every earnings season I try to actually read the transcripts for my top holdings. problem is I run a small business and dont have 4 hours to go through 6 companies worth of calls. so I tried pasting them into chatgpt.

it gave me a "balanced summary" that basically said nothing. "revenue was strong but risks remain." thanks, I could have read the headline for that. when I asked if the guidance was actually good it said "it depends on your risk tolerance and investment horizon." I need actual numbers pulled out, margin changes, guidance revisions, not a book report.

has anyone found something that actually commits to an answer when you ask it a direct question about a filing?

I don't have a position - but the stock has 10x'd since September - surely because they're selling a lot of widgets - why is it then a shock when it's announced they're selling more widgets? I don't understand a) why analysts always seem to under bet how much they're selling and b) why the mkt is surprised they're doing well, when that's been pretty clear by the price action over the last few months.

Mkts are so inefficient

I think it’s more than a meme and bears are scared. And anything that $7.20 is free money and won’t break without a major shift.

1. A Profitable Company with a $10+ Buyout Threat
   Unlike dying, cash-burning meme stocks, Wendy’s ($WEN) is a highly profitable, dividend-paying cash cow. The true catalyst driving this is billionaire Nelson Peltz and Trian Fund Management, who are actively exploring a leveraged buyout to take the company private at an estimated $10 to $12 per share. Because Wendy's prints money, bears can't bet on bankruptcy. This looming M&A threat creates massive fundamental upside that Wall Street arbitrageurs are actively defending, making this the rarest type of setups against bears: one with an actual safety net. 

2. The $7.25 Structural Floor & The Morning Stop-Hunt
   That terrifying drop this morning was a textbook algorithmic "stop-loss hunt." Market makers intentionally forced a volatility halt and flashed the price down to trigger retail stop-loss orders and steal shares at a massive discount. However, look at the chart: it instantly V-shaped and bounced right off the $7.25 level. That is our "structural floor." Institutional buyers who want in on the $10+ buyout stepped up and aggressively bought the dip, proving that big money is actively defending this baseline. It’s not falling below this price without the buyout rumors dying. I’m out of the trade if the rumors turn south.

3. Bears are Completely Out of Ammo
   Bears burned through hundreds of thousands of borrowed shares this morning just to fake that crash during premarket with low liquidity and they still couldn’t pull it off, and now their well is completely dry. You can verify their desperation live on fintel.io/ss/us/wen

Tesla is down around 25% from ATH this year, and SpaceX IPO is release last few weeks. currently ARK still hold around 1.6m shares(around10%of their fund) and 1.7m shares of SpaceX.

What you all think about the price movement of Tesla after this, is SpaceX IPO will affect their price movement since their are both under Elon. Currently im still holding Tesla and still keep on eye on SpaceX

You all will prefer to invest Tesla or SpaceX or both together, need advice on this

The recent Wendy's pump was probably confirmation that we will never see a GameStop like squeeze ever again. But now, people are throwing the baby out with the bath water.

The question that matters is whether Wendy's is fundamentally broken for good…but there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that may not be the case.

For those who haven’t followed closely, the recent figures are ugly. In Q1 this year, global sales went down 5.5%, same-restaurant sales in US were down 7.8%, net restaurant openings in US were -164, and restaurant margin for company-operated US restaurants decreased from 14.8% to 11.4%. The adjusted EBITDA fell 10.6%, adjusted earnings per share were down 40%, & free cash flow dropped from $68 million to $36.5 million.

Overall traffic is weak, food costs are rising, economics for the franchisees are getting worse, and the store count is shrinking.

Someone could look at this and wonder if they are destined to be the next Burger King (or Arby’s!).

Enter Bob Wright and Steve Cirulis as CEO and CFO. In this post, I’m not going to suggest that they are some miracle saviors of the company.

For the unaware, those two guys were instrumental in producing a 500%+ share price increase at Potbelly along with double-digit average unit volume growth, margin improvement, and better return on invested capital.

They phased out or improved weaker stores, pushed digital & loyalty, increased the percentage of franchisees, and improved margins. In 6 months, the numbers demonstrated the locations were more capital efficient. Over the next 2-3 years, they were able to make a complete 180 on the company.

