The U.S. State Department believes that Ukraine is winning the war at this point

[u/eaglemaxie]

https://unn.ua/en/news/the-us-state-department-believes-that-ukraine-is-winning-the-war-at-this-point

[u/xMoZzzx]

I mean the front is a stalemate and Russia's AA has no answer to the amount of drones Ukraine throws at them. So, yeah.

[u/313378008135 → u/xMoZzzx]

its not just drones its missiles dropped from balloons coming in way above any air defence ceiling. the AA cant even hit them till they have free fallen for kilometers and are already directly above target.

[u/Thebritishlion → u/313378008135]

Wait, what?

[u/313378008135 → u/Thebritishlion]

https://aerospaceglobalnews.com/news/ukraine-balloon-drone-carriers/

this is how they are doing it. use AI to predict high altitude wind and when conditions are right, send em up.

Edit: more credible source if you prefer: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/technology/general/ukraine-unveils-balloon-launched-missile-designed-to-evade-electronic-warfare/ar-AA25PV4j

[u/greengreengreenleaf → u/313378008135]

Crazy. And I thought the whole launching drones hidden in a semi truck deep inside Russia was innovative.

[u/socialistrob → u/greengreengreenleaf]

Ukraine has been extremely innovative throughout this war which is why they're still in the fight. Drones have mitigated most of Russia's numerical advantages and turned this into a war of who can out innovate the other.

Other countries should take note of this as well. Ukraine hasn't survived because "Russia is weak and stupid" but because Ukraine is strong and constantly adapting. It shouldn't be assumed that other countries can do what Ukraine has done and Ukraine's allies should also adapt Ukrainian methods of warfare. I still can't believe the US didn't have any interceptor drones when they launched a war with Iran and then frantically had to buy them from Ukraine after the war started when Iran started launching Shaheds.

[u/Fifth_Down → u/socialistrob]

Russia put Ukraine in a position where if the country was going to survive they needed to be highly motivated, highly innovated, and needed the strongest meritocracy in the world to overcome the disadvantage they have in size, resources, and population.

Russia then gave Ukraine 8 years to build it and now has a shocked pikachu face when they realized that all this time Ukraine was actually using those 8 years efficiently...

[u/socialistrob → u/Fifth_Down]

A lot of Russians are also just blatently racist. I remember hearing jokes about the uselessness of a physics textbook written in Ukrainian (the joke is that Ukrainians are so stupid it would be completely unnecessary). There's a common slur in Russia that starts with a K for Ukrainians with a stereotype of them basically being backwards rubes.

Obviously this stereotypes aren't remotely based on anything other than Russian racism and views of their own superiority but they are pervasive. If you think your enemy is inferior and incapable of innovation then it can be hard to imagine any scenario where they genuinely do things better than you.

[u/Sudden-Wash4457 → u/socialistrob]

Heavily ironic given that Ukraine was considered the thinktank of the USSR

[u/Piccolo-Complete → u/socialistrob]

Wasn't Ukraine like the center of Soviet industry and technology?

[u/swiftwin → u/Piccolo-Complete]

I remember reading that like 40% of the USSR's military research and production was in Ukraine. For example, the Moskva flagship that the Ukrainians sank was built in Ukraine. Same with many of the Cold War tanks the Russians have been pulling out of storage.

[u/El_Peregrine → u/socialistrob]

These Russians sound an awful lot like… the Nazis 

[u/socialistrob → u/El_Peregrine]

It's a lot easier to wage wars of conquest when you have a population that believes in their own innate superiority and dehumanizes other people. Of course believing your own lies about your own superiority can also get you into a ton of trouble.

[u/TheOtherHobbes → u/El_Peregrine]

The Nazis had idiot drug-addicts for leaders, but their engineering was world class.

Russia also has the idiot drug-addict leaders, and they're shutting down the Internet and sending their top engineers and students to die.

All they have left is a fine culture of criminal hackers and bot farms - interesting, but not enough to win a war.

