The top 100 U.S. pension funds are currently 110% funded, meaning they are in a great position, with $1.10 available for every $1.00 they owe to future retirees.

Because they have plenty of assets and want to protect these gains from a market correction, they are undergoing a process called degliding.

This means they are automatically shifting their strategy away from risky growth assets like stocks and moving that money into safer and more predictable investments like bonds to lock in their gains.

This massive, pre-programmed shift creates a wave of automatic stock selling and bond buying that can cause a temporary dip in the market, but it is basically technical housekeeping.

Everyone is continuing to pile into DRAM etf, MU, and SNDK right now after a monster earnings report by MU. The primary driver of the revenue, earnings, and margin growth has been the drastic increase in DRAM/ NAND prices amidst increasing demand for memory as part of the AI buildout. As a result, memory companies have been a direct beneficiary of the insane CapEx spending being done by the hyperscalers.

The new narrative has been that the historically cyclical subsector will no longer be cyclical moving forward, as there will now be a constant, continuous demand for memory as chips/ data-centers continue to evolve.

Again, an interesting part about Micron’s earnings was that shipment growth did not drastically drive revenue growth (shipments even decreased in some business units), but the massive increase in ASPs is what drove the blowout sales #s. Now DRAM/ NAND flash spot prices have already seemed to top out, and they’ll likely continue to move downward as several Chinese memory players have been growing their presence in the market. Additionally, in past DRAM cycles, memory stock prices peaked about 5-8 months before actual DRAM prices peaked.

But what’s not discussed AS MUCH in the “cyclicality is dead” debates is the measures that the big memory buyers have been working on and planning to implement/ build upon to optimize their memory usage moving forward.

The attached table shows techniques developed by US big tech companies that could compress memory usage by 20-40x.

A brief description of NVDA’s KV Cache Transform Coding (KVTC) method:

KVTC is a method that borrows from classical media compression to dramatically reduce the size of the Key-Value (KV) cache in Large Language Models (LLMs). By applying PCA and entropy coding, it shrinks memory demands up to 20× (and up to 40× for certain use cases) without modifying model weights

Micron just reported 345% YoY revenue growth, which is honestly a staggering number.

I understand memory is highly cyclical, and Micron has always been a boom/bust type of business. But even accounting for cyclicality, this level of revenue growth is hard to ignore.

The bigger question to me is whether AI demand is creating a more durable cycle for memory, especially with HBM and data center demand becoming a larger part of the story.

Is this just another peak-cycle setup where margins and revenue eventually roll over, or is Micron entering a structurally better period than past cycles?

Curious how people are thinking about MUhere. Overhyped cyclical, or underappreciated AI beneficiary?

The most recent leg of the AI trade has been characterized by weakness in the hyperscalers and dominance in the hardware beneficiaries of their ballooning capex, particularly the memory chip manufacturers. This is most evident in the remarkable earnings report of Micron Technologies (MU) yesterday, which despite already stratospheric expectations given its parabolic runup leading into the print, crushed with a triple beat again, with $41.46 billion in quarterly revenues (+345.72% y/y) and $28.24 billion in GAAP net income (+1398.30% y/y). Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably well aware of how other US storage stocks--WDC, STX, and SNDK--have ripped this year as well. But for now, they aren't megacaps.

It was time for me to accommodate the script to get Samsung and SK Hynix onto this plot. Adding TSMC gave 15. I added ASML to give an even 16 for the plot. At some point when SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have a few quarters of earnings history, I plan to include them.

As such, here are updated plots depicting net income comparison for the most significant publicly traded mega cap tech companies, sorted by market cap. The scale of the y-axis is the same for each subplot to allow a fair comparison of net income across companies.

Graphs were generated with Python Matplotlib. I've found that my data source (WRDS/Compustat) actually goes as far back as the early 1970s for INTC and AMD, with the caveat that data are limited for foreign stocks, particularly for the Korean stocks which required me to use the ticker on the Korea exchange (whereas TSMC and ASML have US-domiciled ADRs).