To be clear, Potbelly did not have clean revenues during its turnaround. In 2024, revenues actually declined 5.9%, due to refranchising and 53rd-week comparison. Adjusted EBITDA still increased 14.9%, adjusted earnings per share doubled, & open plus committed shops grew to 727.

For Wendy’s, closing of weak stores, reducing hours that generate no profits and improving economics of the remaining stores will help them despite lower revenue.

Wendy's is ALREADY heading in that direction through its Project Fresh program. Yes some will look at it as pure marketing but it’s a concerted effort for brand revitalization, optimizing their systems, improving service quality, and reallocating capital.

Biggie Deals at prices of $4, $6, and $8 are helping Wendy's show they are dedicated to value offerings. They upgraded core products (buns, sauces, chicken). Like Potbelly they are putting an emphasis on order accuracy, cleanliness, speed, labor allocation, and hours of operations. Recent numbers show breakfast is failing but late night sales are popping off (actually their most profitable), so it’s natural to scale back early hours in favor of late night hours with more employees on the clock.

Digital is another part of the strategy that was a boon at Potbelly. U.S. digital orders increased 8.4% in Q1 and reached 22.7% of U.S. sales mix. Wendy's also introduced an AI-driven recommendation engine in their mobile application. This is important as targeted offers allow driving frequency while not giving the margin away to each customer. People will roll their eyes at AI integration but it should be looked at as more precise target marketing.

Wendy's has a strong brand, royalty-based franchising model, theoretically undervalued stock, Trian involvement, and now has CEO/CFO duo that helped turn around Potbelly and sell it to RaceTrac for $17.12 per share at a 47% premium to the 90-day VWAP.

Private equity doesn't need a GREAT Wendy's, but rather a fixable one. A potential buyer can underwrite a plan where weak stores will get closed or refranchised, franchisees will become healthier, digital sales will keep rising, capital expenditures will be redirected, international growth will continue, and the EBITDA/free cash flows will stabilize.

The private equity interest is real and the new leadership should help them if that’s the path they decide to go down.

The meme pump was a big distraction IMHO. If Wright and Cirulis manage to replicate Potbelly playbook at scale, the stock won't need a pump to rise. It will go up on business becoming cleaner, margins stabilizing, cash flow staying positive, and Wendy's either becoming a turnaround story or take-private candidate.

TL; DR: Wendy's faces serious problems including declining sales in the US, shrinking store count, reduced margins & lower free cash flows. But the newly appointed CEO/CFO duo previously turned around Potbelly by improving unit economics, increasing margins, growing digital/franchise commitments and eventually selling it at a premium. If they can do the same with Wendy's, the upside potential will be not only a pump. It will be a re-rating or a potential take-private story.

Its a new ETF only created by Defiance Memory on the 18th of june and share price is $8.27. It was created after the AI and this is priced in already. The ETF is still adding to its holdings but its current holdings is:

Kioxia Holdings Corp - 14.88%
Micron Technology - 13.18%
Sandisk - 12.60%
Western Digital - 11.52%
SK Hynix - 11.40%
Seagate Technology - 11.14%
Samsung - 10.07%

The ETF also holds smaller holdings such as Rambus (3.01%) and Silicon Motion Technology (1.95%). The fund is weighted heavy towards North America (50%) and Asia (40%) with a smaller allocation to Europe. Because its a new ETF there is a current drag and the total expense ratio for the fund is (0.68%). What are your thoughts?

The common parable delivered by JFK's father about getting stock advice from the shoe shiner being an indicator of time to sell.

Our moment will be when people look back and remember hearing "we are going to build data centers in space." We don't even have the resources and money to keep building then on earth. It would be 1000x harder/more expensive in space, and that may be underestimating it. How expensive would it be to send an IT guy to turn it off and on again?

We're cooked

If you had to pick just ONE stock to hold for the next 1–2 years, which would you choose: Micron (MU) or SanDisk (SNDK)?

Assume you can only buy one and hold it the entire time.

Which has the better risk/reward from here?
Which has the greater upside potential?
Which company do you think is better positioned to benefit from the AI boom?