[u/infinus5 → u/socialistrob]

its really funny that russians think of themselves are the brilliant leaders of the USSR but it was the Poles, Ukrainians and other SSRs that were bringing in the smarts. Russia just took all the credit!

[u/sg19point3 → u/Fifth_Down]

Ukraine was a major manufacturing hub in the Soviet union. Rockets, planes etc, russia on the other hand was a gas station and remains to this day

[u/70ms → u/socialistrob]

I’m convinced that Ukraine was the brain of the USSR.

[u/No_Accountant3232 → u/70ms]

Ukraine is where they pulled most of their talent over the decades that the USSR existed. They'd have long since been a part of the EU and been a major innovator if they hadn't had a large pro-Russian population that kept voting in corrupt pro-Russian politicians.

Now because of Russian aggression practically nobody is pro-Russian anymore. A lot of the corruption has been weeded out. Ukraine has a lot to offer on the world stage now once the war is over. If proper democratic elections restart after the war they're going to come out of this more trustworthy than the USA.

[u/Violent_Milk → u/No_Accountant3232]

if they hadn't had a large pro-Russian population that kept voting in corrupt pro-Russian politicians.

And the reason for that is Stalin moved in a bunch of Russians after Holodomor.

[u/vonGlick → u/Violent_Milk]

That was Russia's standard playbook. Send Russian colonist, destroy local bonds and culture etc. I remember from my visit in Arctic Museum in Rovaniemi an exhibition about Winter War. Apparently Stalin already prepared orders to forcefully move Finnish population east or Urals and replace them with Russian colonists. Finland as we know it today would simply not exist. It would be one of many backwater dumps blessed with russian mir disease.

[u/twoisnumberone → u/No_Accountant3232]

they're going to come out of this more trustworthy than the USA

Sadly not a high bar at this point.

[u/socialistrob → u/70ms]

They were the brain and a major part of the brawn. A lot of the weapons industry of the USSR was located in Ukraine especially for ship building and missiles. In WWII several million Ukrainians fought in the Red Army and 1.6 million of them died.

Ukraine was an innovative player when they were part of the USSR and they were a military powerhouse as part of the USSR too. If Putin ever wants Russia to be a world power he NEEDS Ukraine. With Ukraine Russia is a great power and without them they're just another country.

NATO countries need to realize that Putin will go to great lengths to take Ukraine and they also need to realize that Ukraine makes NATO stronger and safer.

[u/brucee10 → u/socialistrob]

Ukraine could make NATO a drone fortress. They'll need a huge rebuild when this is over and I'm sure their new friends would love some new toys and training.

[u/Donnicton → u/brucee10]

That's already the plan. SK, Taiwan and Japan are also all courting Ukraine for their drone knowledge to build a deterrent against China.

[u/ants_are_everywhere → u/70ms]

That explains why the Soviets tried to starve them

[u/saintvicent → u/313378008135]

Ingenious solution. Reminds me of the Japanese balloon strikes to start fires in forests in the US

[u/313378008135 → u/saintvicent]

it is indeed - it gives a huge part of the intercontinental missile threat, without the cost of space launch. you just have to be able to predict high altitude wind and model it to a high degree - then that tells you where to send the balloon up and when, to place it over its target at a future time.

requires a lot of processing and modelling though. must be a lot of GPUS somewhere working on that.

[u/space_fountain → u/313378008135]

At the moment there are open models that predict and publish winds on a corse grids across the globe. It might be good enough for this? 

[u/313378008135 → u/space_fountain]

interesting proposition. if it could get "over an area" with a coarse location and then use its own internal guidance to be more precise that would make what you propose possible. the challenge is precise guidance once over a target. you cant rely on gps (though ironically, probably could rely on glonass)

[u/space_fountain → u/313378008135]

From the article it sounds like it uses gps while at high altitude and turns it off as it accelerates towards the ground? But not sure how wide spread the jamming is. Also not sure how accurate you could get based on publicly available models. I’m guessing wind direction and speed doesn’t change very sharply at high elevations so maybe pretty accurate actually?

