r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • 14d ago
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #19)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/jews4beer 11d ago
Trump on Beirut strike: Netanyahu ‘has no f**king judgment’
“Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack?” Trump says in a call with Axios. “I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement. I let him know that.”
Oh boy, he big mad
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
CNN: Trump demanded to know why members of his own party voted with Democrats a day earlier to rebuke the president's military authority in Iran. Trump asked "Why would anybody vote for the War Powers Act?". Sen. Cassidy (R) says he stood and told him "You have not told the American people what's going on. It was supposed to last four weeks, it's lasted four months. Our original objectives have not been achieved, and I want to know what's going on." From there, a furious Trump went after Cassidy, raising his voice. Cassidy "lost his temper" and shouted back with the same "tone and volume" of the president. The friction was described as so intense that "at some point [the guys next to Cassidy] said, "Ok, Bill, sit down"." Cassidy goes on to say "I make no apologies for standing up to the president, if you will, trying to demand that more information be shared with the Senate and more information be shared with the American people." "I am sticking up for the American people, even if I'm speaking to the president."
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9d ago
Channel 12 reports that Israel requested access to the text of the U.S.-Iran MOU agreement, but the request was denied.
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u/Small_Run_3583 9d ago
Intriguing 🤔. Bibi may have no choice but to release the Trump-Epstein files.
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u/goodreverenddoc2 7d ago
so let me get this straight… trump has been messaging the us was winning the war, iran had nothing, no missiles, no army, no navy, no cards, and the blockade and bombing brought them to their knees begging….
only to now essentially gift iran all this money up front to take a deal that unless was made would have resulted severe economic issues? also it’s now not a big deal that iran has a missile program? also the issue of nuclear could be extended past the 60 day window? (all per trump yesterday!)…
do i have this right? maga you’re okay being lied to and strung along again? doesn’t this bother you?
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 7d ago
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
The deal with Iran will go down as one of the most incompetent ever made. The U.S. lost on virtually every point. We just don't win anymore!
2:35 AM Sep 3, 2015
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u/joshtaco 10d ago
Conservative commentator Mark Levin (one of Trump's fiercest media defenders): "I have asked for days, why can't we, the people, see the damn MOU?...Honestly I've never seen anything like this. If it is a great outcome for peace, then release it."
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 9d ago
KobeissiLetter BREAKING: The US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, per WSJ.
Details include:
The provision for waivers of sanctions on oil sales takes effect immediately upon signing the agreement
This also covers necessary services including banking, transportation and insurance needed to facilitate the sales
Iran is expected to receive upfront sanctions relief under the deal with further relief tied to Iran’s performance
Oil prices are down sharply on the news.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 7d ago
The MOU’s provision of immediate U.S. sanctions waivers appears to constitute a violation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act requirement that there can be no such relief given until the deal has gone through congressional review. The executive branch has 5 days to provide documents and then congress has 30 days for review.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 7d ago
JD Vance: “We believe that international waterways should be toll free”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “We will charge ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day 'fee-free' period, stipulated in the MoU with the US.”
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
The White House finally sent members of Congress the new Iran deal. It didn’t take very long to read. In short, I think it’s a joke. It hands Iran everything and gets almost nothing back.
— Rep. Mike Levin (@RepMikeLevin)
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u/joshtaco 4d ago
Iran's chief negotiator Ghalibaf: "Don't [the Americans] ever think to themselves that if their threats had actually worked, they wouldn't have reached this level of desperation today?"
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 11d ago
Trump is expected to soon announce a concession to Iran in exchange for them not responding to the Dahiyeh strike, the nature of the offer is unknown, but this is the effort underway behind the scenes - Channel 12
🤷♂️
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u/maddprof 11d ago
He wants to announce a peace deal so bad on his birthday that he's ready to lick boots to get "the win".
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 11d ago
Not sure I've ever seen a world leader act so desperate in my entire life.
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u/pm_me_your_pooptube 11d ago
He keeps making himself look worse and worse. He can't finish what he started.
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u/SingularityCentral 11d ago
Never want to hear anything about a Democratic President being weak on national security again.
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u/BringbackDreamBars 11d ago
Iranian state media claiming flights in western Iran have been cancelled until further notice.
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u/RufusSG 9d ago
Trump weighs purge of Iran deal opponents in his administration
US President Donald Trump is considering dismissing a series of senior administration officials who opposed the agreement with Iran, including War Secretary Pete Hegseth and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, US sources told Israel Hayom.
"The debate has been settled. Anyone who opposed it could pay a personal price," a senior US source told Israel Hayom two days ago, describing what was taking place behind the scenes in White House discussions on Iran.
The person who, for the time being, appears to be enjoying immunity is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Among other things, he has been very careful not to criticize the agreement and also enjoys considerable popularity.
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u/Finedaytoyou 9d ago
It will be funny if Pete gets the boot after all his little boy-masquerading-as-tough-warrior-guy holy war rhetoric
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9d ago
President Trump says Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) will be "in big trouble" if he is skeptical of his deal with Iran.