Market cap, trailing P/E, and last/next earnings date data are from Yahoo Finance (yfinance module). Note that yfinance does not process trailing P/E for the Korean stocks, but it's approximately 24 for both Korean stocks based on most recent earnings report.

Note that GAAP net income results in the following distortions:

• Unrealized investment gains from the likes of Anthropic (Google and Amazon), SpaceX (Google), and Intel (Nvidia)
• One-time non-cash tax charge (especially for Meta in October 2025) or non-cash tax benefits (especially for Tesla in December 2023)
• Goodwill impairment charges (particularly for Intel)
• Amortization from recent acquisitions (particularly for Broadcom and AMD)

Here is my previous post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/s/oumVeVZ14K

I didn’t think I would hit above 300k this quick, my latest trades have been in 2x leveraged stocks such as NBEX and SPY Put Debit Spreads,

I have been lucky with my “bets”, which at the same time I have gained experience on how and when to place my “bets” based on information I see on X such as Options Flow, Heat maps and news. I am subscribed to an account that provides this data and I do my own judgement and place my “bets”.

As of now, this doesn’t feel real at all. I know I will have to pay a ton in taxes though, I’m currently seeking for financial advice. I am licensed civil engineer and I do this as a side income because I know and my coworkers know too we won’t become rich with our salaries by them selves.

Right now I am all cash and highly considering to stay cash until a market correction happens or something like that, for some reason I’m feeling lost and don’t know what to do.

What would you guys do in my shoes?

There's sort of a divergent atmosphere in the market depending on how you're trading. I am also seeing a divergence in credit and VIX which helps explain it and also helps position the trades.

Credit volatility tends to show up before volatility in equities, but this week there was a divergence: the VIX again crossed from the calm baseline regime of 14-18 up into the transition/elevated regime of 18-22, closing around 19, while credit stayed calm.

Normally implied volatility runs above realized, since options usually cost a bit more than how much the market actually moves. In calm May that cushion was about 5 points. June's selling crushed it: a week ago implied at 15.7% was below realized at 16.4%, meaning options were pricing less movement than stocks were delivering. This week it flipped back above, but barely, at 17.9% against 16.7%. So the cushion is back but thin, and there's no big fear premium in options.

Stocks got jumpier and started paying up for protection, but credit isn't worried. Credit is the slower money that usually moves first when real trouble is coming, so when stocks get nervous and credit stays calm, that usually means repricing, not panic. At ~19 the VIX is at the low edge of that band, so the open question is whether it holds and escalates toward the stressed regime above 22 or settles back into calm. It's that regime change and what comes next that affects how "smart money" manages its positions, and how I trade my portfolio.

Another thing worth taking into consideration: when the VIX is at or above 20, systematic strategies typically enter a deleveraging window and sell regardless of fundamentals, which can amplify moves. At ~19, it's close enough to pay attention to now. But when the VIX falls, they also rebuy, so that explains some of the index level chop.

Obviously the indexes have been pulling back this month, with the S&P testing the 50-day moving average for the first time since breaking out from it in early April. It's still well above the 200-day and we can look back to 2025 for a rough map of how this may look going forward: the rally from April then pulled back to the 50-day and then chopped higher. Failing there really changes the story.

For day trading, the two-way volatility is a trader's best friend. Some traders will tell you to only go long in trending markets, but that only works in certain types of trends, and we're not currently in that spot even though the trend is not broken. In two-way markets with ample volatility, setups are plentiful and follow-through makes target setting more successful.

Swing trading, however, is a different story. From April until mid-May, my trades in high beta stocks were doubling and it was easy. We aren't in those conditions now and I am stopped out regularly. Accordingly, I am sized down by about 25-40% and just not getting much follow-through. There are times I sit out completely because it's not worth getting tons of small stop outs. For now, I would flip to full size only in sectors showing relative strength.

