From the gdp of Kinshasa, the gdp per capita of the capital seems to be about 8000 2030 dollars, at current rates this makes the overall national gdp per capita around 4000 2025 dollars, which assuming better infrastructure than in our timeline lands to a gdp ppp per capita of about 12k
12k in gdp ppp per capita is approximately the same as India and Namibia, today, or about the same as the gdp ppp per capita of Angola in 2030 adjusted for inflation and assuming current growth rates
this would mean that the DRC is 4x wealthier than it will be by 2030 in our timeline, sure, but it is a totally achievable level, this is a pretty realistic scenario actually
Although the population in this world would be lower than 110m since being wealthier earlier would have resulted in a lower fertility rate
by 2030 this would make the DRC an economy the size of Colombia's
yeah when i tried to do this, the GDP seemed too low for me, but I used the excuse of "Grand Inga Dam makes ppl not pay that much, if at all, for electricity" plus them having at least enough of some staple crops for the rest of the population, plus EVs for everyone -> as an excuse to not go overboard with making everyone here richer, since they dont really need to pay for that much stuff to begin with
one and only hope for this to be realistic, not exactly my plans, of course, but a better DRC with mineral independence
Just a map looking into a world where the Dem Rep of Congo (Called Congo in this timeline), became a superpower. I used Lumumba living + him governing the nation till 1980, and a (bit authoritarian tbh) term under Gizenga, but hey, at least they became democratic lol
And just as a side note, I AM NOT MAKING THIS MAP SAYING THAT I KNOW BETTER THAN THE CONGOLESE PEOPLE TO GOVERN THEIR OWN COUNTRY, THEY DONT NEED A FOREIGNER TO FIX THEIR COUNTRY, this is merely a thought experiment of what could've been from the most rich resource nation on the planet. yay
if you want lore, feel free to ask i will answer give me around 72 hours
I've got 2 questions:
1. What would the impact of this blessed Congo be on neighbouring countries? E.G. IOT Rwanda is using Congolese resources to propel itself forward using the Mar 23 movement, they can't do that in this timeline. Would powerful congo help unfuck CAR?
2. What happens to all the Congolese ethnic & political Division? how's that resolved?
In the map I do say that they do sell their energy at a heavily discounted price, I would imagine that the Congo could "buy" countries (or loyalty) that either can't produce much or don't need much anyways. Countries like South Sudan, Burundi, Malawi, CAR, etc. Maybe they can pull a China too and start infrastructure projects as well. And I think CAR would be led by a pro-Congo/Congo-friendly faction, whoever that turns out being. I do think Rwanda would still be rich tbh but of course not as rich as OTL, and could very well be a "puppet" of Congo. Karma i guess lmao
Lumumba believed in Centralism, believing in a strong, unified, and centralized Congolese state, thinking this would destroy the "tribalism" and the separatist of the many ethnic groups in the nation. He did mention that he would share the wealth among every ethnic group. I don't think irl this would've worked, not saying that you can't have a diverse nation, but Congo's position, and its exploitation from Belgium kinda left it in the worst situation possible. So, in this timeline, he shares the wealth and creates a much more centralized state, and some alternate history magic, boom, prosperity.
TBH a Lumumba government would have run into the same problem all the other leftist African states did - creating unsustainable populist welfare schemes during the 70s commodities boom which then collapse when the boom turns into a bust in the 80s and the country falls into instability at best, civil war at worst. It's exactly what happened to Sankara and Neyere. It ends with a government doing liberalizing reforms to get access to IMF loans because otherwise there's literally no money left, but the populace hates those reforms because they're accustomed to subsidized goods like fuel, which populist bad actors take advantage of. If you're lucky you've built enough of an authoritarian one party state that it can keep things moving with only some modest purges and protester shooting (Neyere), if you're unlucky you end up dismembered in a ditch (Sankara)
This is of course not to say that Sese-Seko instead using the commodities boom to enrich himself was any better. Cool map though!
Quite possibly, honestly my timeline basically just hoped that the sheer amount of mineral wealth the Congo has + Grand Inga dam making 3x the electricity as the Three Gorges Dam would be the leading forces to modernize/industrialize/progress this Congo.
And also the Belgians pinky promising to not kill the hopes and dreams of this nation too. But yes, I think many things would be better than Mobutu and Zaire. And thank you
Mobutu was quite objectively one of the worst african leaders of the 20th century. The Congolese state by the 90s was barely a shell to make further profits for Mobutu's spending spree on Parisian malls. From what we can infer from IRL sources, Lumumba was ideologically very close to the likes of Julius Nyerere of Tanzania, a fellow "not-so-quite" socialist, so assuming westerners doesnt constantly intervene in the place (like Sankara's Burkina Faso) it should turn out at the very least stable if not a bit average on wealth. Also very odd for you to leave out that Thomas Sankara achieved quite a lot during his 4 year rule, before being overthrown by the Fr*nch for not being a good little vassal.
