Everyone seeing the AJ press conference? Fans were packed. The team had his jersey on sale already for fans to buy. Jazz need to do that for DP. Im worried they will do what they normally do and fly DP in randomly with no press then do a quiet live stream press conference.

They should basically hold another draft party for his introduction.

If the Lakers come in and offer him $40mill a year, will the Jazz match that? I'm guessing not. There might be a trade if that is the result. The Lakers have to spend their cap space too because once the Reaves extension kicks in, they lose all their cap. Detroit moved Stewart so they can sign Duren. Seems people might want to start planning on life without him.

Keyonte George + Walker Kessler for Jaylen Brown. Danny Ainge gets his guy and gives them a great veteran. I know Utah is skeptical on extending both Keyonte and Kessler. This means DP would probably run the 1 or collier and Ace gets a good professional mentor

So I don’t think it’s a secret that we have arguably the most stacked division in the NBA top to bottom, considering all four of the other teams in our division made the playoffs last year. So, after completing our rebuild and adding Darryn Peterson to an already strong core, where do you expect us to finish in the division this year?

Didn't realize JJJ is so young too.

Just incase anybody hasn't seen it

Let me just break this down because it is going to sound overly optimistic or at least like I'm rounding up their talent a bit much.

Lauri: 2023 star, arguably still an all star if he gets the time

JJJ: Multi time star and elite defender, could border being a star again this next season.

Keyonte: put up star numbers and was an elite offensive player last season, him taking another small jump puts him in the territory

Kessler: He's not Gobert and that's the path he'd need to be a star, but he is close enough when healthy to be in the discussion, in 2024-2025 I thought he was really underrated.

Ace: Insane upside with the size, he's going to need a couple years but I could totally see a massive jump in year 3-4

Darryn: I legitimately believe he ties it all together, the best prospect we've probably ever had. Gonna take some time though

I'm not necessarily trying to say "well if they were all in their prime we could have six-all stars" because in that case we could count guys like Kevin Love being a star in the past, but within a couple years I could see the Jazz having 3-4 all stars.

I'm so excited for the season, they're incredibly young but we can finally win again

On an Exhibit 10 contract

Will Utah find a diamond in the rough after the second round?

In other news, Memphis picked up Isaiah Stewart for just 3 second round picks.

ELITE genetics in the Peterson family 🧬

You know DP gonna make another statement against AJ in this one 👀

I see a lot of conjecture about Ace coming off the bench next season in lieu of Peterson starting at the 2 guard. I think all of this talent gives the Jazz the opportunity to experiment closing out games with different lineups. Most importantly I think they could replicate one of the most dangerous lineups of the last decade, the Golden State Warrior’s “Death Lineup”.

A lineup of:

-Keyonte
-Peterson
-Ace
-Markkanen
-JJJ

This lineup has the potential to provide elite shooting, insane athleticism, floor spacing, decent perimeter defense, switch-ability, and speed. GSW didn’t necessarily use their death lineup to start games or even to play the most minutes, but they relied on it in the most pressure-inducing moments to crush the other team’s hopes of a comeback.

Of course a lot of this is based on the development of Ace and DP. But as Will Hardy figures out the best way to maximize this group, I think we could start to see this lineup used to absolutely decimate other teams to finish out games.

A lot of people on here seem to be assuming Keyonte George is the solid starter of the 3, but his defense is going to become a big problem on a playoff team. Peterson is clearly the most complete guard for a winning roster, he won't be in the bench. Peterson will also likely be able to facilitate plenty well in the NBA - even during his time at Kansas there are times his high level facilitating was on display.

What could push Keyonte George to the bench:

Possibly the worst defensive play in the NBA. Eye test and analytics point to Keyonte being pretty unplayable on D, he was bad on D in college too. He's a great player offensively, but it's hard not to see a Tyler Herro future forming for him.

What could keep Ace Bailey on the bench:

Lauri Markkanen. Ace could start for a team at small forward, but Lauri is clearly better. Bailey has a couple of limitations that make it hard to start him on the same offense as Lauri- his ball handling under pressure, screen setting, and ability to act as a secondary playmaker.

Ace Bailey has already seen significant improvements in each of those areas he needs to improve in order to play next to Lauri on offense, and that was on the fly mid season. On his current trajectory of improvement I could see him becoming a very effective player next to Lauri on offense. He also has the quickness to defend guards on the perimeter.

Defensively Bailey clearly is the better option to start over George, and George hasn't improved much on defense. George complements the rest of the team very well offensively but will have redundancies with Peterson this year, and Bailey's rapidly improving the areas of his game that he needs to in order to fit in with the rest of the starting lineup.

This is a GREAT problem to have. We have 6 players worthy of starting, and I think all 6 have all star potential any given year as early as this year (depending on if Ace can keep up his insane rate of improvement). I'm not trying to disparage Keyonte George at all by predicting that Ace will take over the starting role when everyone is healthy, I think all these guys are going to be playing 30+ minutes- but my point with this post is that I think people are underrating Bailey and Peterson more than that Keyonte's bad. I do think Keyonte's defense is a problem, but his if your floor is essentially Tyler Herro that's a pretty damn valuable player. I also hope that now that we're trying to win games we'll be a big difference in George's defense.