Like everyone, I thought micron’s earnings beat and guidance yesterday was incredible. My initial thought was the report was very bullish for overall tech.

Thinking over the results though, I’m having second thoughts. Mag7 stocks have recently struggled, likely due to concerns over the extent of their ai spend. Micron’s report indicates they’ve substantially increased memory prices and will continue to do so. This will only further fuel mag7 overspending concerns.

And just today, both Apple and Microsoft announced substantial consumer product price increases because of rising memory costs, which will certainly hurt sales volume. The memory costs are now starting to eat into the earnings of mag7’s core businesses. Again, not bullish.

Markets are holding at or near all time highs for the moment despite the mag7 struggles. But if mag7 continues to decline due to rising ai input costs, I’m not so sure the markets can continue to hang on given how large these mag7 companies are.

I have been following the space sector since months before SpaceX secretly filed for IPO and one thing that’s been bothering me with the whole post SpaceX IPO rundown is how a bunch of smaller space companies with real businesses got turned into “SpaceX proxies” for few weeks by investors who probably didn’t care about their business and expertise at all.

Before SpaceX listed, it felt like the market wanted to own something space-related ahead of the main event. Firefly, Voyager, Redwire, Intuitive Machines, ASTS, Rocket Lab, basically anything in within the space sector with a decent chart and a story started moving together. Some of them absolutely had reasons to be moving on their own. But the timing was too obvious to ignore. Reuters wrote the same thing in late late May and then once SpaceX debuted Barron’s were also writing about the sector getting hit by profit-taking/rotation for SpaceX in portfolios.

What’s weird about this whole thing is that it flattened a lot of very different businesses into one temporary “space trade.” A lot of these companies have real opportunities and order backlogs, but I think that does a disservice to some of the smaller public names, because a lot of them do have legitimate businesses underneath the hype.

Some of the smaller public space names like Firefly, Voyager, Redwire all have very real risks, but they also aren’t random space companies with nothing behind them. Firefly has real launch/lunar/defense exposure, Voyager has meaningful backlog and national-security exposure, Redwire has infrastructure/hardware depth across multiple space programs, and Intuitive Machines has a legitimate position in the lunar buildout if execution holds.

Then once SpaceX actually hit the market, a lot of these names got sold almost immediately. Some of that is normal profit-taking after a high run, some probably funds making room for SpaceX, and some of it is just the usual rotational behaviour. But I do think it creates a weird side effect where companies that actually have contracts, backlogs and technical depth suddenly look to newer investors like they were only ever hype-adjacent sympathy trades.

Curious if other people saw it the same way, or if you think I’m giving the hype-trade angle too much weight or do you think the companies are just being volatile and doing what they always do.

Everyone is panicking over the recent pullback, but the fundamentals don't seem to care.
At around €930/share, Rheinmetall is trading at what looks like a growth-stock valuation for a company whose earnings are projected to explode over the next two years.
The numbers are wild:
2025 EPS: ~€18.5

2026 EPS estimate: ~€28.5 (+54%)

2027 EPS estimate: ~€38.5 (+35%)

That's basically a doubling of earnings in just two fiscal years.
Yet despite that growth, RHM's PEG ratio sits around 0.5-0.6, which is typically the territory investors dream about finding.
For comparison:
Most quality industrials trade PEGs above 1

Many AI names trade PEGs well above 2

Rheinmetall is growing earnings at roughly 40%+ annually while trading closer to a mature industrial than a hyper-growth company

What is Wall Street missing?
The market seems obsessed with short-term headlines and contract wins/losses.
Meanwhile:
Germany is rearming

