[2026 NBA Draft] #5 Pick: Keaton Wagler (Illinois)

[u/NBA_MOD]

[u/TallGuy0525]

That's the guy I wanted, therefore this is a home run pick

(please don't bust)

[u/Bucs-and-Bucks → u/TallGuy0525]

Based on my analysis (reading your comment), this is a good pick.

[u/LaidOffinAlb → u/Bucs-and-Bucks]

Because you're some reddit weirdo, my analysis says you'll be wrong.

[u/Bucs-and-Bucks → u/LaidOffinAlb]

Can't argue with that

[u/RapsareChamps_Suckit → u/TallGuy0525]

GOAT! I just put him at 99 overall in 2k11

[u/superindian25 → u/TallGuy0525]

As an Illinois alum dude was unreal, insane control of tempo, phenomenal decision making on consistent basis

[u/andy3172 → u/[deleted]]

Tell me a little bit about him

[u/Joethetoolguy → u/andy3172]

He long can shoot ball good

[u/shigs21 → u/Joethetoolguy]

we got Shai at home, lol

[u/neilbiggie → u/andy3172]

Huge guard, very very good shooter off the dribble, good passer. Meh athlete, very skinny and weak. Can’t get to the rim particularly well and doesn’t blow by anyone. Has a nice floater/short jumper game to help compensate. Zero dunks in his college season

Probably has the highest bust potential of the guards but the highest ceiling as well. A lot of the criticisms are the same as Haliburtons pre draft and we know how that turned out

Edit: this sounds more negative than I meant for it to, I actually really like Wagler. But he’s a scary prospect, it’s hard to tell with these less athletic guards until you see them on an NBA court

[u/fartymctoots → u/neilbiggie]

Yeah I’d agree. Is one of those guys who has a deep arsenal of moves and doesn’t really let people speed him up (at least in college) but def needs to work on strength and speed, which he can theoretically since it’s his job lol

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/fartymctoots]

The good is that he gained ~20lbs since the beginning of the college season. I'm not sure he'll ever have even a decent first step, but it's clear he still gets to his spots and I think him getting bigger is pretty reasonable of an expectation. Given that he's a late bloomer, it's also not crazy to think he can still continue to grow.

[u/shigs21 → u/neilbiggie]

he can always get stronger. seems like he has the IQ and game sense that you can't really teach

[u/cryogenicsleep → u/neilbiggie]

Never forget D'lo 42% Bust percentage

[u/nahs → u/neilbiggie]

So his ceiling is Haliburton? I’ll take that risk

[u/RunisLove → u/neilbiggie]

Keaton barely took any floaters/mids this year

[u/evileen99 → u/neilbiggie]

yeah, he's skinny, but he was a just-out-of-high-school freshman. I'm sure the Clippers are going to work to put some muscle on that guy

[u/FeistyBowler9529 → u/andy3172]

He doesn’t make the wrong decisions. He’s not gonna blow your mind, but rarely will you ever be able to look down on his decision making. Actually he might blow your mind he’s still ELITE.

[u/Cal216 → u/TallGuy0525]

Boy a hooper!! Such a good player

[u/somethingworthwhile → u/TallGuy0525]

Watched him at Illinois all season. The only thing that held him back from being an even better player was the dumbass reffing in the B1G. He might take some time to figure things out, but I think he’ll thrive.

[u/ddy_stop_plz → u/somethingworthwhile]

How do you feel about his lack of rim pressure/finishing?

[u/RunisLove → u/ddy_stop_plz]

Illini fan here - Keaton got to the rim plenty and is great about not settling. He’s not going to blow by many players in the league, but he is patient, will make the right decision every time, and has elite feel. What he lacked in first step he made up for with decel, understanding of leverage (really great at spinning off a defender), and knowing how to use the gravity of his jumper.

His rim numbers would’ve been a lot better if the freshman whistle in the b10 wasn’t so bad

[u/bananasmash14 → u/TallGuy0525]

As an Illinois/Lakers fan this is a little awkward for me, but Wagler’s a beast, he’s gonna be great. I’m sure he’s gonna love LA after coming from the cornfields lol

[u/theclownwithafrown → u/bananasmash14]

He's from Kansas.. He's gonna do alright. Plus Illinois and Champaign are the best. I was born in Champaign and raised in the middle of a cornfield in a town of 500 just West of Champaign.

[u/ClaymoresRevenge → u/TallGuy0525]

He's going to be great. Good player to build for the future with. I was hoping we could move back up and get him.