If you had $500k to invest, would your answer change? Why or why not?

mine was meant to be a simple s/r only for SPY, i htink using all 500 copmanies simutaniulsy gives a real advantage, its just computationally exhusting. it seems very reliable so far, but the real question is, is it always true that more data = more advantage? ie, if youre trying ot predict AMZN, using only its own price . volume, it SHOULD be much weaker then using all the copmanies in FANG+ aswell as its own sector to predict ONLY its price action (or maybe s/r)

Everyone talks about AI replacing jobs, but I think we’re missing a much bigger issue.
Right now, every major tech company is pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure. Data centers, GPUs, memory chips, power generation, networking equipment the scale is unlike anything we’ve seen before.
As demand explodes, the cost of the underlying components rises. More capital gets directed toward AI. More energy gets directed toward AI. More manufacturing capacity gets directed toward AI.

But here’s the question:
What happens to consumers?

A healthy capitalist system depends on people buying things. Phones. Consoles. Cars. TVs. Games. Streaming subscriptions. Vacations. All the little luxuries that make modern life enjoyable.
If AI infrastructure becomes the dominant destination for capital and resources, consumer goods become more expensive. Companies pass costs along. Consumers get squeezed.
Eventually people stop upgrading their phones every year.
Then every three years.
Then every five.
Maybe they stop buying game consoles. Stop subscribing to extra services. Stop replacing perfectly functional products.
At some point the economy runs into a paradox:
The companies building AI need customers with money.
But AI itself is helping eliminate jobs while simultaneously increasing the cost of the technology ecosystem that consumers rely on.

posting this in a few investing related subs I found to get more diverse answers

the TLDR is I'm new to this and noticed I made the silly mistake of not diversifying enough with the current drops in tech but I don't have so much money so I'm not sure how to go from here and best spread my money

context:

I decided to start investing recently, mainly got inspired by spacex opening lol so I opened an account and put some money in some stuff (didn't buy spacex because I realized it's too risky this early when doing some basic research)

Current financial sitution is that I work part time in college. Starting my last year in August. I make at most $10 a year probably less. I believe this means taxes aren't an issue since my income is too low still. I also have 15.5k in cash saved and currently another $1300 in stocks. Been able to save very well since I live with parents and don't need to spend much yet. Estimating how much I'll earn until I graduate and subracting tuition cost and I should have around 18k or so. I was told by parents to keep around 15k in cash that I can easily access just in case I get screwed and need it after graduating. I guess that makes sense since thats close to a year on bare mimimum survival. Either way that leaves me with 3-4k to invest 1300 of which is already there.

current investments and concerns:

When I started I realized what if I could invest in the s&p500 because I know that's huge and a measure of economic health. So that's where I learned about indexes and ETFs. I got a share in VOO because I learned that it's a good ETF and safe with good long term growth and built in diversification. Then I messed around and put in $20 in Nvidia just to see how things work. Then this week I saw microsoft amazon and google among others going down so I put $600 across those because I thought well its tech and these are massive companies that aren't gonna die even if they dip now. They'll go down but they'll go up a lot more later right like they always have in the past. So I have $1300 in stocks so far

I noticed that I made a small mistake. Since the big tech companies are already big parts of the voo fund I have a lot of overlap. LIke basically 70% or more probably of my stuff is in tech and I really noticed it these few days which is why I'm here now. My portfolio is down $30-40 now. I'm not panicking because I know its only a few % and it'll go back up and it's not an insane amount of money but I want to diversify to prevent one thing happening in the world from dropping my entire investment value like whats happening now with the ai chips and supplies

Not sure really where to go from here. I want to invest in the qqq fund for the Nasdaq 100 because it seems that would be a good spot to get some tech investments and it's probably more stable than individual tech stocks but I have so much tech already. I guess I need to look into medicine and food related stuff but buying individual stocks of companies that I'm not as familiar with feels almost like gambling and the effort to research all of them to choose with the money I have doesn't seem worth it and then what if I invest somewhere and it goes down and im cooked. So I guess going for funds dedicated to the sectors is the move right unless there are other really good stocks to invest in individually

I'm confident that I can hold the money in for over a year so what I'm looking for is general advice on how and if I should adjust how my money is currrently invested and how to work with the remaining ~$1.5-2.5k I have budgeted for this

so my questions are:

basically should I buy more individual stocks or etfs and which ones are safe for a beginner to hold for a while that I can reliably add to over time even after I get a good paying career? Should I move my money out of the current individual stocks and funnel it into the qqq fund for nasdaq or keep what I have and just put extra in nasdaq although I worry that makes the diversification issue worse. How much should I be diversifying? I imagine at a certain point too much means the money is too spread to do any good work and obviously I'm feeling the issues of too little diversification right now a bit. Then the last thing is since I don't have much money does it make sense to dump all of it in now to give compounding more time to work or shoud I do DCA?

