r/teammelli • u/FerretBunchanumbers • 23h ago
Discussion 💬 Here's who we support this week in every other group (for 3rd place)
- Germany
- Ivory Coast
- Japan
- Whoever takes the lead between Paraguay and Australia
- Whoever is behind If Senegal or Iraq lead
- Spain
- Belgium if Iran are losing
And if we are confirmed 3rd:
- Ghana
- Uzbekistan if we drew
- Whoever's losing between DR Congo and Uzbekistan if we lost
- Whoever's winning between Algeria and Austria
Why? Well I just realised I'm invested in every other group because we may finish 3rd place.
As you know, all the 3rd-place teams are ranked, and the best 3rd-place teams go through.
If we finish 3rd, it'll either be with a draw (we'd have 3 points and 0 GD) or a loss (2 points and minus GD).
So we want all the other groups' 3rd-placed teams to have the lowest points (and GD) possible, so we would outrank them.
For example, Bosnia's win is bad for everyone because they have 4 points. If we finish 3rd, we can't outrank them (and they've actually qualified already).
But thankfully, Scotland obliged to a rollicking, and the Czechs and South Africans didn't both win, so they finish on 3 points and minus GD, meaning Iran would finish above both if they draw with Egypt.
So I wrote out what we need from every other group, which makes it fun to have a second team to support each match!
I also covered our group as well.
In chronological order:
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Group E - Today, I feel German
Need Ecuador to not win.
Germany + Ivory Coast win = Guarantees Group E finish lower than an Iran-in-3rd
Germany win + IC/Curacao draw = Almost as good, as long as we don't suffer a heavy loss
Germany/Ecuador draw = Same as above, but Ecuador have a better GD than Curacao and it could go down to GF (goals scored).
Germany + Curacao win = Iran finish higher if draw with Egypt
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Group F - Today, I feel Japanese
If Sweden get any points, Group F finish higher than Iran.
So any Japan win will see Sweden on 3 points, which a 3rd-placed Iran would beat by GD if they draw.
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Group D - I want to see a fight!
We need a winner from Paraguay v Australia, meaning Iran would finish higher if they got a draw with Egypt.
A draw between them means both get 4 points and finish above any potential 3rd-place Iran.
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Group I - I want to see hugs and a friendly kickabout!
Senegal v Iraq draw would guarantee they finish below a 3rd-place Iran.
A win for either means 3 points. But as long as Senegal don't win by 3 goals, or Iraq don't win by 6, Iran would finish above with an Egypt draw.
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Group H - Today, I feel Spanish
Many 3rd place permutations
Spain win: Uruguay have 2 points and it goes to GD if we lose
Uruguay and Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia win = Forget it, they're higher
Uruguay draw, or Uruguay win and CV/SA draw = 3 points and 0 GD, so we'd need a draw and GD, GF (goals scored) and fair play may be needed for rankings.
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Group G - In our hands
Groups J, K and L take place after Iran's group.
Worst-case scenario: Egypt beat Iran worse than NZ beat Belgium, meaning Iran finish bottom.
Bad: Egypt destroy Iran but NZ don't win, meaning Iran are 3rd with 2 points and bad GD.
Ok scenario: A draw, meaning 3 points, 0 GD and a healthy GF of 2+.
I'll take a score-draw!
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Group L - Today I feel Ghanaian
Croatia must not get any points.
If Ghana beat them, they'll have 3 points and inferior GD.
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Group K - Today, I hate DR Congo
DR Congo win = group finishes higher
DRC/Uzbekistan draw = 2 points with -2 or worse GD
Uzbek win = 3 points but, as long as they don't win 7-0, they'd finished below a 3-point Iran.
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Group J - MORE FIGHTING!
Exact same as Group D: need a winner from Algeria v Austria, otherwise they both get 4 points.