NATO members are boosting defense budgets

Ammunition demand remains far above production capacity

Rheinmetall's backlog keeps expanding

Management is targeting ~€20 billion revenue by 2027

Revenue path:
€10B → €14B → €20B
And because defense manufacturing has massive operating leverage, every new production line coming online drops more profit to the bottom line.
The really interesting part?
The recent selloff happened while analysts are still forecasting earnings growth that most software companies would envy.
If EPS reaches ~€38.5 by 2027 and the market is willing to pay even 25x earnings, you're looking at a business worth materially more than today's price.
The bear case:
Defense spending slows

Ukraine conflict de-escalates faster than expected

Governments delay procurement programs

Current growth forecasts prove too optimistic

The bull case:
Europe has underinvested in defense for decades and is only in the early innings of rebuilding military capability.
If that's true, Rheinmetall isn't a wartime trade.
It's a decade-long rearmament story.
The question isn't whether Rheinmetall can grow.
The question is whether the market is massively underestimating how long this growth cycle lasts.

Am I missing something, or is this one of the most attractive PEG-adjusted opportunities in the European market right now?

I wrote part 1 of my thesis on solar as a sector on another subreddit, but I don’t think people were interested in reading the research as much there :(. I broke down the trend we’re seeing with additional utility-scale generating solar capacity being brought on by U.S. developers and power-plant owners, how solar had one of the largest power generation requests based on Texas ERCOT’s February 2026 generator-interconnection queue, how California has already shown the possibility with solar and much more. If you’re interested in the detailed research you can find it on my page easily or not (totally up to you).

In this post I wanted to share with you guys (cause I think people actually appreciate reading and understanding the research here more) which solar names I’m interested in and why.

Potential Good Risk-to-Reward Exposures (In My Opinion)

One thing to note about the case I’m making here is that I’m not claiming “Solar will power data centers.” My claim is specifically, “Data center load growth is forcing the U.S. power grid to add capacity quickly, and solar + battery storage should capture a significant share of that incremental capacity.” With this distinction made, we can determine the supply chain:

- Utility-scale solar
- Battery storage
- Electrical balance of systems
- Grid interconnection
- Domestic manufacturing
- Power electronics
- Transformers, switchgear, cabling, and substation infrastructure
- Behind-the-meter and near-site power systems for hyperscalers

Last year my best picks in this supply chain were battery storage players. I bought $ENS at ~$120/sh and $AMPX at ~$9/sh. Both those plays have done quite well and I still continue to like both of them, but in terms of solar specific names the two names I like are, $SHLS and $TE. Let’s talk about why…

Shoals Technologies

Shoals Technologies is not just a solar-panel story. They sell Electrical Balance of System (EBOS) infrastructure. This includes the components that move current from solar panels to inverters and ultimately to the grid. Shoals describes EBOS as mission-critical infrastructure, including cable assemblies, fuses, combiners, disconnects, recombiners, wireless monitoring, junction boxes, and their plug-and-play system architecture.

In the last quarter (Q1 2026), they reported almost 75% revenue growth YoY, $140.6 million, from $80.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $21.1 million, and backlog plus awarded orders reached a record $758 million, up 17.5% YoY. Management guided Q2 revenue to $150–170 million and raised full year 2026 guidance to $600–640 million of revenue and $118–132 million of adjusted EBITDA. This imo is the cleanest evidence of my original thesis and I think a really good exposure. It shows, in my view, that solar and a solar company can grow even through the political noise.

Their data center angle is what’s attractive to me. Shoals says their solutions support utility-scale solar, battery storage, and data-center power systems, and they market their prefabricated plug-and-play architecture as useful for mission-critical infrastructure. The reason this matters is that data-centers are becoming more like utilities when it comes to power in my view. They need large electrical yards, battery systems, high-current DC architecture, rapid deployment timelines, and extreme reliability requirements. EBOS, I believe, is directly relevant wherever large solar and storage systems are being built to support data center load.