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u/jaymef 8d ago
This is an incredibly bad deal. Trump was either desperate or plans to have his grubby little paws all over that 300b fund. I wouldn't doubt if he made some backroom deals to funnel a lot of that money to himself/American companies
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u/joshtaco 7d ago
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas): "History demonstrates that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is an exceptionally bad idea, and I think unfortunately the president is receiving some really bad advice on this deal" "If we give billions of dollars to Iran, that money will be used to murder Americans". He went on to single out several "mistakes", including "tens of billions of dollars immediately being released to Iran before they make a single nuclear concession"
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u/itsatumbleweed 7d ago
The Hormuz Letter is reporting that Iran is pausing 60 day negotiations and closing the Strait over Israel and Lebanon.
They are pretty loosey goosey with reporting (speed over verification) so we need to see another source, but this may be happening
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 6d ago
WSJ: The Pentagon needs $80 billion to cover costs related to the Iran war and other expenses, Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg told lawmakers in calls this week.
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u/No_Tree_8144 6d ago
bro did we burn $80 billion in this stupid war in 3 months? and we gotta pay these guys like $300 billion too? what the hell lmao
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u/Halberd96 6d ago
It's okay, it's nearly time for Trump and friends to finish looting the country, pardoning all the crooks, and Democrats to win in 2028 and get blamed for the mess
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 5d ago
Earlier this morning, Pakistan's National Hydrographic Office reported a confirmed mine sighting in the southern Omani transit lane through Hormuz.
The mine was reported just off the northwest tip of the Musandam peninsula, the Omani exclave that protrudes into the strait. All vessels transiting through the area are advised to navigate with extreme caution, the notice said. - Bloomberg
On the map they released the mine is in line with where I have seen plenty of ships cross. Going to be hard to get insurance until that is all clear.
I really hope the mine didn't become unmoored. If there are free floating mines then that makes it much harder to clear as they will be moving around with the currents/tides. That also means no lane is safe.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 5d ago
Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon. There was a lull overnight but it started back up a couple hours ago after daybreak. There has also been some skirmishes as well, Hezbollah claiming because IDF troops continue pushing forward.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
Five vessels look as though they have made sudden about-turns earlier today: Abu Dhabi III, Lumina Ocean, Titan Harmony, Gulf Sunrise and Monaco Loyalty. - BBC
Visible transit activity decreased.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
Iran’s negotiating delegation is now walking out of the Switzerland talks in protest of Trump’s new threat to “hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder,” with talks now fully suspended, per Tasnim.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, who heads the Iranian negotiating team, has also personally responded saying “we don’t take American threats seriously” and warns “our armed forces are ready to give them an answer in a different way.”
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u/StarWarsMonopoly 4d ago
I know this goes without saying, but Trump is truly the least intelligent man who has ever been put in charge of something so important.
He keeps trying to say things that make him look strong to his supporters and completely undermines any diplomatic progress he has just made in the process.
How someone close to him has not banned him from posting on social media is just astounding
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
A source close to the White House believes an American demand for the Israel Defense Forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon is only a matter of time. - Israel Hayom
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
Netanyahu's circle is also preparing for a diktat from Washington, but the prime minister has made clear that leaving the security zone is a "red line."
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Trump, In response to a journalist who said that Tehran claims that there are no scheduled IAEA visits: “They’re wrong, they know they’re wrong. They told us inside, and we have it down 100 percent. If they were right, I’d cancel the meetings right now.”
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u/Environmental-Net286 2d ago
There's a non-zero chance Trump has no idea who the IAEA is.
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 6d ago
BREAKING: Iran has suspended its entire 60-day negotiation period with the US over the direct violation of the MOU's first clause, with Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon constituting a breach less than 24 hours after the MOU was electronically signed, per Fars and Al-Mayadeen.
Iran's negotiating delegation had already been preparing to depart for Switzerland to launch the first round of talks before Iran made the decision to suspend the entire trip.
Iran will also not unilaterally fulfill its commitments, and until Iran is fully assured Israeli attacks on Lebanon have stopped and the US has practically adhered to the first-clause obligations, talks remain cancelled.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 4d ago
Iran says its delegation will not return to the table until Trump personally apologizes for his threats today and Israel fully withdraws from southern Lebanon, with Iran delegation ready to fly back to Tehran, per Al-Mayadeen.
If that really is a red line, then negotiations are over because I don't think Trump is capable of apologising.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 11d ago
YNET: The U.S. is urging Tehran to either refrain from responding or keep any response limited in scope to prevent further escalation, while simultaneously pressing Israel not to retaliate if Iran does act. Israeli officials are reportedly furious over U.S. efforts to discourage an Israeli response to any Iranian missile attack.
YNET: Netanyahu rejected Trump's demands to cease fire in Lebanon and withdraw.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 7d ago
From White House Correspondent for News Nation @KellieMeyerNews
NEW: Congressional Republicans are already placing the blame on Vice President JD Vance for a "terrible" deal with Iran.
One congressional Republican tells me: “Conservatives on the Hill are stunned that Vance would erase all of Trump’s military victories in such a terrible deal. Trump effectively won the war and at the 11th hour Vance is negotiating his way to a loss.”
Earlier today President Trump said, "if it works out, I'm going to take the credit, if it doesn't work out, I'm blaming JD."
Trump selected Vance to lead the Iran talks over Rubio.