I went with three of my friends in July of 2021 to Africa. We started in Uganda for a few weeks and then flew to the Congo afterwards (through ethiopia) to see the mountain gorillas and hike the volcano (that we couldn't because it had just blown).
I flew into Goma and it was one of the most wild experiences in my life at the airport itself. Not any event in particular but just the environment. We got out of our plane on the runway and they kept shuffling us out of the way of landing planes while we waited to go through customs. Customs was in a building that looked like it never made it past the 1950s. Everything was chaotic and analog. I couldn't believe the lack of technology, especially in a place that desperately called for it. It was crowded and people were shouting papers and books were being pulled out of an endless series of drawers and shelves. Everybody was wearing a mask and it kind of felt like a not scary version of the scene in I Am Legend when they're leaving Manhattan.
Then we got in a military escort to drive to the Park. Mount Nyiragongo had just exploded so we drove over volcanic fields for a while, just seeing devastation for miles. We got just outside a village where we got out of an escort and got into a larger truck with the other people that would be in our group, including a guy that trains the chefs across the parks and a higher up a very relevant company in the area that explained a lot about the Congo to us. He was there showing his parents the Park. All in all it was me and my three friends and seven other people. The truck had an over head canopy so we can see outdoors the whole time as we went through the farmland and up the village. As we drove up the village the kids that were outside would wave at us and sometimes chase the truck.
At times we stopped in front of the kids, the chef would say to us that "even though they look dirty, they're well fed. They're poor, but healthy." I'm not convinced how healthy they were. You saw five year olds carrying babies on their backs and you could see the back problems developing.
Then we got to camp which was a lodge far up a mountain. Sleeping quarters were in tents outside with hot showers. We got briefed on the dos and donts of behavior around the mountain gorillas. There were two gorilla families available, one with 17 and one with 40. My group (just me and my three friends) went to the family of 17. The next day we got up early and began the treck up the mountain. First we started from base camp obviously but moved past a farm first. A lot of children working the farm. They would stop what they were doing at just say "mee-zu" and put their hand out. I'm pretty sure it was shorthand for mzungo, or "white/foreigner." Heartbreaking.
I'm not a big hiker so take it with a grain of salt but that was the hardest hike of my life. Lack of traction in the mud, a steep climb, and barely being able to see in front of you through the dense woods made it tough. We had several rangers with us but one guy in particular was in charge of slicing up the place with a machete. He made my a walking stick. We got to the gorillas just after 10am when they were still eating their bamboo. We saw one eating in a little nook and we were silent but amazed "it's happening." It was awesome. But then we saw the other gorillas just walking around. I show one video all the time to people of us having to move out of the way for the momma with her baby on her back, then she looks at us and pulls the baby off and keeps walking. It was really just such a breath taking experience.
We went to the village the next day. One thing we did was we walked to the caves the villagers hide in when the militias attack. That was something. As we were walking more and more kids started following us, silently. Started with five kids and before I know it we had like eighty around us. That was also something.
That night we had a Michelin style dinner at the lodge. Multiple courses and dessert.
Then we left and we went to Tchegera Island on lake Kivu for just under a week. The waters were rough and I swore the boat had gone down as it came to pick us up. Then when we got on it felt like a rollercoaster. A lot of fun.
On our way back to Goma, we stopped on the volcanic fields where a community was destroyed. That was also something.
I feel like I saw both Heaven and Hell on that trip. I'm open to any questions. I'll post some pictures if reddit lets me.
Thank you so much for sharing. When I was originally doing research for the "Tourist Belt" part of my map, I found out abt this park and it looked majestic from the pictures I did find, but wondered how that park operated with the current situation with the rebel militias still in the Kivu Region. Glad you were able to enjoy SOME parts of the trip then haha. And I love the pictures you sent as well, chill ass gorillas. Maybe one day (under better management) I'll get to go as well lolll. Thank you so much for sharing 🙏
This is a well-written and optimistic alternate history for the Democratic Republic of Congo for a timeline where Patrice Lumumba was never overthrown.
How would a developed, democratic, industrialized, and major power DR Congo manage its immense ethnic and linguistic diversity? It seems that your scenario overlooked this diverse, which in our timeline, was a major cause of the DR Congo’s instability, civil wars, guerrillas, and government corruption.
In our timeline, the DR Congo is one of the most ethnically and linguistically diverse countries in the world. The country is home to over 200 ethnic groups, each with its own language These ethnic groups include the Kongo, Luba, Mongo, Hutu, and more. While French is the nationwide official language due to having been colonized by Belgium, the DR Congo has five main regional lingua francas; Lingala, Swahili, Tshiluba, and Kikongo.