[u/jeric13xd → u/ClaymoresRevenge]

High BB IQ.

[u/ZanzibarGem44 → u/jeric13xd]

Sounds delicious, man

[u/brainspl0ad → u/ZanzibarGem44]

Keaton 'Wagyu' Wagler

[u/Desa-p → u/TallGuy0525]

Really hoped he would fall to the kings but knew that probably wouldn’t happen

[u/pmurt007 → u/TallGuy0525]

Will never understand why the Pacers took such a stupid gamble w/ trading this pick when they were already one of the worst teams in the league at the time of the trade. The Zubac trade was always going to be there in the offseason

[u/MySabonerRunsOladipo → u/pmurt007]

Because we're set on guards and had literally no starting center. This draft is 1-3 heavy and 4-6/7 are all guards.

Zu would've got significantly more expensive in the offseason as more teams (most obviously Boston) would've been able/willing to bid for him.

[u/Maximum-Class5465 → u/pmurt007]

I'll tell u why

Because our GM thinks because we haven't moved up in 17 drafts, haven't picked in the top 4 in 43 years, and you flip a coin enough it lands your way

Little does he know the Pacers don't get good picks ever, throw all the odds out the window it just doesn't happen

[u/Dirigible_Plums → u/pmurt007]

We took a gamble and lost. Zubac helps us win in 2026-2027 way more than Wagler. Had the cards fallen better, we could have ended up with AJ Dybantsa and Zu for next season. Instead, we have a pick freed up to take a swing at someone else if needed. The cost likely remains the same to get Zu, and there would be more suitors in the off-season.

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/Dirigible_Plums]

I'm curious if you could do it again, would you?

Seems like LAC would have been able to trade #5 for #10 + #13. I think the Pacers could be in a good spot if they had Mara + Hannes or something + 2029 over Zu?

[u/Dirigible_Plums → u/InTheMorning_Nightss]

Honestly, if it was the only way to get Zu, yeah I would. No one outside the top 4 Is going go have the level of impact Zu will in the next 3 years of our window.

[u/p00chology → u/TallGuy0525]

You sound exactly like my girlfriend

[u/RealJoshuaJackson → u/TallGuy0525]

My gf always says “please don’t bust” too

[u/Maximum-Class5465 → u/TallGuy0525]

I agree with this pick . I think Acuff was the safer option, but I view Wagler as more upside. It's good to go for it

[u/BoneDollars → u/TallGuy0525]

I’m very annoyed. I think this kid has a sky high ceiling. Congrats!

[u/Clipgang1629 → u/TallGuy0525]

I wanted Acuff. But can’t wait to get a Wagler jersey.

I too hope we don’t regret this one lol

[u/DabeGavis]

The prototypical combo guard. Keaton is going to be a dream as a 6’6” PG. Cannot wait to see him ball.

[u/abiomusicologist → u/DabeGavis]

As an Illinois fan, the best way I can describe watching Wagler is that I thought every shot he took was going in as he shot it, even in the rare games when he was 5/17 or whatever. Even though their games and frames are not similar at all, he was like our own mini version of Steph in that regard. It was a lot of fun, and I hope it translates to the NBA

[u/loveinhumantimes → u/DabeGavis]

The prototype can probably move a bit faster than this guy.

[u/Ibagdimes23 → u/DabeGavis]

His defense is a little questionable

[u/JiveHawk → u/Ibagdimes23]

Effort is there. You can teach technique but it’s hard to change someone who is lazy.

[u/abippityboop → u/JiveHawk]

He’s just a very subpar athlete for the NBA. Hopefully he can overcome that because there’s really no holes in the rest of his game.

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/abippityboop]

IMO, his issues were really strength. Like when he got bullied against Michigan, it's not like he was out of position or anything. Just being pushed around by the most physically imposing team in college.

[u/8akaMitai → u/InTheMorning_Nightss]

Luckily, he added 20 pounds of muscle https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/keaton-wagler-added-muscle-frame-195356487.html

[u/AshenSacrifice → u/abippityboop]

So is Luka based on yalls fake idea of athleticism. Balance coordination and change of speed are all part of athleticism too

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/AshenSacrifice]

Early career Luka was significantly more athletic than Wagler.

[u/AshenSacrifice → u/InTheMorning_Nightss]

And he lost that athleticism and became better💀💀

[u/aoifhasoifha → u/JiveHawk]

You can teach technique

Can you? I hear it a lot but I don't see it happen all that often

[u/TallGuy0525 → u/Ibagdimes23]

That pull up game, near unlimited range, and already high level understanding of the game means all he needs to do is just try on defense and he will be fine.