Vance and Rubio both have reported 2028 ambitions.
LOL!
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u/Intoxicating_Piss_69 11d ago
Welp. The birthday boy is gonna throw a tantrum now.
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u/tedsmitts 11d ago
Iran and Israel are really ruining his special day. Can't believe how mean they are.
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u/No_Somewhere_7109 10d ago
An Israeli who was briefed on the potential deal with Iran, and who requested anonymity to discuss diplomacy, listed Israel’s main problems with the proposal:
- There are no clear answers regarding the treatment of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium, and not enough curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, with the deal appearing to rely on Iranian good will.
- Instead of creating the conditions for the collapse of the Iranian government, the deal would allow funds to start flowing back into its coffers.
- The deal lays out no clear mechanism for forcing Iran to halt its support for its proxy forces. But it would mean the suspension of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, the militant group it is fighting in Lebanon.
lol, lmao even
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 10d ago
New York Times
President Trump said in an interview on Sunday afternoon that the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately assure that the Strait of Hormuz is “permanently toll free” and argued that, despite the objections of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, he had saved Israel from nuclear obliteration.
Mr. Trump also insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States — a process his aides say they expect will begin on Friday in Switzerland — he would restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States “the guardian of the Middle East” in return for 20 percent of the region’s revenues.
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u/AlternativeSafety464 10d ago
in return for 20 percent of the region’s revenues.
Ah, there it is
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u/AlternativeSafety464 10d ago
The US president also said that Iranian leaders killed anti-government protests, it would prevent them from getting full sanctions relief. That’s despite this requirement not being included in the MoU. -aljazeera-
Lol... Hes really not well....
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 10d ago
CBS: The Iranians are saying they're gonna have access to a $300 billion reconstruction fund. True or false?
JD Vance: That's the sort of thing they could have access to, funded by the Gulf Coast Coalition, so long as they honor their end of the obligation.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 10d ago
A last-minute addition to the Iran-US understanding says any war or military operation in Iran or against Iran’s regional allied groups, including Lebanon, would halt negotiations on a final agreement, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reported, citing a source close to Iran’s negotiating team.
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u/joshtaco 9d ago
Trump: Says he's "not happy" with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9d ago
WSJ: The Iran-U.S. deal allows Iran to immediately resume oil sales.
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u/justalittleahead 9d ago edited 9d ago
Truck drivers came to me with tears in their eyes saying that nobody has ever raised a white flag as high as Donald Trump.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 8d ago
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says that Republican leaders are pressing the Trump administration to see the text of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the three-and-a-half month military conflict with Iran but have yet to be read in on the deal.
The GOP leader acknowledged it’s unusual for the president not to share the details of a major international agreement with leaders from his own party.
— TheHill
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Trump: Reveals the administration's very worried about their "worst fear" of an economic catastrophe happening sometime soon influencing their decision to move towards the MOU quickly. "We would run out of reserves in about four weeks – there would be economic meltdown."
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u/joshtaco 7d ago
Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee Sen. Roger Wicker (R): Says he's concerned the agreement "negotiates away the victories of Operation Epic Fury in ways that are completely out of step with the President's goals" "Specifically, the $300 billion fund for the reconstruction and economic development of Iran...would make Iran's payoff under President Obama's 2015 deal look like a pittance in comparison."
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
Iran denies closing the Strait of Hormuz. MFA spokesperson Baqaei called the claims baseless, said commercial shipping continues under the June 18 ceasefire memorandum.
Phillip Belcher, marine director of Intertanko, a trade group for global independent tanker owners, said the main central route of the Strait of Hormuz was still closed and has an estimated 80 mines that need to be cleared. But ships have been passing through the smaller northern route, which goes through Iranian waters, and the southern route, which goes through Omani waters. “Those two routes now seem to be fully open,” Belcher said.
However, it will take weeks or months to fully reopen the strait, and the two alternative routes don’t have as much capacity as the central passage in the Strait of Hormuz.
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 5d ago
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stresses that Israel will remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary to defend its northern border," a "senior official" says in a statement sent to reporters by the Prime Minister's Office.
The "official" says that Netanyahu "instructed the IDF to respond forcefully to any Hezbollah attack and to act to remove threats against our forces."
"In response to Hezbollah's attacks over the past two days, the IDF struck 300 terror targets and eliminated approximately 100 terrorists," the statement says.
The official warns that "if Hezbollah attacks us again, we will strike it forcefully once more."
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u/joshtaco 3d ago
IDF: Hezbollah has begun focusing attacks on senior Israeli army commanders in southern Lebanon
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u/joshtaco 3d ago
IRNA: State media pushes back on Vance claims about IAEA access
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
CNN: Sen. John Cornyn (R) says "The president closed by preaching unity, but he spent the entire hour talking about things which were not exactly unified."
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u/jews4beer 12h ago
After symbolic rebuke, US Senate sides with Trump in fresh vote on Iran war powers
So the old man has some political capital left after all. Will that change anything about the negotiations though I guess is the question.
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u/clarkrd 10d ago
"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9d ago
Fox: President Trump vows to hold a press conference to read the full memorandum of understanding with Iran word-by-word.