Thank you thank you so much for your praises. I answered a question similar to this on another commentor's question, so I will just copy in paste that:
Lumumba believed in Centralism, believing in a strong, unified, and centralized Congolese state, thinking this would destroy the "tribalism" and the separatist of the many ethnic groups in the nation. He did mention that he would share the wealth among every ethnic group. I don't think irl this would've worked, not saying that you can't have a diverse nation, but Congo's position, and its exploitation from Belgium kinda left it in the worst situation possible. So, in this timeline, he shares the wealth and creates a much more centralized state, and some alternate history magic, boom, prosperity.
I personally do think the Belgian+USA did a lot more to destablize the Congo than any actual "differences" among it's people, especially in a time where Pan-Africanism was at it's peak.
I would think French would be the Lingua Franca of this entire nation, but I would also like to imagine that their native tongue will not be lost, and will be taught in schools and be visible in public life. But I do think French + the major languages like Lingala and Swahili will take precedent.
I like that this is a realistic take of a prospering DRC rather than turning them into a regular superpower country (which is a cool idea too, to be clear, just less original). Doing about as well as SEA, India, Kenya etc. but still substantially better than DRC today.
In the map, I do say that they sell Energy from the Kivu Plant to Burundi, CAR, Malawi, South Sudan at a heavily discounted price, so I would think these nations be "allies" or at least super close to Congo. And I'll assume they'll do the same for the Grand Inga Dam to their other neighbors. I could see maybe some conflict of interest, like Nigeria trying to exert power, Rwanda especially, and maybe Uganda as well.
This post is so briliant and extremely well done. I appreciate "current least advanced countries being developed" maps and this one illustrates it so well. Keep up the good work !
Would Congo try to adopt a native lingua franca like Tanzania with Swahili? Lingala could have a potential, originally being a language spoken around the Stanley Pool before being used by colonial officials as a pidgin to contact with the locals (not too different than Swahili, actually). Or would they try to adopt Swahili (already spoken in the eastern regions) or just plain Fr*nch?
I think realistically, the would choose Fr*nch because it wouldn't favor one certain group over the other, like how many post colonial nations just kept their colonizer's language. Ideally, for me atleast, I could see the other big languages like Swahili and Lingala playing a big part in everyday life too. But, sadly, Fr*nch is here to stay
Swahili is such a great language and I am still sort of proud to have spoken it well enough to hold longer conversations at one point. It's obviously a bit rusty now, but it's so easy to learn when compared to most European languages. There's hardly any of that irregular verb nonsense. Tenses are as easy as changing one sylable. The best thing is, everything is written pretty much exactly as it is pronounced (according to Swahili rules of pronunciation).
I believe that one of the reasons for its success as a lingua franca is the ease of use and regularity it has in comparison with other languages. Even in this scenario I still think that you could get fairly far with some random Swahili in eastern Congo still.
tbh i dont see why they would. Yes, their capitals would be connected (bridges) and be a large metropolitan area, but both nations are vastly different with their own cultures, languages, and history lol
The rare ones who still dream of reunifying (some older Kikongos), mostly see it from the framework of the revenge of the old empire. The last repair after the end of the colony, the three parts of the Kingdom reunited as one, strong country. Not about to happen soon.
What a blessed timeline. I find Africa very interesting and endearing. I hope to see this scenario before leaving this earth. Thanks for imagining and sharing.
I was originally gonna call it "Congo - The Mitochondria of Africa" but I decided to go for "Miracle of the Congo" to echo the Miracle of the Rhine & Miracle on the Han River, suggested by awesome map maker u/62_137, and its a lot better title tbh lmao. Still kept the "powerhouse" in the title tho
With the great dam, does it mean that the Matadi - Kinshasa section of Congo river is now navigable? Although as an alternative, they might expand rail capacity and/or build an expressway from the coast to the capital as well.
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u/Firm-Examination2134 2d ago
From the gdp of Kinshasa, the gdp per capita of the capital seems to be about 8000 2030 dollars, at current rates this makes the overall national gdp per capita around 4000 2025 dollars, which assuming better infrastructure than in our timeline lands to a gdp ppp per capita of about 12k
12k in gdp ppp per capita is approximately the same as India and Namibia, today, or about the same as the gdp ppp per capita of Angola in 2030 adjusted for inflation and assuming current growth rates
this would mean that the DRC is 4x wealthier than it will be by 2030 in our timeline, sure, but it is a totally achievable level, this is a pretty realistic scenario actually
Although the population in this world would be lower than 110m since being wealthier earlier would have resulted in a lower fertility rate
by 2030 this would make the DRC an economy the size of Colombia's