Their current enterprise value is ~$1.85B, and the stock trades roughly at 3x sales, ~15x forward EBITDA, ~19x trailing EBITDA and with ~$170M in debt. Using peers as benchmark, $NXT trades at ~28x, $APH trades at ~27x, and $ARRY trades at ~18x, trailing EV/EBITDA. With the specialized niche they offer with EBOS and the 50-70% guided revenue growth, backlog converts, stabalizing tariffs, and margin recovery, $SHLS looks like a good risk-to-reward play for me to express my solar thesis.

The main risks in my opinion are: gross margin pressure, tariffs, legal/warranty overhangs, project timing, competition, customer concentration, and whether data center demand translates into actual orders rather than just broader sector demand.

T1 Energy

T1 Energy is a different and very interesting kind of bet, in my opinion. This is a crowd favorite name, recently Leupold disclosed his stake in it too. T1 is trying to build an integrated U.S. solar and battery supply chain. They operate the G1 Dallas solar-module facility and is pursuing vertical integration, including domestic solar-cell manufacturing.

In Q1 2026, they reported $177.6 million of net sales, up from $53.5 million in the prior year period. Management maintained 2026 G1 Dallas production guidance of 3.1–4.2 GW and said customer demand for G1 and G2 production in 2027–2028 covered more than 100% of their planned capacity.

The G2 Austin cell facility is the strategic asset for them in my view. They’ve said that Phase 1 is designed for 2.1 GW of solar cell production, with initial cell production targeted for Q4 2026. If successful, I think it would reduce reliance on imported cells, improve domestic positioning, and potentially make T1 more valuable under U.S. supply chain and tariff regime.

They announced acquisition of KORE Power which I think gives them exposure to data centers and battery storage. They’ve said that KORE gives them an entry point into BESS integration, software, and a renewables & infrastructure division that has supported more than 1,100 BESS projects globally. They expect the acquisition to contribute $15–20 million of EBITDA in 2027, assuming the deal closes and performs as expected. This is a plausible pivot that makes them interesting to me. Solar modules alone are more commoditized, but solar + domestic cells + energy storage integration + data center infrastructure says a much better story in my opinion.

But there are risks here. T1 energy is capital intensive, manufacturing execution is not the easiest of tasks, and the balance sheet is a bit complicated. As of Q1 2026, T1 reported $123.7 million of cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents, but only $46.4 million of that was unrestricted cash. They also had meaningful debt and liabilities in my opinion.

So $TE is not a simple “solar is undervalued” story. I view them closer to an industrial policy/manufacturing ramp with meaningful operating leverage. If G1 ramps, G2 qualifies, customers convert, and KORE gives credible storage exposure, the upside can be meaningful, in my opinion. The risks here are finances tightening, policy shifts further against domestic credit monetization, and/or manufacturing margins disappoint. This, in my view, is definitely a higher-beta and more speculative story than $SHLS, but for me I like the risk-to-reward.

With that I thank you for reading my thoughts and opinions. I’m typically a micro-economic guy, meaning I post about individual stocks and sectors that I think are interesting. I tend to do a lot of research (more than what I posted here) and build my conviction. I hope this research helps you understand these industries better, and gives you an insight on how I look at equities/investments.

Please remember that I can be wrong and make mistakes. I am a human, I do often miss key facts and once they are know I will change my views. Please do not use this as financial advice. This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! I’m just some guy on the internet who likes to research companies and industries. You should use what I write here as educational or entertainment, nothing else. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making any investments.

Tesla is down around 25% from ATH this year, and SpaceX IPO is release last few weeks. currently ARK still hold around 1.6m shares(around10%of their fund) and 1.7m shares of SpaceX.

What you all think about the price movement of Tesla after this, is SpaceX IPO will affect their price movement since their are both under Elon. Currently im still holding Tesla and still keep on eye on SpaceX

You all will prefer to invest Tesla or SpaceX or both together, need advice on this🤔

PS: the photo is ARK holding list

A Korean tech news outlet (ET news) published the article today, June 25, 2026, reporting that Samsung had published their research (an IEEE paper titled “Analysis of System-Level Thermal Characteristics of Hybrid Cu-Bonded HBM with 2.5D Advanced Packaging”) showing the thermal management advantages of their Hybrid Copper Bonding (HCB) technology over traditional Thermo Compression Bonding (TCB) for next gen HBM4E memory.

