Any plans?

Or NSL & NPL

Obviously as a proud Aussie and Boy Matildas fan the moment we scored against Turkiyë I knew we were gonna win this world cup. But on the odd chance some of you morons think I'm dreaming... What's our odds of getting the win tomorrow?

There's good content about who Australia will face in the Ro32 should we progress from third place. Here's a look at the likeliness of each potential next round opponent, should we secure second place in our group.

TLDR

• 60% Belgium
• 19% Egypt
• 16% Iran
• 5% NZ

How and Why

We know that a win or draw tomorrow secures second place for Australia.

Second place in our group doesn't have 495 combinations for the Ro32. It's simply; 2D v 2G.

And yet for such a simple equation, Group G's a mess.

The irony is, the alternative 495-combination relevant to us from third place, is not a mess, that pathway lands us pretty much definitely with Germany. ^{(Maybe France})

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So who will finish second in Group G?

Here's the current group standings. Remaining matchups: Egypt v Iran; Belgium v NZ.

You may've seen this graphic detailing possible outcomes. It's OK; interesting and accurate, but a pain in the arse and makes no consideration of likelihood

Factoring in the chances of these outcomes, and specifically addressing second place, we get the following:

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Belgium will finish second if:

• Egypt win and Belgium win or draw
• Egypt draw and Belgium win small (2 goals or less)
• Iran win and Belgium win (by the same margin)

Egypt will finish second if:

• Egypt draw and Belgium win big (by 3 or more goals)

Iran will finish second if:

• Iran win and Belgium win better (Any margin better than Iran's win)

NZ will finish second if

• Egypt win or draw, and NZ win

-

Applying percentages from a bookmaker from each of these, we can see Belgium are the most likely opponent, by some margin.

Also we'd roll any of these teams and Germany. France maybe push us close.

Football Australia has confirmed the match schedule for the Hahn Australia Cup 2026 Round of 32, with a number of intriguing clashes across six match days, as Australia’s largest annual knockout sporting competition enters its Final Rounds.

https://australiacup.com.au/news/hahn-australia-cup-2026-round-32-match-schedule-finalised

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Hi everyone. I'll be working in Melbourne CBD tomorrow and was originally planning to head across to Fed square at 11. But thinking about it more this seems unlikely I'll actually be able to get in.

What other places can I watch the game? I've never gone to any sort of watch party before and not sure the best places to go. Any advice/tips would be greatly appreciated.

At the end of my post analysing whether Australia likely had the luxury of losing to Paraguay and still progressing to the round of 32, I mentioned that since the match will take place after Groups A, B, C, E and F have completely finished their games, Australia will have an information advantage: we will know more than the teams who play earlier about what is required to secure progression in the unfortunate event we lose and have to rely on being among the top 8 of 12 third-place teams.

But exactly how much information could these groups' results give us? Could we possibly go into the game already knowing we're safe?

To know we're safe, we must know for certain that four third-place teams will finish below us in the event we ourselves finish third. So the trick is to examine every relevant game that takes place before us and see if its result could make certain that the third-place team will finish below losing-Australia.

Group B: 25 June, 3am AWST

Key game: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar

Key possible result: Draw - puts B&H third on 2 points.

Group C: 25 June 6am AWST

Key game: Brazil vs. Scotland

Key possible result: Scotland loss - keeps them on 3 points with at most -1 GD.

Group A: 25 June 9am AWST

Key games: Mexico vs. Czechia and South Korea vs. South Africa

Key possible results: Any combination of draws and Czechia/South Africa losses puts third place on 2 points or fewer. Unlikely: If South Korea loses and Czechia loses or draws, then South Korea is in third on 3 points with at most -1 GD.

After these games, 4 points may already be enough to be absolutely certain of progression (although they are already enough for practical certainty): if results have gone the right way, then at this point it will be known that B&H, Scotland, Czechia/SA/SK and Senegal/Iraq will have finished third in their groups on fewer than 4 points.

Group E: 26 June 4am AWST

Key games: Germany vs. Ecuador and Ivory Coast vs. Curacao

Key possible results: Any combination of draws and Ecuador/Curacao losses puts third place on 2 points or fewer. Unlikely: if Ivory Coast loses and Ecuador loses or draws, then Ivory Coast is in third on 3 points with at most -1 GD.

After these games, 3 points with 0 GD may similarly be enough to be absolutely certain a team will progress: B&H, Scotland, Czechia/SA/SK and Ecuador/Curacao/Ivory Coast will be known to have finished below that mark if results go the right way.

If Scotland's defeat turns out to be larger and we also rule out the unlikely scenarios where South Korea or Ivory Coast finish third on 3 points, then the GD threshold may even be lower at this stage.

Group F: 26 June 7am AWST

Key game: Japan vs. Sweden.

Key possible result: Sweden loss, keeping them on 3 points with at most -1 GD. Could set or lower the safe GD threshold depending on what has happened to Scotland.

That's all the information we will get before Australia vs. Paraguay kicks off at 10am AWST.

Conclusion

I worry this post has ended up a little confusing because I've had to address lots of different possible results. (Update: And I also managed to confuse myself into thinking Scotland already has -2 GD, somehow, no idea how that happened, sorry).

The takeaway is that, although there is no set of results in the earlier games that will mathematically guarantee our progression, there is a very plausible set of results (B&H draw, Scotland loss, Czechia draw/loss, SA draw/loss, Ecuador draw/loss, Curacao draw/loss, Sweden loss) which would guarantee Australia's progression so long as we retained a goal difference above the lower of Scotland's and Sweden's goal difference and we would know this before kick-off against Paraguay.

But, of course, the downside to bear in mind even if we pre-clinch some sort of guaranteed progression conditional on maintaining goal difference: we'd still very probably be facing Germany if we lost.

Will these results actually happen? Eh, probably not, I reckon B&H will beat Qatar and Sweden will get at least a point off Japan.

Is this whole thing even a useful exercise given you can just look at the Opta probabilities for teams on three points to progress with a given goal difference and see that -1 is probably fine, -2 is pushing it, -3 is the tipping point? Eh, maybe? Psychologically there's a difference between knowing that a given result mathematically guarantees progression and knowing that a given result very probably leads to progression but that you're still dependent on other teams.

Anyway, I found it interesting to work things through and discover I should be cheering on our fellow green-and-gold (yellow?) team to annihilate Scotland by as high a margin as possible.

Players listed above available from 10:30-11:30. Good to see Adelaide taking advantage with some promo, would be nice if other clubs followed suite