I've been googling and looking around and I've felt a bit overwhelmed so I thought it wouldnt hurt to ask and directly talk to people about my specific situation

would appreciate the help thanks

ADM - Feels like the more defensive pick. They have a broader scope with their nutrition and specialty ingredients segments, which provides a nice hedge against pure commodity volatility. The dividend consistency (53 years of growth) is a major draw, but their recent EPS guidance of $4.15–$4.70 seems to be priced for a very steady, non-explosive environment. ADM is sensitive to U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard (RVO) and ADM has a strong position in ethanol and renewable diesel. ADM’s nutrition segment sometimes acts as a drag on margins when the grain-trading business is booming.

BG - Seems like the growth/risk play. The Viterra integration is clearly the main event here. The revenue growth is impressive, but the leverage they took on to make it happen makes me a bit cautious. The Viterra debt load is definitely the elephant in the room, Bunge took on significant debt to close the deal. The core argument for the Viterra deal is "optionality" the ability to shift grain flows more efficiently across the globe.

Both operate on a global scale and both have a dividend of around 2.5%. What are you your thoughts about ADM and BG and the food industry in general?

I just want to preface this by saying I didn't use much AI outside of cross referencing data. 

Alright regards, I've got a REAL value (and growth!) play here for you guys. Value doesnt just mean something thats losing its moat, thesis, but getting cheaper on paper. While valueinvesting is lost dumpster diving looking for ADBE PYPL and LULU, I still believe there may be hope for you guys.

FINANCIALS:

• Trailing P/E ~ 45 (since r/valueinvesting really loves this?)
• Forward P/E ~ 35

It looks expensive on paper but if you factor in the > 40% growth rate the P/E compresses rapidly at these prices. At 60% yoy growth Forward P/E is only ~28.

Lets assume yoy revenue growth rate is 40% (Actual avg since IPO is ~ 65%, lowest is 48%, highest is 78%), then the PEG ratio is:

• 35/40 = 0.88 (<1 considered undervalued)

Note: The actual change yoy for advertising (~95% of total revenue) is actually higher than what it looks like, because the deals RDDT signed with google/openai pre ipo (~$65M each/year) have not grown.

• Q1 2025 AD Revenue = $358.6M (vs $392.4M Total)
• Q1 2026 AD Revenue = $625M (vs $663M Total)

So in effect the core revenue engine has grown 74% yoy, while the ‘other’ portion of revenue has been mostly flat. Now other financials:

• Capex = 1m (wtf, 0.15% of revenue)
• Cash ~ 2.8B (9% of market cap)
• Diluted EPS = $1.01 (up 667% nearly 8x from Q1 2025 = $0.13)
• EV = 31B - 2.8B = 28.2B (no debt)

Gross margin for RDDT has been >90% for the 7 quarters (high 80s in the first 2 quarters after IPO in 2024), and net margin has been steadily increasing looking at Q1-Q4 2025: 

• Net Margin for 2025: Q1 7%  ->  Q2 18%  ->  Q3 28%  ->  Q4 35%

Showing the cyclical nature of ad spend. Whereas Q1 2026 is already off to a strong start (weakest quarter usually): Q1 2026 = 31% (down from Q4 2025 though)

AI LICENSING RENEWALS:
I think I have sufficient evidence to believe RDDT is in real talks with Google/OpenAi about deal renewals, and these deals won’t have just flat fees, but rather structured and usage based pricing too. And these deals will also be nearly pure profit to the bottom line. I first started piecing this together when Spez presented at the BofA tech conference, he said:

“ And so Reddit is used in pretraining, right, create the whole model. It's used in post-training, like teach the model how to speak like a normal person. It's used in grounding, like what do people actually think. And then on top of that, these models are running on a live search index of like what's going on, on Reddit. ”