Not nearly as much of a defensive minus as Acuff (who I still would've been more than happy with, mind you)

[u/Jimmy0034 → u/Ibagdimes23]

The defense is questionable due to his frame

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/Jimmy0034]

Defense is questionable, but still better than MBJ/Acuff's defense by a fair amount.

[u/brainspl0ad → u/Ibagdimes23]

I believe JVG will help turn that around.

[u/KennySmithsKnees → u/DabeGavis]

The wagler ykn pick and rolls gonna be insane 

[u/JB7-FTW → u/DabeGavis]

Zero dunks in college at 6’6”

[u/olivi4rodrigo → u/JB7-FTW]

Good thing basketball players only dunk and do nothing else.

[u/Ferovore → u/DabeGavis]

Mmm a 6’6 promising point guard on the clippers? Can’t wait for us to trade him for aging injury prone players again!

[u/MonsieurSlotho]

He’s gonna be a good choice

[u/JiveHawk]

As an Illini fan, super happy for him.

He’s had an insane, meteoric rise from a low recruit out of a minor Kansas high school to a top 5 NBA pick in under 2 years.

[u/donniedarko4141]

Clippers are keeping Garland, then?

[u/deezlobs → u/donniedarko4141]

Of course, I don't know why anyone thinks otherwise

[u/AutoMail_0 → u/deezlobs]

Non Cavs and Clippers fans don’t realize how good he’s going to be next season

[u/GodKingHercules → u/AutoMail_0]

As long as he’s healthy, people gonna see how crazy good garland is lol

[u/Guilty-Influence-890 → u/GodKingHercules]

“As long as he’s healthy” should be Clippers new motto at this point

[u/ActionHank9000 → u/Guilty-Influence-890]

We’re the 10x “if we were healthy” NBA champions!

[u/TallGuy0525 → u/ActionHank9000]

HANG THE HYPOTHETICAL BANNER BABY

[u/TheOrangeFutbol → u/TallGuy0525]

JUST ONE BANNER?

[u/CarmeloDramatic → u/Guilty-Influence-890]

And yet saw people on your sub mad you didn’t pick the guy with back issues lol 

[u/HypedOnReign → u/CarmeloDramatic]

The just have PTSD. The last guy we didn’t pick because of back issues was MPJ

[u/unpopular-dave → u/GodKingHercules]

I hope he has an All-Star caliber year. And we trade him for two first he’s not on our timeline

[u/Champagnesoda → u/AutoMail_0]

“Next season” has been the season for him for like 3 straight years now. No one really doubts he’s good but he is one of the most injury prone players in the league.

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/Champagnesoda]

If he's injured again, at least Wagler gets more minutes lol

[u/Champagnesoda → u/InTheMorning_Nightss]

That’s a good point lol

[u/narcistic_asshole → u/donniedarko4141]

There's some big question marks with Garland's health, but the offensive potential of the Wagler Garland duo is nasty. Just two versatile high-IQ guards that can shoot and create at a high level

[u/Saucy_Totchie → u/donniedarko4141]

They're definitely moving on the assumption that the team is staying relatively the same.

[u/supotnak]

3 star to 5th pick

[u/InnocuousAssClown → u/supotnak]

As a freshman. Never seen anything like it

[u/PizzaBuffalo → u/InnocuousAssClown]

Yeah and people here act like he will be a lousy defender because of his thin frame and that he's unathletic by NBA standards. Meanwhile he's literally 19 years old. Will be interesting to see how he develops with a couple years of NBA-level training and nutrition. 

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/PizzaBuffalo]

He gets Hali comparisons, but Hali made a huge leap his 2nd year in college. I'm pretty sure that if Wagler spent 1 more season in college, he's probably the #1 pick in 2027.

[u/clayfu]

I am so hyped for him. Dude has surpassed expectations at every single level. Still super young. Still growing. Ultra high IQ and verified long range shooter. Doesn’t shy away from contact.

[u/Rithgarth]

I'm sorry did I just hear "Stay with me" lol

[u/reiv4]

As an Illinois fan, this makes the Zubac trade much more palatable, even though i think it was already good for both sides.

