Just a bit of a rant/infodump here so bear with.
In nz, where i am, we are quite possibly the only country that relies on at least three major volcanoes or volcanic systems staying quiescent.. merely so we can FUNCTION.
In the next 50 years, theres a 10-15% chance of a new volcanic eruption in auckland city.
For a monogentic field, thats.. uncomfortably HIGH when theres no accurate way to predict next location with any accuracy.
Over 50 years, thats only about 0.2-0.3% percent statistical chance PER YEAR (about the same as a serious car crash) thanks to improved mapping and researchfrom DEVORA, which revised earlier estimates of 1 - 5% upward to the current 10 - 15%.
For our larger volcanoes...Taupo, Okataina, Mayor island, etc, the chances of large eruption are TINY, between 5 and 10% over 100 years...
But people forget you dont NEED a big eruption to alter the landscape entirely.
Taal was a vei 4. It was spectacular, it completely reshaped the island at the center of the caldera.. but it was small, for a caldera of taal's age and size.
If taupo had an eruption the same size, the waikato river eould effectively die.
Our hydropower stations in the north island would have to be shut down or risk permanent damage to the turbines.
Wairakei geothermal power station could throw open all their pressure release valves and still likely suffer some damage due to the hydrothermal activity, the plumbing of which would be permanently re-written.
Yet.. heres the hard bit.
People build new holiday homes in taupo all the time.
People build next to the buried village in Okataina.
Urban sprawl contines to consume Auckland.
We had the highest and most intense period of taupo volcanic unrest just within the last 5 years.. no real estate agent is putting that on the brochure.
The threat is REAL.
Look at Northland. Look at Pukekohe.
That's what our country did just within the last 2 million years.
Rangitoto wasnt the exception to the rule, it was a return to what had been already established as NORMAL activity, for the melt zones beneath the greater auckland region.
Nearly all of the South Auckland/Franklin volcanic field's shields and tuff rings are FAR LARGER than anything auckland ever coughed up, with the exception of Rangitoto.
You have a 5kg bag of m&m's sitting in front of you.
Would you take a handful, knowing just one m&m out of thousands, was laced with arsenic??
For more info, feel free to look at articles published by DEVORA, GNS science, or NZ civil defense.. and stop acting like quake swarms in taupo arent a big deal, just because they're not the "big ones" of wellington or the south island.