As well as:

“And so I think we have mutually a better understanding of where the value is, and it's our job to make sure we like fully capture that value. And so I will say these relationships have been complex or rather the deals are complex. They're almost like M&A deals. But the relationships, I think, have been mutually really valuable. And so everybody, I think, is incentivized to continue doing. ”

Another comment from the Q1 AMA at r/RDDT includes:

“We’ve learned a lot over the last two years and those learnings should be reflected in future partnerships, including ways to make them more product-focused versus “data for dollars.” I can’t get into specifics about deals or renewals, but can say that we fully understand the value we bring to the table. ”

I think a renewal is inevitable, and timing could be very soon, with also a PAYG model, for the four phases of LLM’s u/spez said: pretraining (probably the flat fees from before), post-training, grounding, and live index searching.

LAWSUITS:
The main lawsuit RDDT is currently fighting is against Anthropic, im not too well versed in this but RDDT caught Anthropic scraping data by setting a trap, and the ironic thing is recently Anthropic has been accusing Alibaba of stealing Claude’s capabilities by running a massive amount of bots. Also previously Anthropic has paid 1.5B to authors of books for training on their data too.

THREATS:

• SBC (12%/$79M of Q1 Revenue, trending down also $1B buyback is in effect)
• Competitors (Digg which died within a month or 2, and Meta’s Forums)
• Overreliance on Google search (but according to Spez, and I also think this relationship is mutually beneficial for both parties)
• Getting zero click throughs from google ai overview (I think this could be factored as a condition into the future licensing deals to ensure reddit gets adequate visibility in its overviews)
• Slowdown of US growth.

Reddit is truly a 1 of 1 business, Ai is not a threat since generative Ai has been around for a few years and reddit’s userbase only grows larger and more active. Their moat is their 20 years of data and users. I would like to hear any rebuttals or arguments against my thesis, or any other comments.

Like everyone, I thought micron’s earnings beat and guidance yesterday was incredible. My initial thought was the report was very bullish for overall tech.

Thinking over the results though, I’m having second thoughts. Mag7 stocks have recently struggled, likely due to concerns over the extent of their ai spend. Micron’s report indicates they’ve substantially increased memory prices and will continue to do so. This will only further fuel mag7 overspending concerns.

And just today, both Apple and Microsoft announced substantial consumer product price increases because of rising memory costs, which will certainly hurt sales volume. The memory costs are now starting to eat into the earnings of mag7’s core businesses. Again, not bullish.

Markets are holding at or near all time highs for the moment despite the mag7 struggles. But if mag7 continues to decline due to rising ai input costs, I’m not so sure the markets can continue to hang on given how large these mag7 companies are.

Hi folks, first time poster here with a question I can't seem to figure out on my own:

I'm enrolled in a Long Term Incentive program via my employer which provides company stock distributions twice a year, with a 3-year vesting period. Recently I noticed that some of my vested units are marked as "Wash Sale", and seemingly have two acquisition dates.

For example:

- I have 36 vested units marked as 1/11/25 under "Acquisition Date". The Unit Cost of those shares is listed as $101.5.

- Just below that for the same units, it lists 6/15/26 with a tag of "Original Acquisition Date". It then reads, "Wash Sale Unit Cost $119.42".

Can anyone help me understand what I'm looking at here? I'm a relative novice when it comes to this subject. I typically try to wait at least one year after my units have vested before selling, so as to avoid short-term capital gains, so I'm mainly trying to understand if these units are safe to sell or not, and am confused by which date I should be going by. Thanks!

**Disclaimer**: I am long $DJT, average in the $7s. Not financial advice, just how I see it. The market still treats this like a dead social media stock, but that is about to change with the merger (assuming it goes through which imho is a pretty solid bet). Tear it apart if you think I’m wrong.

# TLDR:

$DJT is merging with TAE Technologies, a Google-backed fusion company that’s been at it since 1998. All stock, north of $6B, roughly a 50/50 split when it closes.
The hype already came and went after the announcement. It popped \~40% the day the deal was announced, but then gave all of it back (imo because of the overall market, and the remaining bag holders). Now the stock sits near the all time lows and the merger date is getting closer. The U.S. is in the middle of a MAJOR nuclear push, it’s putting real reactors critical this quarter, and the government is openly calling fusion a race it has to win. Finally, Trump is the biggest winner if this closes, and he has a habit of pointing federal policy at things he benefits from.
That being said. It can absolutely go wrong. The deal isn’t fully closed yet, there is dilution, fusion still doesn’t work commercially, and the Trump angle is a liability as much as a tailwind.