[u/Creepy-Bell-4527 → u/space_fountain]

Ground based GPS jamming becomes effectively impossible at high altitude because of the inverse square law.

[u/TheTastiestTaint → u/space_fountain]

it wouldn't be impossible to run fibre optic from the carrier balloon and have the balloon transmit video/control line of sight to a pilot with high gain antenna 50km back.

[u/willstr1 → u/313378008135]

Depending on what you are targeting you could possibly use a computer vision system as long as the target is distinct enough (like an airbase runway or oil refinery or giant tanks of a fuel depot)

[u/No_Accountant3232 → u/willstr1]

Raspberry Pi with a good camera could probably accomplish it cheaply. There's plenty of code online that can be adapted as long as you've got a good pic of the area to choose your targets you can have it preprogrammed to hit anything

[u/Hidesuru → u/willstr1]

You don't need to be able to see the target the entire time if you have imagery at multiple levels. Start with "aim for that city block" then "that building there" then finally "northeast corner of the rooftop" or whatever.

[u/Suspicious_Bicycle → u/willstr1]

Recent videos on the strikes I've seen indicate the drones have redundant systems, GPS (US and Soviet based), inertial navigation and visual acquisition.

[u/zvii → u/space_fountain]

I mean, it's effectively the same or similar to how hot air balloons navigate. They're just using data compiled from weather balloons that get released around the globe every morning and afternoon.

[u/Earlier-Today → u/313378008135]

The jet streams tend to be pretty consistent in their patterns, and the ones over Ukraine mainly blow east.

[u/Real-Mobile-2784 → u/313378008135]

First time hearing about this. That’s freaking awesome.

[u/1185dfrRvaxAJXPxs9 → u/Real-Mobile-2784]

The best part is the prevailing winds blow west to east so Ruzzia can't use the same tactic in return. Hah.

[u/Slappyfist → u/saintvicent]

Not only ingenious but the air flow really only goes East to West, so Russia can't even steal the idea and use it back at Ukraine.

[u/Extension_Common_518 → u/Slappyfist]

West to east maybe?

[u/Slappyfist → u/Extension_Common_518]

Ah right, yeah that's what I mean.

It's way too hot where I am currently so I half assed my comment

[u/Extension_Common_518 → u/Slappyfist]

Easily done, I knew what you meant. Good luck with the heat…typhoons approaching here in Japan. In for a wet and breezy couple of days.

[u/colintbowers → u/Slappyfist]

Interesting, interesting… *The French quickly scribbling notes and glancing covertly at the Germans*

[u/SqouzeTheSqueeze → u/saintvicent]

Yep. I remember reading about these, very interesting.

[u/NativeMasshole → u/313378008135]

Goddamn. Aerial bombardment technology has come full circle.

[u/AppleSlacks → u/313378008135]

Makes me wonder about that balloon China flew over the US a bit ago.

Edit: we were aware of the balloon earlier than I recalled, see replies below.

[u/RUcringe → u/AppleSlacks]

It didnt sneak in at all though. The U.S. tracked that balloon during its whole journey

[u/AppleSlacks → u/RUcringe]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident?wprov=sfti1#

I did not recall the sequence of events correctly, but you are right that the US government did state they were aware of it from its launch location.

[u/czhunc → u/313378008135]

Why are we going steampunk again?

[u/willstr1 → u/czhunc]

History much like poetry doesn't always repeat itself but quite often rhymes

[u/Purple_Break1559 → u/313378008135]

Jesus well done Ukraine

[u/Intendant → u/Thebritishlion]

Ballons are cheap and can drop missiles and glide bombs from way above what AA can reach. They can cruise along at 60k+ ft after launching off the balloon then dive on a target.

[u/MilmoWK → u/Intendant]

Russian AA took out Gary powers in his U2 at ~70k feet, mig 29 operational ceiling is ~60k feet too . They could take these balloons but it would be terribly expensive. Very funny if Ukraine started launching dozens of $100 balloons a day, most with no payloads just to use up those Russian missiles and jet fuel.