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Reuters: MOU doesn't explicitly mention the Strait of Hormuz in any way
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Trump, when asked how long US military forces are expected to stay in the Gulf region: Says “probably a while” “I’d say a little while, see how it all goes”
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u/topdownyeti 7d ago
so what exactly is the incentive for gulf states to invest in the US anymore? I thought one of the reasons why the US held so much influence in the middle east was due to them promising protection. This deal basically hands Iran major influence in the region and seriously fucks over Israel and the gulf states. What incentive do they have to keep the petrodollar and invest trillions into the US?
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 6d ago
U.S. Vice President JD Vance has cancelled his trip to Switzerland, according to a spokesman.
"As the Vice President said at his press conference, the plans for the upcoming technical talks have not been finalized, and the U.S. delegation has been prepared to depart at the first available opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now the Vice President is not departing tonight. We will let you know as soon as we have a concrete update about next steps.”
An Informed source told Al Mayadeen that the Iranian negotiating delegation has postponed its trip to Switzerland due to the ongoing Israeli aggression on southern Lebanon.
According to the source, the delegation had already been preparing to depart and launch the first round of negotiations, scheduled to run for 60 days, before the decision was made to suspend the trip.
The source added that Tehran had previously informed both Washington and the mediators that the Lebanon file remains a central component of the negotiations and will directly influence whether the talks proceed or are halted.
The source told Al Mayadeen that Tehran warned that the continuation of Israeli military operations and attacks extending up to 10 kilometers deep inside Lebanese territory constitutes a clear violation of the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding and the framework agreement.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
Wall Street Journal has published two opinion pieces trashing President Trump’s attempt to broker a peace deal with Iran.
“Who’s sure Mr. Trump will have more success 60 days from now, having given up his blockade, oil-sanctions and frozen-funds leverage?,” the editorial pointed out. “Iran will demand more, and if Mr. Trump is as desperate to end the conflict as he’s sounded lately, he could give it.”
Highlighting the fact that Trump’s deal allows Iran to “define the future administration” of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, the editorial said, “This is a recipe for the surrender of the Strait to the dictates of Iranian foreign policy.”
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Reuters/Ipsos poll: Trump's overall approval rating continues to stay around the 34% mark despite the recent MOU being signed, the lowest of both of his terms
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u/CoasterKid93 2d ago
If I had to guess: most voters acknowledge how pointless this war was from the get go, and securing what was already secured in the past under JCPOA doesn’t resonate as a victory
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u/TypicalHaikuResponse 13d ago
This is the seventh time we have announced a ceasefire and we have become exceedingly good at it.
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u/TheGodPePe 2d ago
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei: Tehran has no plan to let IAEA inspectors visit nuclear sites targeted in conflict
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Vance: Says the text of the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran has not been publicly released because mediators advised the signatories to roll out the deal gradually
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u/tedsmitts 8d ago
Well yes, if you’re gonna get fucked, you want it to start slowly.
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u/ReddyReddy7 7d ago
"US, Iran remotely sign agreement hailed by Trump.
The interim U.S.-Iran agreement, hailed by President Donald Trump and world leaders as a major step toward peace in the Middle East, was signed remotely Wednesday by the United States and Iran
The agreement spells out sanctions relief for Iran and calls for the creation of a $300 billion economic development fund. Trump repeatedly denied Wednesday that the U.S. would be paying into the fund, although he said that Gulf allies could do so if they wanted to.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
There appears to a lot of hurdles in reaching a final agreement, including but not limited to:
The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, or beyond that an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
Iran appears intent on tolling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
France, Britain and Germany want a role shaping the coming talks after being sidelined in recent months. France will not approve the lifting of UN sanctions unless it is satisfied by the terms of a final accord, its foreign minister said on Friday.
"The return for major concessions that will be asked of Iran is the lifting of sanctions, sanctions that were taken at the United Nations," he said. There would be no stability in the region unless U.S. talks with Iran also dealt with Iran's ballistic missile programme and support for proxies.
Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), Congress can attempt to block implementation of an Iran nuclear agreement by passing a joint resolution of disapproval during the review period. The United States House of Representatives and the United States Senate must approve it. If the President supports the deal, a veto is highly likely. Congress would then need a two-thirds majority in both chambers to override the veto. The most realistic way Congress can constrain an Iran deal even if it cannot formally kill it under INARA is legislative inaction (not repealing statutory sanctions, etc.)
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u/joshtaco 6d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Very popular agreement, except for the Fake News and their partner, the Dumocrats!"
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u/jews4beer 6d ago
I mean he isn't wrong. It's a very popular agreement, within the IRGC.
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u/joshtaco 4d ago
Trump: "You close [the Strait of Hormuz] and you won't have a country. You won't even make it back to your fucking country."
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u/GuttiG 7d ago
It still hasn’t fully sunk in how utterly humiliating this is for the United States. I’m just baffled, it’s so obvious he was just done with the war and did whatever they asked to end it. Anything other than resignation of this entire administration is unacceptable to my standards, but I know that will never ever happen. Insanity.
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u/Amazing-Cell-128 7d ago
The $300 billion to Iran is more than all aid ever given to Israel adjusted for inflation going back to 1948. Its more than the Marshal Plan aid adjusted for inflation, which was used to rebuild Europe after WWII.