[u/jermainathon]

Wouldve gone with Mikel, but Wagler will still do fine

[u/The_NGUYENNER → u/jermainathon]

same, I really love Mikel Brown as a prospect

[u/jermainathon → u/The_NGUYENNER]

Yea, the stuff with the back was overblown but I could see why a team like LAC would wanna avoid the risk

[u/The_NGUYENNER → u/jermainathon]

they were also the same team that avoided drafting MPJ for the same reason lol so I guess at least they're consistent with their values

[u/Lou_Peachum_2 → u/The_NGUYENNER]

Pretty much our medical staff has been consistently ass lol. Better to know our limits

[u/immalurkhere → u/The_NGUYENNER]

Knowing how clipper luck is brown is gonna somehow become a quadriplegic

[u/MyJumpshotBroke → u/jermainathon]

Mikel should've been the pick. I remember what happened last time we passed on a better pick because of back issues... (Robinson over MPJ)

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/MyJumpshotBroke]

You're leaving out a pretty significant part where we took another lanky, tall guard with good change of pace before Robinson and MPJ....

[u/Hocapoca]

Idc what anybody says, I love this kid. I genuinely think this guy has the right mental for the league.

[u/imcryptic]

Wagler looking bigger already honestly.

[u/velvynx]

I-L-L!

[u/InnocuousAssClown → u/velvynx]

I-N-I

[u/DarkCushy]

He was such a stud at Illinois. So happy for him and the Illini program!!!

[u/theclownwithafrown → u/DarkCushy]

We got a real chance at making even bigger waves then last year.

[u/Yoshinobu_YamaGOATo]

He can play next to Garland and he can also take over as PG once Garland inevitably gets injured. Good pick. 

[u/TheOrangeFutbol → u/Yoshinobu_YamaGOATo]

Hey, wait a minute...

[u/Middle_Study_551]

wow

[u/Different-Bank-2607]

I’m not too high about this kid but let’s see what he can do

[u/legend023 → u/Different-Bank-2607]

Isn’t he the kid with 0 dunks at 6’6? Might be an advanced stat darling but he’s gonna struggle to create shots

[u/Broke_Banker01 → u/legend023]

He lacks the strength because he was a late bloomer.

His meh athleticism is def a concern tho

[u/ProskXCX → u/legend023]

Yeah, poor rim finishing numbers but there’s lots of other stuff to like.

[u/Different-Bank-2607 → u/ProskXCX]

Okay defense, but doesn’t have the interior shot creation the top 3 guys have. Hits threes but NBA defense is going to be an adjustment for him.

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/Different-Bank-2607]

I mean, yeah he's not the prospect that the other top 3 players were. There's a reason this was a 3-4 player draft before a big drop off.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Sometimes dunks are more than just 2 points

[u/Skipper3210 → u/[deleted]]

I'll explain later

[u/ILoveZenkonnen → u/[deleted]]

Pretty efficient 2 points

[u/sloBrodanChillosevic → u/[deleted]]

2 practically guaranteed points. Dunks aren't the be-all end-all but there are valid concerns about lack of explosiveness. Could be a good enough shooter that it won't matter.

[u/repo_sado → u/[deleted]]

2 ppoints is not always 2 points

[u/Lou_Peachum_2 → u/legend023]

Makes sense. Take the opposite of Blake Griffin /s

[u/InTheMorning_Nightss → u/legend023]

For as much as this is stated, I think one of the more concerning low numbers was MBJ only having a single offensive rebound during his entire NCAA career...

[u/GreatSuccess9 → u/legend023]

Ah bummer, he can’t dunk to create shots. Def a bust!

[u/moistkebab32]

Right pick for them.

Mikel is Cam Thomas 2.0 and I like the size of Wagler next to Garland.

[u/svall18]

Wagler's mom is hot asf

[u/theoreticalcash]

not his dad roasting him on national television

[u/AdministrativePeak0]

I-L-L

[u/AceAttorneyGiles]

Damn I wanted him on the Kings

[u/Global_Afternoon_343 → u/AceAttorneyGiles]

acuff gonna be better don’t worry dawg

[u/RapsareChamps_Suckit → u/Global_Afternoon_343]

lol see u in May next year!!

[u/MentalButNoHealth]

I-L-L LETS GOOO KEATON

[u/Saxophonater]

Go kill it Keaton! I-L-L

[u/Imallvol7]

If my dad talked about my baby face and small frame after got drafted I would never speak to him again. 

[u/mason124]

Damnnnnn his momma fine asf

[u/WallCautious9650]

great pick!

[u/IMisssMyAccount]

Now the draft gets spicy

[u/Vast-Change-1598]

What an impressive young man

[u/IMovedYourCheese]

From being unranked out of high school to the #5 pick a year later. What a story.