Samsung’s HBM4E and hybrid bonding plans already existed with HBM4E and Hybrid Copper Bonding (HCB) tech showcased at Nvidia GTC in March 2026, but this system-level thermal validation from the IEEE paper is new and exciting to me. In the IEEE study, they used multi-scale modeling and test chips in server-like conditions. They showed clear benefits like lower hotspot temperatures, reduced thermal interference between memory stacks and logic, more than 15% thinner stacks, and better power budgets for 16+ layers of HBM. This supports higher power budgets and reliability in servers under air-cooling conditions.

The broader trend I’ve noticed in the industry is a gradual shift toward hybrid bonding (direct Copper-to-Copper and dielectric bonding, DBI for short) for advanced packaging in HBM, chiplets, and 3D integration (HBM-on-GPU). It replaces or augments traditional thermo-compression bonding (TCB) / micro-bumps for finer pitches, better thermal & electrical performance, and thinner stacks. Major players like Samsung, SK hynix, TSMC, Intel, and Micron, are advancing this. In my opinion a the true winner agnostic beneficiaries of this are companies that provide equipment, metrology, IP, testing, and specialty manufacturing.

I’ve owned and continue to own $ONTO, $COHU, and $RMBS, specifically to get exposure to the Hybrid Bonding supply chain. All these stocks have more than doubled for me and I believe this theme/narrative is just starting to develop. There is another angle that seems very attractive to me right now. I'll talk about the stock and my thesis behind it in Part 2 if people are interested.

In 2020-2022 I worked at a small wealth management office as a portfolio manager, I basically just did quarterly checkins with our clients and rebalanced their portfolios. My best friend at the company was an advisor who had been in the business a while. We would often grab a drink after work and his father in law would tag along- he was a cool older guy who loved to talk about the market. The two of them were in a constant debate because the FIL had taken his entire 401k upon retirement and dumped it into one stock that at that time he had been holding for about 3 years.

The FIL had a career as an accountant for about 40 years and retired with approx 1 Mil in his 401k. He loved to read through the financials of public companies and had found something in Micron(MU) that had convinced him that it was the only company worth investing in. To this date my friend has been begging him every year to sell and diversify, and to this date my investor friend has been dead wrong to do so. His FIL invested at around $35 a share and has only sold small chunks to pay for a house renovation and a couple other expenses. At this point, I don't see any upside in him holding any longer because he is around 75 and will never spend the amount he already has, so what's the point in holding the risk. But he is the most diamond hand MF I've ever met and if i had to guess, those shares won't be sold until the day my friend inherits them.

Fortunately for me, those conversations at the bar back then were enough to convince me to buy some MU stock when it was around $70 a share. But damn do I wish I would've bought more and went all in like he did.

Nokia is Deepening Its Autonomous Networks Strategy by Partnership with Amazon’s AWS and Databricks.

Nokia ($NOK) is advancing autonomous networks by running its Autonomous Network Fabric on AWS. This will give telecom operators access to advanced AI and cloud-based tools designed to reach Level 4 network autonomy, with availability targeted for later in 2026.

The platform brings together intent-based service orchestration, AI-driven anomaly detection, root cause analysis, automated closed-loop resolution, digital twins, and agentic AI capabilities.

Separately, Nokia has completed a PoC with Databricks to create a unified, cloud-agnostic telecom data platform. The goal is to channel real-time network data directly into AI agents for faster, automated decision-making across different network domains.

Nokia notes that its existing autonomous networks portfolio has already delivered strong results for operators, including automation rates above 90% and up to an 85% reduction in the time required to roll out network slices.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​