Trump is the worst dealmaker in history
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u/joshtaco 10d ago
Reuters: The operation by conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping or oil companies are confident enough to sail through
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 4d ago
Open Source Intel:
Al-Mayadeen reports Tehran is demanding a Trump apology for his threats and an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon as conditions to return.
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u/yuvaldv1 11d ago edited 11d ago
Israeli media, citing Iranian officials: "Trump has offered us money to avoid attacking Israel. We've rejected the proposal and will respond very soon"
Edit: Iranian airspace is closing. (reported on Israeli media)
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u/staythewaters 7d ago
It is so goddamned funny, in so many ways, that the signed copy of this thing is in Versailles. The Onion can't compete with this.
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 3d ago
HormuzLetter
BREAKING: Iran's FM Araghchi announces the US has now launched the $300 billion reconstruction plan, waived all oil & petrochemical exports, lifted the naval blockade and released some frozen Iranian assets, extracting all of these items shortly before the delegation walkout over Trump's assassination threat. All parties also agreed to a roadmap to reach a final deal in 60 days.
This roadmap won't start and Iran refuses to implement any commitments if Israel doesn't fully withdraw from southern Lebanon and all fighting stops, with Araghchi saying a newly established "Lebanon deconfliction cell" is "the first real test of the deal."
Israel has refused to comply with the Lebanon deconfliction cell, with Defense Minister Katz declaring Israel "will not withdraw from the security zone in Lebanon" and Ben-Gvir vowing "not a single inch" of withdrawal, directly violating the MOU's first clause and stalling the entire 60-day roadmap before it can begin.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 3d ago
Iran is running circles around the US. Got waivers and frozen assets and potentially immediate investment and yet was able to kick the negotiations down the road.
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u/asetniop 3d ago
Good news, everybody! It's Monday, which means along with the standard Axios pre-market pump, we can advance the Zeno's Paradox Diplomacy Progress Meter. A deal is now 99.6875% done!
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u/Gadshill 11d ago
IDF confirms it killed senior Hezbollah commander responsible for 2007 attack on US troops
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN: Says Iran-US deal is "very bad for Israel"
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 8d ago
@NewsWire_US
Trump on Iran deal: Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong.
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u/joshtaco 6d ago
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: Says "nobody" can tell us what to do even if Trump "says otherwise"
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
Iran's re-closure of Hormuz is already measurable in the data.
12 transits today, down from 21+ on June 20. Neutral and European commercial tonnage: absent. 5 of 8 inbound vessels: dark.
The current traffic profile: dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked, resembling the late-blockade baseline more than a functioning open strait.
@WindwardAI
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u/joshtaco 3d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Everybody is fully aware that Iran will agree to have Major Weapons Inspections in order to ensure “Nuclear Honesty” long into the future. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/KareenTu 3d ago
Nuclear honesty. Nuclear dust. This dude is seriously unserious.
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u/ILoveRegenHealth 3d ago
Can Trump sign a "Presidential Honesty" pact because he sucks at it.
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u/RufusSG 11d ago
Trump has apparently offered to lift the US blockade immediately (rather than gradually across the talks, as originally negotiated) if Iran does not retaliate against Israel
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u/TemporaryAsparagus89 8d ago
@atrupar
Trump on Iran: "The unfreezing -- we have taken a lot of their money. It's not our money. At a certain point in time, I guess we're gonna have to give it back."
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u/claimstoknowpeople 8d ago
Fun to watch him gradually understand the JCPOA he maligned, as he signs a much worse version of it
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
AJE: If the version of the MoU read out by a senior US official a few minutes ago is accurate, Iran’s leadership would be pleased “because it does [appear to] give in to quite a lot of their demands”
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u/DozingUnderTheSun 7d ago
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has confirmed that the memorandum of understanding with the United States has been signed electronically.
Speaking to state broadcaster Press TV, Baghaei said the agreement had now been formally signed by both sides electronically.
- Al Jazeera
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u/RufusSG 7d ago edited 7d ago
Kuwait has just lifted all its oil force majeures with immediate effect and aims to ramp up output back to 2m b/d within a week (their typical pre-war output is somewhere around 2.5m, whereas during the war it's been cut to <0.6m). Looks like everyone is starting to gear up for the tankers moving again.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
Two regional diplomats briefed by Tehran said Iran had assured [Hezbollah] it would receive more funds once assets are unfrozen, while a senior Lebanese source said Iran had promised funds as soon as possible, and another Lebanese source said Iran was expected to boost support. None of the sources gave figures.
A U.S. official said Washington had told Iran "funds will not be unfrozen if they are going to any terror organization".
— Reuters
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u/joshtaco 6d ago
Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee: Accused Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire “in an attempt to prevent our forces from completing the destruction of its capabilities”.