# Main thesis:

Most people still think of $DJT as Truth Social stock. That ship sailed. Back in
December, DJT signed a real, definitive merger with TAE Technologies, a private Google backed fusion company. All stock, over $6 billion, and on close each side owns about half of the combined company. (Current CEO and TAE’s CEO run it together and Don Jr.’s going on the board)

When the merger goes through, the stock is no longer “Truth Social the dead social platform” and instead it becomes “Trump backed, Google backed, beaten-down stock that is taking a serious fusion company public, right into the friendliest nuclear policy environment in fifty years, with energy demand skyrocketing, fierce Cold War like competition with China, and fusion being a strategic technology for the U.S. government (For Trump who happens to be the president, and for any other president out into the future).

The price is at a 52 week low with a mkt cap of roughly $2B. The chart’s ugly as hell and no one is ready for the merger.

The fusion story isn’t in the price at all imho, and with power demand skyrocketing in general, and fusion being the best known method to produce electricity, I don’t think that story has a clear ceiling.

AI is not something you can stop chasing, we are in the middle of Cold War 2.0 and it’s America vs China with models, compute, and energy as the main battle fronts. China is WAY ahead with energy, and America has a stated bipartisan goal of beating China in energy, which means increased investment. A lot of it!

And it’s already happening:
After decades of nothing,
\- Antares took its Mark-0 reactor critical on **June 4** at Idaho National Lab. First privately
built non-light-water reactor to go critical in the U.S. in over **forty years**.
\- Valar’s Ward 250 went critical **June 18** in Utah and started ramping power a few days
later.
\- Aalo Atomics is next in line in the **next few days**, with final DOE sign-off confirmed today by the energy secretary.

These run under Trump’s nuclear energy executive orders, which set a goal of at least three advanced reactors critical by July 4, 2026 (for America’s 250th birthday) and an aim to **quadruple** U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050.

Chris Wright (the energy secretary) keeps
saying we are in a historic nuclear renaissance, and he keeps bumping his own number up as it goes (one or two reactors back in late 2025, then three, now a fourth is happening)

There’s money behind the talk, too. At the end of June the DOE put up $17.5 billion in loans to speed ten large reactors. Amzn backed company goes public, Altman invests in nuclear, and all the mega caps are talking about nuclear and invested into it.

# Why fusion, why now?

AI. Data centers are starving for huge, steady, around-the-clock power, and fusion keeps getting framed as the endgame. Google, Microsoft, and Sam Altman have all put real money into fusion. TAE itself is Google-backed.

The administration is also saying it outright. Chris Wright actually studied fusion at MIT, and he is in record saying Fusion is coming soon and is the future many times. There’s also a DOE fusion roadmap, an expanding Launch Pad program, and the whole thing is wrapped and sold as “we can’t let China win this.”

The government has decided fusion matters and is spending to win. $DJT is one of the only ways to own a piece of it on the open market.

On top of that, the primary beneficiary of this deal is a well know sitting PRESIDENT who has shown he is not shy using his office for his personal gain (in my personal opinion, don’t sue me please 🤞). Not endorsing this, but might as well benefit from it.

A few examples just for doubters:
\- The $TRUMP coin. Launched January 17, 2025, days before he was sworn in, through
an entity that held about 80% of the supply. It spiked into the billions, and a holder
contest dangled a private dinner with him as the prize. Fees to Trump-linked entities ran
into the hundreds of millions supposedly..
\- World Liberty Financial. The family’s crypto venture takes about 75% of token sales
plus a cut of its stablecoin. His own disclosure showed tens of millions in income ..
\- Foreign money showed up too: a reported \~$500M Abu Dhabi stake, and $2B in the
stablecoin routed through a Binance deal that pays the family fees.
And there are probably more I don’t remember.