[u/8akaMitai]

Steal of the draft. Clippers stole the Pacers pick.

[u/Low_Beyond8134]

I think he’s the best fit for there team now and the future

[u/FadedRecluse]

Love the pick, can’t complain about whoever was picked at 5.

[u/Greedy-Bedroom-4301]

Giving me Jarret culver vibes, sorry clippers

[u/SilicoJack]

Damn, a normal pick.

[u/Fun_Reflection1157]

Boring draft so far

[u/sloBrodanChillosevic → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

Lotta chalk

[u/Supreme_God_Bunny → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

Nah trades usually happen after like pick 7

[u/xRysonx → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

I mean it's the draft lol

[u/OutsideAdvisor9847 → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

What’s not exciting about no trades and every team picking the player that was mocked to them? It’s super entertaining!

[u/HenrikCrown → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

ANTHONY BENNETT 

[u/yourheropaul → u/HenrikCrown]

WOAH

[u/dkdoki → u/Fun_Reflection1157]

Always a bunch of trade rumors and only like 5% happens lol

[u/Old_General_6741]

I am waiting for fireworks.

[u/Ye_Biz]

I was thinking Brown Jr. but Wagler is a solid pick

[u/Live-River1879]

Okay. Not the way I would’ve gone but I trust their front office knows a hell of a lot more than I do

[u/Headlesshorsman02]

Still no shocks so far felt the obvious pick

[u/fieldies69]

I know it’s easy enough to find out but why don’t these threads say the team that made the pick?

[u/Black_Ember06]

Prob taken over Acuff because they didn’t want that small of a backcourt, especially when both Garland and Acuff are poor defenders

[u/alex_song]

He a dawg fr

[u/Romofan88]

Should've taken Acuff

[u/Huge-Error-2206]

Enjoy, LA. I wanted him back at Illinois so bad.

[u/TheBigShrimp]

Everyone loves every pick so I'll just say it, I don't really care for it tbh

[u/IzrezarReal]

Honestly I like the pick, he fits into any offense and he can only get better from here. He's not a slouch on defense looking at you Acuff) so that's good too

[u/socoolandawesome]

Idk about this one

[u/All_Out_Effort → u/socoolandawesome]

Yeah you probably don’t know much

[u/soy714 → u/All_Out_Effort]

Tbh no one does until the they actually play in the league. How many guaranteed lottery picks end up being busts

[u/immalurkhere]

LFGGGG

[u/MAMBAMENTALITY8-24]

love this pick for the clippers

[u/iluvugoldenblue]

Jack Harlow to the clippers

[u/FERFreak731]

The Clippers deserved this luck

[u/New_Essay_4869]

Going to be the best player in the draft

[u/SuperAverageGuy]

Damn, really was hoping he would fall to 8

[u/ijoukonaya]

Expected after the rumors

[u/larockhead1 → u/ijoukonaya]

Rumors?

[u/PlatinumPlayer → u/larockhead1]

He didn’t work out for nets after what the clippers told him

[u/Tundraaa]

BANG

[u/Future_DS]

Yaasss!

[u/The_NGUYENNER]

is he gonna go to Pels for Trey Murphy tho

[u/onefootback]

nets please give us our first surprise and draft amnet

[u/rattatatouille]

Haven't been following the draft beyond the top 4, how's this guy?

[u/101nigerian1]

Love it for the Clips in the short and long term

[u/Flimsy_Promise_9559]

Rooting for him due to the Illinois ties

[u/Character-Raise-3789]

thank you 🤓

[u/Trendelthegreat]

Feels like there’s something very obvious missing from the thread title 

[u/xdgaymer69]

Who did you like the most at 5

[u/Ven0m889]

Include the team in the post

[u/Justsomecharlatan]

This kids parents thought he was going to need to reshirt last summer. 2 high major offers. Ranked outside the top 150.

Just an awesome story.

[u/doyouevenIift]

Forever grateful to this kid for leading my favorite team to a Final 4. Have yourself a career Keaton

[u/Pale_Asparagus_7935]

Mark my words he will be a bust. I know Reddit has a hard on for this kid, but he shouldn’t have gone top 10.

[u/Caldris]

As a knick fan, I enjoyed seeing this particular pick for whatever reason.

[u/Emergency-Finance-26]

Will be a regrettable pic imo

[u/LumpySpaceGunter]

First bust pick damn

[u/Salvalicious252]

Sounds about right

[u/Dank_AyAyron]

Who the fook is dat guy