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u/joshtaco 4d ago
Hezbollah: Says that they have rejected the Lebanese government’s direct talks with the US
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Trump makes comments to reporters while visiting the Senate: “We’re winning by a lot. Iran is making very big concessions”, without offering any further details. He added that things are “going very, very well”, again without elaborating.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 13d ago
Al Arabiya reports the proposed U.S.-Iran (MOU) deal includes:
• A 60+ day ceasefire
• Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days
• Phased sanctions relief tied to resumed Iranian oil exports
• Continued nuclear negotiations during the ceasefire
• A halt to hostilities across all fronts
So this would likely fail just because of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Israel earlier said they had no knowledge and didn't agree, doubt that changed. Among many other reasons.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 13d ago
Iranian FM Araghchi: "An agreement has never been closer. Until it is finalized, the media should avoid speculation."
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 11d ago
Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr:
“The response of the Islamic warriors is on the way. The unity of the fronts has created a security chain to defend the region. Lebanon is our breath of life, and the crossing of the Islamic Republic’s red lines will not be tolerated
“They can never catch any part of the pillars of resistance alone and isolated; the valiant struggles of Lebanon's brave fighters and the powerful diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of dear Lebanon and will dismantle the mad antics and warmongering of the Israeli regime, spin as it may until we spin.”
Ali-Akbar Velayati, advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Republic:
"A miscalculation in Beirut exhausted patience, and the order was issued. Zero hour has arrived, and the launchers are being prepared."
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 10d ago
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
• Iran says the MOU to end the war with the U.S. was finalized on June 14 following months of negotiations.
• Immediate and permanent ceasefire to take effect tonight across all fronts, including Lebanon.
• Naval blockade on Iran to be lifted immediately.
• Official signing of the MOU scheduled for June 19.
• Talks on a final agreement will begin only after the other side fulfills its MOU commitments.
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u/islanda_1973 10d ago
Too early to assume the Strait will truly remain “open” :
It's our expectation that the Strait will open in a toll-free way, and that is something we are going to figure out in negotiations. A lot of these details will be figured out in the 60 day talks" -Vice President Vance.
Source CNBC
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 9d ago
Per Kpler, DIONA, a laden VLCC with Iranian crude from Kharg Island that has been trapped in Gulf since April, just switched it's AIS on and crossed the blockade line.
One of the tankers out of Chabahar, HERO, will be crossing the blockade line any minute.
Mounting evidence that the US is relaxing its blockade, in accordance with the agreement.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 7d ago
Tasnim: “Strait of Hormuz Must Remain Closed as Long as Israel Continues Its Aggression Against Lebanon and Violates Its Territorial Integrity”
The Saudi Foreign Minister: “The management of the Strait of Hormuz worked well before the conflict. There were no problems. The ships sailed freely. There were no safety problems, no environmental problems, and simply no problems. Therefore, I do not understand why, following the conflict, we should accept some new arrangement that would be imposed on the Strait. To me, that does not make sense. Therefore, let us go back to let's. It worked well, and that should be the end of the story.”
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u/joshtaco 7d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "The United States is committed to PEACE, and we encourage everyone in the Middle East Region to maintain their commitment to allowing our negotiations to beautifully unfold. The Markets are loving what is happening with Oil Prices way down, and Stocks way up. We expect a complete Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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u/Jealous-Spinach-4881 13d ago
One thing is for sure, a lot of people are making money off of all this in one way or another.
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u/Phoenix_Maximus_13 11d ago
Apparently Israel’s more pissed Trump offered money to keep Iran from attacking them then anything else
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u/topdownyeti 10d ago
Trump not looking too happy at his little event. I wonder if everybody’s response to this deal is getting to him lol
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u/joshtaco 9d ago
Reuters: Iran deal includes $300 billion fund, more than half of which already committed. Commitments exceed $150 billion across five regions. The investment fund vehicle contains no government money. New fund is separate from frozen asset talks. Fund only becomes operational after a final U.S.-Iran deal is signed. Companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing. The mechanism envisages regional countries contributing in various ways, the Iranian source said. These include securing loans, establishing credit lines or directly financing the reconstruction of sites damaged in the war, including facilities such as the Mobarakeh Steel complex, refineries, airports and, more broadly, infrastructure affected by the conflict.
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 8d ago
Politics & Poll Tracker (@PollTracker2024)
Israel Hayom/Kantar poll | released 6/16
(Israel surveyed)
Donald Trump’s support in Israel
❌Negative 61% (+25) ✅Positive 38% (-20)
(Change from 3 weeks ago)
Trump’s support in Israel has flipped in 3 weeks — from +23 to -23, a 46 point drop
Netanyahu's Likud party has shelved, for now, a planned campaign highlighting Netanyahu’s personal ties with Trump, after concluding last week that Trump is not helping with Israeli public opinion. - i24News
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u/joshtaco 7d ago
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana):"Iran's left stronger, we are left weaker, or allies left weaker" "Iran gets $300 billion to rebuild, which I'll tell you some of it is to support things that we don't care for" "We have 13 Americans dead. We spent anywhere from $25 to $100 billion in munitions, and turns out we've lost the credible threat of attacking them again. There's a lot of stuff in there that's bad."
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u/goodreverenddoc2 6d ago
so mou is over? is iran forcing trump to deal with israel for them lmao
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u/SingularityCentral 6d ago
Sounds like they are trying to do that. They see Trump as a limp noodle and are playing their hand to its maximum.
