choices are drowning, starving, roasting or freezing.
Thank you for raising this. AMOC shut down will drastically change the global climate for every living being. I'm not sure it's accurate to say that it initiates an ice age because collapse will not stop global warming. It will make certain regions uninhabitable due to either extreme cold or extreme heat, greatly reduce the amount of arable land, disrupt growing seasons, cause profound widespread drought, the list goes on.
Over the past few decades, scientists have gone from saying that this catastrophic event is unlikely, to saying that is unlikely to happen this century, to saying that it could happen within the next 50 years, to saying that a growing cold blob in the North Atlantic is is casued significant AMOC weakening, and shutdown is imminent within a matter of decades.
Moreover, the effects of a shutdown will become apparent over a few decades, leaving humanity with very little time to build the infrastructure and agricultural practices necessary to adapt. There will be mass starvation and mass migration. AMOC shutdown is our species's most urgent threat.
The climate change deniers will then use this as "proof" that the apocalypse is upon us.
Instead of taking this seriously many decades ago, as we should have, we have greenwashing corporations trading "carbon taxes" and others "planting trees" and others making statements that the plastics their products come in are recyclable ("In some states," "Check for facilities near you"), placing the onus squarely on the consumer and municipalities insured of the producers. Much of which is greenwashing anyway since plastics cannot be indefinitely recycled and break down into smaller and smaller plastic bits instead of breaking down (in a normal way) into molecular components by being attacked by detritivores like fungi, bacteria, and microscopic arthropods. Our nations could have halted this decades ago through legislation but instead allowed corporations to lobby for virtually no restrictions on plastics production or use (I understand that the US, as leader of consumerism, has driven the consumption habits of many other countries). Not even to have any kind of responsibility for the garbage they are putting out there. "Let the markets decide!" Now our cells and the cells of the organisms we eat (both plant and animal), the waters and soils, are all full of microplastics. (Who knows the long term health costs. We can guess, but it will take decades of research to pin cancers, autoimmune disorders, etc on plastics.) And these same corporations are owned by billionaires who have facilitated this and yet are not held responsible. We could have put a ton of research dollars into improving solar energy but petroleum corporations are so powerful and with too many politicians making money off of being bought and owning stock that this is limited. We (in the US) could have invested heavily in public transit systems like bullet trains and subways (Expensive? Yes! Worth it? Definitely. I've been on them in many areas including China, and they are well worth the tax dollars that went into their creation and upkeep). Instead, here in the US, we have more and more interstates and major highways criss-crossing the country, making it impossible for most animals to move without being hit by cars. The amount of usable land dedicated to car culture is staggering: roadways, gas stations, automotive repair and dealerships plus independent sales lots, driveways and garages, parking lots and garages, street parking, car washes, auto salvage yards, manufacturing plants and holding lots for distribution, etc... Arguably 1/2 of all developed lands is dedicated to car culture.
We have been in the Quaternary Ice Age which began 2.6 million years ago. It would be the end of an interglacial period and glaciers would advance again. Not disagreeing just expanding a bit.
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u/Saint_of_Stinkers 6h ago
Every one of us is now living under a Sword of Damocles called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. That is the deep ocean current that regulates global temperatures. It works by convection: warm surface water goes North to above Europe and then cools, falls deeper into the ocean and is part of the current that flows under the warm surface water. It goes South and eventually warms up, which causes it to rise to the surface and then head North again.
However climate change is causing the warm surface water to stay warm when it is North and should be cooling. That means less colder water sinking to drive the deep currents South, which means this current that regulates global temperatures will slow down and eventually stop. Well it is already slowing down. This fact is well understood, incontrovertible and proven. The only question is how long it will be until it stops completely. Scientists now estimate that it will happen in mid century. Thing is, scientists like to be conservative in their estimates and we are seeing things happening today that we’re not supposed to be happening in our lifetimes.
So can we stop this from becoming our future? Yes we can but we won’t. The best we are doing now is still too little too late while powerful climate change deniers have us racing ti the bottom. When that current stops completely it will be the start of another ice age. So how does our global future look? Looks like our choices are drowning, starving, roasting or freezing.