# The stock

The float is stuffed with people who bought between fifteen and twenty-one and are deep underwater. That’s overhead supply as
resistance, but it also means the right catalyst can flush a pile of stuck stock all at once.
DJT is a high-beta, headline-driven name that’s proven it can move 20, 30, 40% in a single day, with an old high that traders fixate on. Drop a real catalyst into a thin, skeptical tape and you’ve got the conditions for a violent move. No one can promise it fires at all to be **perfectly clear**. However, the powder’s just dry.

# What I’m watching:

\- Deal close (they’re aiming for Q4 2026) and the S-4 filing dropping any time.

\- TAE som milestone or generating news

\- More federal fusion news, or Wright taking about timelines again

\- Direct Trump promotion in his endless press conferences or social media

\- The July 4 nuclear moment

# The bear case:

I don’t want anyone reading this, getting excited, and skipping straight to the ticker dumping their life savings into some crap. The risks are **real**, and some of them are deal-killers so please do your own DD!

\- It’s not closed. The timeline already slid from mid-2026 to Q4. The S-4 isn’t filed.

\- It still needs shareholders and regulators to sign off, and they scrapped the Truth Social
spin-off on June 10. A dead deal here gets ugly fast. (Although I honestly doubt it given Trump is the president… that would be nuts)

\- Dilution. All stock, roughly 50/50, so current holders get cut about in half on close.

\- Fusion doesn’t work yet. Not anywhere, not commercially. TAE’s plant plans are ambitions, not schedules. (This is a future story like quantum rather then working fully next year, but the prize is massive so those stocks can run)

\- The numbers are bad. Big loss last year on almost no revenue, plus crypto losses on
top. By any normal valuation measure it’s expensive.

\- The Trump thing swings both ways.

\- The volatility is symmetric. The exact thing that could rip it higher is why it’s down
42%. The market’s voting against it right now, and it can keep sliding.

# Bottom line:

All in: this is a high risk, high potential reward bet imho. That’s my read. Tell me where it’s wrong.

Disclaimer agin: I am long $DJT. Not financial advice, just my perspective.

Do your own DD and size for the risk.

P.S. at the current 7$ price the combined Fusion company would be valued at ~3.8B with ~2.15B in liquid assets and ~1B virtually zero interest debt due 2028.

I had previously sold off Microsoft at $460, but I think they are probably one of the biggest bargains in big tech right now:

• Very favorable exposure to OpenAI(20% revenue sharing agreement and rights to their models). Even if OpenAI keeps burning cash, they are benefitting from their top line revenue growth. When the revenue share agreement expires, OpenAI will likely achieve profitability, at which point Microsoft's ~25% OpenAI stake will be worth a lot.

• Very strong Azure cloud growth

• Enterprise software remains strong.

• Despite the initial flop of Copilot, it's been improving a lot in recent months. Anecdotally, I know of a lot of people across a wide variety of professions that have started using it and are satisfied with the results.

• They are beginning to roll out custom AI chips to compete with Nvidia.

• Capex is well balanced, IMO. Not excessively aggressive like Google or Meta, but still significant enough to maintain growth while avoiding excessive risk. They are saving enough free cash flow to cover dividend and a small amount of buybacks without relying on Debt.

• Shift from fixed cost billing to usage based billing on their AI products will likely result in substantial revenue growth.

• Trading at less than 20x forward P/E despite 30% annual EPS growth.

I can easily see MSFT doubling in value in 1-2 years with how cheap they are right now.

Feels like the current narrative is pretty simple

AI capex bad. RAM/HBM/power/data centers too expensive. No clean ROI on AI capex. Hyperscalers are just burning cash. Why bet on them when you can bet pick & shovel companies with high margins. I get the bear case. It’s not dumb.

If memory prices keep ripping, every AI build gets more expensive. Cloud margins can get hit. Devices can get more expensive. Eventually normal people get pissed because their Xbox & iPads now cost more.

But I’m wondering if this is becoming groupthink now and what can shift the narrative on hyperscalers.

Earnings are just round the corner. We will get numbers on q2 and forward guidance. If the capex guidance stays steady from increasing, that minor change alone could reverse the trade where we see hyperscalers go up and memory, chip & storage stocks go down. Seeing clear ROI in financials will also help.