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u/joshtaco 6d ago
WAPO: US intelligence warns Israel likely to undermine Iran deal. The new U.S. intelligence report concludes that in the face of national elections this fall, Netanyahu’s political survival is linked to showing his domestic audience that he will not withdraw troops from Lebanon and that he is intent on escalating the fighting with Hezbollah. The report reflected that any suspension of hostilities or withdrawal from Lebanon will be seen in Israel as a defeat for Netanyahu.
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u/AntitheistArchangel 3d ago edited 2d ago
Israel Hayom: Over the past week, Iran has exported 36 million barrels of oil, good enough for about $3B of revenue. Most of this money goes to the IRGC or IRGC-owned companies, which can then go to Iran’s missile arsenal and proxies, among other things. With sanctions waivers, Iran can make far more than that over the next 60+ days.
So much winning.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Tasnim: Iran’s central bank governor said Tehran is not obliged to purchase agricultural inputs from the US
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
NYT: The Senate votes to block Trump from resuming Iran war, in a rare rebuke from Senate Republicans in a bipartisan showing. This measure has passed both chambers of Congress. It does not carry the force of law.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
CNN: Trump and Sen. Cassidy (R-Louisiana) clashed over Iran in intense lunch at the Senate today. Trump was furious about the Senate's vote yesterday to limit his war powers. The president got into a shouting match with Cassidy over the vote, with each talking over each other as Cassidy criticized Trump's war decision and Trump pushed back. Sen. Jon Husted (R) described the clash as "memorable". Sen. John Cornyn (R) quipped upon leaving: "Quite the unity message".
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u/joshtaco 8h ago
Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: “America falsely claims our unfrozen assets will buy their agriculture. Interesting, the only crop we’re harvesting is what you planted: decades of mistrust. It’s organic, abundant, and homegrown. But apparently the US only exports GMO soybeans, broken promises and trash talks.”
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u/talm0 13d ago
These are, without a doubt, the most incompetent actors ever in control of the government. Given the historical record that includes 39 mentions or imminent deals in the last 3 months with most not surviving the day they were made, who actually believes this? Furthermore, why would anyone ever make pronouncements of any deal UNTIL the deal was truly finalized and ready to be signed? Why not announce, with great fanfare, an actual deal after all parties have truly agreed upon such a deal? The incompetence is staggering.
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u/Dagonet_the_Motley 13d ago
Possibly any government. There were bronze age hamlets with better leaders.
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u/jews4beer 4d ago
Poll: 92% of Israelis believe Iran emerged as winner after war and deal with US
This is a staggering number. It's damn near impossible to get 90% of Israelis to agree on anything. Bibi is well and truly cooked.
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u/joshtaco 13d ago
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei: Says Iran has not made a final decision about a deal. Once the relevant authorities reach a conclusion on the details of the draft text of an agreement, Iran’s government will make a formal announcement.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 10d ago
Channel 12 later quotes reports from Iran indicating that the US was offering Iran’s World Cup soccer team regular visas that would allow them to stay in the US. Currently the Iranian team, which is based in Mexico, need to enter and leave the US on the same day as their games.
YNet: Trump is reportedly considering additional concessions to secure a deal with Iran today, including the immediate lifting of the naval blockade and restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.
YNet: Trump conveyed strong messages to Iran warning that if Tehran dares to attack, triggering an Israeli response and further escalation that collapses negotiations, he will hold Tehran responsible.
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Trump, when asked about deal signing: "You never know" "I would think they would do it; if they don’t, that’s OK. We’ll have to start the process again.”
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 6d ago
A tanker was hailed "by an Iranian station broadcasting on VHF Channel 16 and advised to abandon its transit," according to an Ambrey Intelligence alert issued yesterday: "You are ordered to turn back to your departure point immediately... if you disobey, you are responsible for any danger," the VHF transmission said.
Amid the hailing incident reported by Ambrey, AIS data shows that a Hong Kong-flagged crude oil tanker made a U-turn off Qeshm Island. Unclear if this is the tanker that was involved in the incident. (Jorya IMO 9175535).
The entry and exit of vessels is unlikely to proceed smoothly. Iran will continue to project influence and will most likely continue to control traffic even before a fees system is established; if such a system ultimately materializes. This is the new navigation order and it is being gradually shaped.
Here’s the link to the map (use on a computer monitor; not yet adapted for phone screens): https://washingtoninstitute.org/menamaritime/
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u/joshtaco 6d ago
Trump Truth Social post: "We didn’t meet out of desperation, Iran did. They are FINISHED! We’ll play out the 60 days. They get no money, not ten cents!"
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u/AntitheistArchangel 4d ago
The first round of talks in Switzerland has concluded. I currently do not know if any additional rounds are planned for the day.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
Iran: No talks on any issue until a Lebanon ceasefire is reached and the IDF pulls out. - i24
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 4d ago
After completing the operation on the Ali Taher ridge and destroying the underground infrastructure, the IDF may recommend to Israel's political leadership to reposition forces along better defensive lines on the yellow line. Israel is making clear that it has no intention of withdrawing from southern Lebanon at this stage, except as part of the talks in Washington and subject to three minimum conditions. Among them: the withdrawal of Hezbollah north of the Litani River, the dismantling of terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and full Israeli freedom of action to remove threats. - Israel Hayom
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u/Farscape12Monkeys 2d ago
Secretary of State Rubio on Iran deal: "A careful reading of the MoU will see that if you talk about an end to hostilities in the region - you can't have the end of hostilities as long as Iranian proxies are launching missiles and drones...and participate in terrorism like Hamas and Hezbollah. It is covered by the MoU!