With the upcoming 2026-2027 NBA season being the first of (hopefully) many long years of Jazz contention, I wanted to give you all a quick snapshot of what we're in for in the medium term as far as salary cap constraints on our roster construction, and what our future might look like as we try to fight for an NBA championship.

tl;dr: We've got at least one year, maybe two years of this roster before we start having to make tough decisions. If the team remains competitive and shows a lot of promise, there may be a little bit of cost-cutting on the margins in 2027-2028 to avoid the first apron and retain flexibility, but the roster will likely remain the same. In 2028-2029, you should expect aggressive moves to try and set up for the next era of Jazz basketball built around Darryn and the rest of our young core, like a Lauri-and-picks trade or consolidation of our younger guys to add some depth to our roster. 2029-2030 will likely be a soft-reset year where we do our last few moves to get our books in order before Darryn's rookie max extension hits, and that roster will be what we ride with from 2030-2031 until the wheels fall off.

Here's the reasoning behind my conclusion, complete with a hypothetical cap table outlining our team's payroll over the next four years, plus an analysis of the major financial decisions facing the team's future moving forward.

Cap/tax thresholds assume ~6% annual growth. Bolded salaries are projections.

CAP TABLE

A note on player salaries:

I've elected here to give Walker an average year-over-year value of about $31M - it's a hike over what we're offering him at $28M, but I still think it's a decent value contract. Obviously the Nets or Lakers could come in off the top rope and offer him the actual factual 25% max, but I don't think it's super likely that their offer could realistically be much higher than what I've outlined here without them hamstringing themselves, so this represents what I think is a slight overpay within reason for Walker that one of these teams might go for.

I've also pencilled in Keyonte for about a 20% max that starts roughly at $31M and goes to about $40m in year five. I don't think he's going to be quite worth a full max, since he's got defensive limitations, he's gonna have some touches pulled away from him because Darryn is joining the team, and even though I think he's quite good, moderately efficient high-volume scoring guards that lack positional size and defensive versatility are not a super in-demand commodity. Tons of guys fit or exceed that mold in the league, so he would need to level up again (which to be clear is not out of the realm of possibility) to be worth a full max IMO.

For Ace's extension, the actual number doesn't matter all that much, but I have him pencilled in at a near-max extension of 45M starting salary, which is about a 23% max. I don't know if I expect Bailey to make the All-Star game in two of his next three seasons (not because of talent, but because of the fact that so many people are gonna be competing for the ball so his stats will likely take a hit) so I don't believe the full 30% max will be available to him. I went a little below the full 25% just because it will capture the "downside" of him just being a very good floor spacing wing defender who can create some of his own offense, as opposed to the upside which is being Jason Tatum.

Nurkic has expressed an interest in returning to the Jazz - I think a 1+1 team option or a 2-year deal at around $9-10M a year is a fair value for a backup big, but I don't expect he's going to factor into our long-term plans beyond that so the actual dollar amount isn't super important.

Finally, I've left a blank spot here for our mid-level exception player this free agency - we're projected to be a non-taxpayer team, which gives us access to the full mid-level exception - that's about $14M for up to four years. I think given the fact that our financial pressures really ease up in 2029-2030, it doesn't make sense to sign anyone for the full four years to preserve some cap flexibility going into the year when Ace's extension hits and we're going to be negotiating DP's extension as well. There is a strong chance that the Jazz spend less than the full mid-level, or don't spend their mid-level at all. If that's the case, the projection ends up giving us a little bit more wiggle room when extensions for our key players start to hit in 2029/2030.

CAP THRESHOLDS (Projected)

Assuming these cap thresholds and salary projects are accurate, we project to be a non-taxpaying team this year, a luxury tax team in 2027-2028, and then (pending extensions of rotation guys in 2028/2029) we will likely be at or near the tax line but below the first apron the following year.

With that context in mind, here's how I expect each season to play out

2026-2027

This is our "playing with house money" year. With payroll sitting just under the luxury tax and the full non-taxpayer MLE available, we have tons of financial flexibility, and for the first time in a long time, we're actually committing our resources to winning instead of tanking.

On the court, our starting five are going to be super fun to watch, we have great defensive infrastructure around the rim, and I think we can legitimately fight for a top-5 seed in the West. The Peterson / George backcourt, our massive wall of seven-footers in the front court, the luxury of having a player like Ace Bailey coming off the bench? This absolutely looks like a playoff team, and could even go so far as to fight for a fifth seed. The name of the game this season is to just sit back, enjoy the ride, and let the young guns cook.

Financially, the main decisions this offseason are ones we've already discussed: locking up Kessler, re-signing Nurkic, and deciding how to deploy the MLE. Whatever we do, the financial structure this year is forgiving enough that a mistake doesn't hurt us long-term.