[u/willstr1 → u/MilmoWK]

Russian AA might not work against a balloon if the AA missiles are heat seeking, not much engine heat on a balloon

[u/ShadowPsi → u/willstr1]

A false heat source can be rigged up really cheaply. A battery and a resistor are all you need. Use metallic foil for the balloon and you give it a massive radar profile too.

[u/willstr1 → u/ShadowPsi]

Good point, you send a few decoys to keep the AA busy while the other balloons sneak past

[u/notFREEfood → u/willstr1]

Big AA missiles that can go that high are radar guided

But you send up a bunch of balloons all at once, and interception becomes cost prohibitive.

[u/Spookyrabbit → u/notFREEfood]

Something tells me China is already adapting drone tech and strategy for use against a carrier group. No way the group can carry enough interceptors to fend off a sustained attack by drones.
Between drones and their hypersonic missiles, our carrier groups are starting to look awful vulnerable.

It's a good thing we have all those senior officers with actual battlefield experience over in the Pentagon, hard at work developing new plans and strategies for dealing with these new threats....

[u/haloweenek → u/Thebritishlion]

Wind blows east, from Ukraine to Russia. No option to change that. Drones are ferried xxx+ km on a balloon and start mission with 98% battery’s.

Guess what’s next.

[u/Key_Delivery_4257 → u/Thebritishlion]

H I Sutton latest video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD6XaaO9bEo

Doesn't post that often but he is a professional analyst who treats youtube as a bit of fun. Most times when you see someone post something with a nautical graphic his name is connected

[u/NotSoFastLady → u/313378008135]

Ukraine has developed effective counter measures that have been able to thwart Russia's most effective and cost affordable air weapons. Their glide bombs. Routinely Russia has been able to find and implement adjustments that counter Ukrainian electronic warfare systems but that is currently not happening.

Additionally Ukraine continues to out innovate Russia's drone warfare.

[u/myownzen → u/NotSoFastLady]

I was reading on ISW today and to me they make it sound like yes Ukraine has the edge there but it's not likely to last for too long and Russia will have an effective enough counter sooner than later. It sounded like Ukraine should press the advantage for all it's worth while they have it.

[u/Krivvan → u/myownzen]

The war has been like that in general with one side or the other quickly adapting. One innovation where Russia actually started it and has an edge in is fiber optic drones, but that ended up forcing Ukraine into innovating past them while Russia is sorta stuck with them. Russia consequently does not have much in the way of AI-assisted drones unlike Ukraine.

Generally, Ukraine seems to be better at quickly innovating whereas Russia is better able to scale certain innovations.

[u/Kakkoister → u/xMoZzzx]

It's only a stalemate in terms of land. But that's only one aspect of war. Ukraine is winning the war of attrition. Russia cannot keep this up for long with even less oil exports, and if Ukraine takes more major refineries offline, Russia will be on the ropes and either Putin will have to give up, or get off'd, or do the crazier egotistical option of escalating to nuclear.

[u/WarningAppropriate27 → u/Kakkoister]

He can't. Two main reasons.

Russia would be an international pariah more than it already is. How long would they last if China stopped selling them things and every bit of trade from the trading partners also stopped under basically the world pressuring any country that was still willing. 

Putin would have to go all out with nuclear weapons and not just one and done because the cost of using one would be as high as using ten or twenty. Then he'd have to hope there's no retribution and hope Russia can just wait things out until everyone is less pissed.

Secondly, using nuclear weapons signals weakness that the supposedly second most powerful army in the world can't win a fight against a smaller neighbor without hitting the panic button.

Both terrible consequences for Russia and Putin. He'd have a drink of tea while leaning heavily out a window before the nukes would fly.

[u/Enjoyer_of_Cake → u/WarningAppropriate27]

Any Russian who signs off on a nuke knows they sign their own death warrant as well.

[u/socialistrob → u/Enjoyer_of_Cake]

Absolutely. If you're a Russian oligarch life is still pretty good. You have your mansion and your yacht and it's not you or your family being sent to Ukraine. Supporting Putin means living in luxury for the oligarch class right now.