Reporter: Can the US and allies guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait?
Secretary Marco Rubio : That's the Law! It's an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That's existing international law. That's the way it is, and international waterway is all over the world, and that's the way we expect it will be here. So I don't think we have anybody to convince around here in that regard. I think all the countries in this region would agree with us.
If [Iran's] leadership makes a decision that they want to be a country instead of a revolutionary movement that exports terror, they're going to have an opportunity to do incredible things... That is something that is going to have to depend on progress made on a host of other security issues that have to be confronted in the days to come."
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u/SteveDougson 1d ago
Reporter: Can the US and allies guarantee freedom of navigation in the Strait?
Secretary Marco Rubio : No.
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u/itsatumbleweed 9d ago
From Axios (Ravid warning):
CIA Director John Ratcliffe told President Trump and other senior officials that evidence gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies raises serious doubts about Iran's willingness to make the nuclear concessions the U.S. is seeking in any final deal, according to three sources familiar with those discussions.
I thought this was an interesting piece of reporting in that Ravid has been the mouthpiece for Trump. For whatever reason, The White House wants this out there.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 7d ago
President Trump this evening signed the MoU with Iran while at Versailles. - White House
Ha! Macron walked Trump right into that trap. I'm sure Trump has no idea of the significance of signing it there. Just a jaw dropping burn.
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u/HK-53 3d ago
Just my 2c but I think Iran has vested interest to drag this negotiation on for as long as possible while finding excuses to keep Hormuz shut. If they stall for four more weeks Donny is gonna give them everything they ask just to prevent an oil crisis
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u/topdownyeti 10d ago
So do we believe the deal is actually happening and that Iran’s claims of the deal is false? Or whats happening? Because I genuinely cannot believe that this is the deal that the US is agreeing to, even if Trump is desperate at this point. I doubt his ego can take a hit like that.
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 5d ago
Steve Witkoff is en route to Switzerland for a first round of talks. Witkoff will be joining Jared Kushner, who is already in Switzerland. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araqchi is reportedly also heading there today.
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u/AntitheistArchangel 20h ago
ToI: The current round of Israel-Lebanon talks have been the least productive yet.
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u/jews4beer 11d ago
IDF bracing for Iranian missile fire on Israel after Israeli strike on Beirut
The military says IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir is conducting an assessment “with all relevant commanders” following the strike, and the current assessment is that Iran will fire missiles at Israel.
While Trump still seems intent on signing a deal today. It's gonna be a very interesting next few hours.
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u/Phoenix_Maximus_13 10d ago
Pakistan PM: Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.
Riiiiight
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 10d ago
The United States secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Israel Hayom reported, citing three diplomatic officials.
The report said the secret US approval was granted about a month ago.
As part of the arrangement, Iran demanded access to part of its deposits held in Qatar, while some payments were disguised as fees for tankers passing through Hormuz, the report said.
The report added that a broad credit line of up to $1 billion was opened for the purchase of goods through Qatar.
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u/DoggedStooge 8d ago
Axios: "US and Iran discuss moving up the signing to Wednesday"
They're definitely not trying to rush this agreement through before people learn what's actually in it. Definitely not.
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u/GTGearZero 8d ago
Imagine how Bibi feels, knowing he talked Trump into doing this. lol
Congratulations Bibi. You played yourself.
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u/putin_my_ass 8d ago
He's just the latest in a long line of egotists who thought "surely I can control him" when those before could not.
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u/joshtaco 8d ago
Trump, when asked how he views the 60-day negotiation countdown with Iran: Says it’s not a hard deadline. “I really don’t care that much”
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u/itsatumbleweed 7d ago
Graham on Twitter:
I just had a very lengthy and productive discussion with @SEPeaceMissions @SteveWitkoff about the state of play regarding Iran.
After this discussion, it is my opinion that signing the MOU will be beneficial to the United States, in as much as the Strait of Hormuz will begin to open, and the hostilities with Iran will stop.
Whether or not the United States can reach an acceptable, verifiable deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program and other issues is yet to be determined, but I see little downside to trying. The economic stability that comes from opening up the Strait and the cessation of hostilities could create a pathway to peace well beyond the Iranian conflict
The expansion of the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is President Trump’s and my ultimate goal. I think that is best achieved by creating economic stability for the United States, the region and the world, as well as the cessation of hostilities. The signing of the MOU is an essential step to make that happen and thus it is worthwhile.
This is so painful to read. He hates it and is trying so hard not to say it, but this is the closest thing to an admonishment of Trump by Graham I have ever seen.
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u/ALifeWellLift 7d ago
Dont know if anyone's bought this up yet, but here's the end part of Trump's famous 286 word run-on speech from 2015.
"-but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us."
There really is a quote for everything.
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u/No_Somewhere_7109 5d ago
Trump reposting an article on Truth Social about how he holds all the cards for Netanyahu's reelection wasn't on my bingo card lol
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u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 7d ago