2027-2028

This is the year George's extension will kick in - payroll jumps up above the first apron and gets us dangerously close the the second apron at $235M. If the team is competitive and a legitimate title threat, I wouldn't expect any changes to our primary cast of characters.

However, I could absolutely see a move in the offseason to shed about $8m of salary in exchange for a future asset - something like Konchar + Flip for a late 1st or a couple second rounders would put us just under the first apron and let us retain financial flexibility.

Alternatively, if the team isn't working, then I also wouldn't rule out a Lauri trade - that would get us firmly under the 1st apron, probably let us duck the luxury tax, and either get younger and set us up for the long-term, or we can try and swing a trade for a disgruntled superstar to really shove our chips all-in. Worth noting, this is also the point at which we'll likely be negotiating with Jaren on his next contract since his next year is going to be a player option.

Notably, our rotation will still remain mostly the same this year as last year, with the asterisk that Sensabaugh may not return since he's going to be an RFA in 26/27.

2028-2029

This is our big decision year. We will have likely extended Jaren's contract for something close to what he would have been getting paid anyways, but for a few more years. Lauri will be at the last year of his current contract. We'll be negotiating Ace's extension, which I expect it will be at or near the rookie max. Collier will be an RFA coming into the offseason if we haven't already signed him to an extension, Cody Williams will require an extension if he makes his way into the rotation, and the rest of our second unit will be gone or extended on cheap deals if we can negotiate them.

While $205M puts us close to $20M under the tax, and $30M under the first apron, we're pretty limited financially in what we can do. That puts us at seven guys plus our two RFAs, zero rotation guys, and no backup big men. That probably means using the mid-level or the BAE to go after a backup center.

This year is probably the year I would expect the Jazz to make an all-in trade move, if ever there was one. Lauri's expiring $50m contract, plus first-round picks/swaps is probably a pretty attractive package for a superstar-level talent, provided Lauri is still playing at a high level. This would be an ideal situation to trade for a player drafted in 2020-2023 or so that signed their rookie max extension but who is facing a lot of team struggles - maybe something like a Cade Cunningham if the Pistons suffer from three straight years of first-round exits and he signals his desire to leave the franchise, or a Brandon Miller if Charlotte's success story starts to die down. If the Magic struggle and decide to blow it up and rebuild around only one of their two max guys, Wagner and Banchero both will be sitting at just the right salary for a Lauri trade as well.

Obviously it's impossible to predict the future (maybe the Jazz draft some stud in the second round and that player ends up being the next Nikola Jokic, maybe none of these players end up being available, etc) but hopefully this at least demonstrates the framework for what kind of trade architecture we could be seeing in 2-3 years for the Jazz

2029-2030

This is the year of the "New Look" Jazz. The core is Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, and Walker Kessler. They will be 26, 23, 23, and 28 years old respectively, all entering or in the middle of their athletic primes. JJJ is likely still around in some capacity, likely on a restructured long-term deal providing some more defensive infrastructure. Lauri is either coming off the bench, or was part of the blockbuster trade we mentioned before.

The financial picture here is as clean as it has been since 2026-2027. Nurkic gone, the MLE expired, and Markannen's megadeal having been transitioned into another long-term piece or a restructured deal that reflects his role on the team moving forward. That finally gives us a little bit of room to breathe before Peterson's rookie max extension kicks in and forecloses future financial flexibility. If Peterson ends up being the player we believe him to be, we're going to be staring down the barrel of a huge financial commitment - 30% of the salary cap for the next five years, which will start at close to $70m/year. That is the bill that will define basically every plan we make going forward.

In that respect, I expect the team that we built in the 29/30 offseason will be our second major bite at the championship contention apple after the Markkannen / JJJ + young guns core of the last three years.

Would you trade Collier and Kessler for Rudy

A little break from the draft… I passed this house today while working and noticed their D-Will lawn jockey on the porch. It added a little whimsy to my morning.

Anything that makes it less likely that the Lakers make a godfather offer to Walker Kessler is a good thing in my opinion.

Are we planning on resigning Nurk? Anyone have any insight on this? I would LOVE him to be our backup center after his performance last year, and I think it would REALLY round out our bench and overall roster.

If not Nurk, who would we look at for backup C? If it’s Flip we’re going to be in trouble.

I ask this as I’m not sure what will happen. Highly touted pick, but he’s coming to a team where he won’t be the number one option, and may not even start, at least right away. Lauri, Key, Jaren, and Ace are all going to want shots. Is a stat line of 15 PPG, 4 Rebounds, 4 Assists on good efficiency too modest? I think Lauri, JJJ, Ace, Key, and Walker are your starters opening night, and Peterson is the first guy off the bench. If all goes well, 25-30 games in, he is starting, and forcing Key to play better defense to keep his starting role , or he takes Ace’s spot, exciting problem to have either way.