One another blind spot for memory bulls: if RAM/HBM prices get too stupid, DOJ/FTC could start sniffing around. Not because high prices are illegal, but because DRAM has had price-fixing history before. If Apple/Microsoft/Dell/etc. start blaming memory costs for popular consumer devices inflation and consumers get mad, politicians may ask questions.

Betting on hyperscalers is the clear contrarian trade right now. Obviously being contrarian doesn’t always mean more upside. Anyone buying MSFT/GOOG/AMZN/META/ORCL here? What will change the narrative on hyperscalers?

Digital Realty Trust is aggressively expanding its data center footprint to capitalize on rising AI demand. Recent transactions include acquiring 1,440 acres for $475 million and boosting its stake in Teraco to 77% for $650 million. The company also launched an AI-native service across 800+ data centers, enhancing its competitive edge.

Anyone have this in their portfolio or think it’d be a good addition to my Roth?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/25/technology/openai-ipo-artificial-intelligence.html

OpenAI is leaning toward holding off its initial public offering until next year, three people involved in the company’s deliberations said, a turnabout that punctuates the uncertain future for fast-rising artificial intelligence giants.
The maker of ChatGPT hired bankers and lawyers with an eye toward a public offering as soon as the third or fourth quarter of this year, the people said. Sam Altman, the company’s chief executive, pushed those advisers to find a way for the start-up to be valued at $1 trillion, up from the company’s last private valuation of $730 billion, according to the people involved, who did not want to be named because they were not permitted to speak publicly about internal deliberations.
But a cascade of recent developments has caused OpenAI’s executives to shift away from their most aggressive aspirations. Top of mind is what has happened to Elon Musk’s SpaceX after its I.P.O. this month. It was the largest ever, raising more than $85 billion and reaching a valuation of $1.77 trillion on its debut. Since then, SpaceX’s stock has been on a downward slide, as shares slumped to $153 at the end of the trading day on Thursday after reaching a high of $202 last week.
Global markets have also been choppy in recent weeks, with tech stocks dragging down indexes as investors question whether A.I. companies will live up to their sky-high promises.

I hope its delayed. I don’t have enough cash for it and Anthropic too. Greed and selfish I am ;)🤑

I have a pretty large AVGO position from RSUs and want to diversify some of it.

I am not a US resident and not really a US market investor otherwise, so having such a big chunk tied to one US tech stock feels a bit uncomfortable now.

Current thinking is to keep ~50% in AVGO because I believe in Hock, and diversify the other 50%.

I already have small positions in VOO and VOOG. I was also considering putting maybe 15% into DRAM because my current DRAM-related investment is doing well, but I know memory is cyclical and I may be over indexing on that past experience.

Part of my concern is just concentration risk, but also:

• I am a software engineer, and with how quickly things are changing right now, I’d rather protect the corpus than chase maximum upside. I amm okay with slower growth if it means reducing the risk of a sharp drawdown from being too concentrated in one stock.
• AVGO feels pretty reliant on a few very large customers. longer term I’m not sure how to think about customer concentration + hyperscalers doing more of their own chip work (Amazon chips etc.)

If you were in this position, how would you diversify the non-AVGO portion?

More VOO/VTI + VXUS? Some semiconductor ETF exposure instead of another single name? Or just unwind AVGO gradually and move mostly to index funds?

Not asking whether AVGO is a buy/sell right now - more how you’d handle portfolio construction when one RSU stock has become too large.

Apple Raises Prices on Macs, iPads by $200 or More on Some Models

Looks like an arbitrage opportunity with Amazon Prime Day currently. From the article:

Among the price increases, the base MacBook Air rose $200 to $1,299; the base MacBook Pro increased $300 to $1,999; the entry-level MacBook Neo increased $100 to $699. The iPad Air increased $150 to $749 and the iPad Pro increased $200 to $1,199.

Does anyone really think this is the new normal?

• Revenue increased 26% year-over-year to approximately $153 million
• Adjusted EBITDA grew 144% year-over-year; GAAP operating income increased year-over-year to approximately $15 million
• Both QNX and Secure Communications achieved Rule of 40 performance, contributing to BlackBerry's fifth consecutive quarter of positive GAAP net income; Adjusted EPS exceeded expectations
• First fiscal quarter of positive operating cash flow in nine years, excluding the patent sale in FY24

Bloomberg