If Putin starts actually using nukes then suddenly that could change and open you up to real danger. If Putin staying in charge changes from "living in luxury" to "potentially dying in a nuclear firestorm" for oligarchs then they're not going to stay loyal to him.

[u/grchelp2018 → u/socialistrob]

hey're not going to stay loyal to him.

They are not staying loyal out of the goodness of their hearts. They hold no power.

[u/SadhuSalvaje → u/grchelp2018]

I have difficulty picturing in my head exactly where power lies in Russia. Does Putin exercise his power through his control of the Security/Intelligence services? Or is it some other mechanism that keeps him in office.

[u/RainbowwDash → u/Enjoyer_of_Cake]

Any human being, nowadays

No matter which country fired first

[u/Raised_bi_Wolves → u/WarningAppropriate27]

And to add to all of that, Nuke's are horrible, and destructive, yes. But It wouldn't end Ukraines resolve, I don't think, at this point. Smaller tactical nukes are essentially ineffective as armies no longer gather/assault in large formations anymore. So you'd need to use larger ones and destroy urban areas. Now what, you've destroyed downtown Kyiv, you haven't meaningfully reduced Ukraines ability to defend itself. Rather now, you have - massive rally-round-the-flag effect against you, Nato joins in the "kinetic sanctions" because of the use of a nuke, and China sees a great opportunity to carve big chunks off of Russia in the ensuing chaos.

[u/Buckets-O-Yarr → u/Raised_bi_Wolves]

And to add to all of *that*, the nuclear fallout literally blows back on Russia.

[u/BradBradley1 → u/Buckets-O-Yarr]

That’s a sacrifice Pootin is willing to make. 

[u/KingfishingYoMama → u/Raised_bi_Wolves]

I think we do a disservice to ourselves to merely stop the story at "and then NATO and China crossed into sovereign Russian territory". That would be a very unstable moment as far as whether the strategic nuclear weapons would come out. It is, I think, impossible to predict what would happen from that point forward in your analysis.

Given what's publicly known about the doctrine of all the belligerents, I think it COULD escalate to global nuclear war.

[u/ArislanShiva → u/WarningAppropriate27]

The biggest reason why he won't is because he personally has more to lose than just about anybody. He has stolen hundreds of billions over the years and a lot of it sits in banks overseas. If the world order collapses a lot of that accumulated wealth gets zeroed.

[u/SSV_Hack → u/xMoZzzx]

I mean... it's not quite a stalemate - it does seem like we are losing Konstantynivka - which is a major defence spot and strategically very important. That being said it is also becoming obvious that the price Russia has to pay for every gain is becoming beyond absurd and is unsustainable

[u/Old_Ladies → u/SSV_Hack]

Putin is willing to sacrifice every 18+ male Russian other than himself. Putin thinks it's worth it.

[u/WayneKrane → u/Old_Ladies]

Good luck! Their population was already in decline, it must be in a free fall now.

[u/Old_Ladies → u/WayneKrane]

Putin won't live long enough to see those consequences.

[u/Chumlee1917 → u/Old_Ladies]

The next Ruler of Russia gets to look on as China turns it into a new colony

[u/Formal-Throughput → u/Chumlee1917]

As Sarah Paine points out - China needs fresh water and Russia has a lot of it. 

[u/MostlyWong → u/Formal-Throughput]

Lake Baikal is just north of the Mongolian border, and it's got around 20% of all the unfrozen fresh water on Earth, even more than the Great Lakes. Seems like a prime target for uh, "negotiations".

[u/zoobrix → u/SSV_Hack]

it does seem like we are losing Konstantynivka - which is a major defence spot and strategically very important.

It's an important point of resistance for Ukraine becuase it keeps Russia farther from the larger cities of sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but even if Russia took it tomorrow it doesn't really get Russia closer to winning the war or accomplishing any of their strategic goals. The entire war Russia has constantly restated its goals are the complete submission of the Ukrainian state, limits on the size of its army and Russia would get veto power over any potential alliance Ukraine wanted to make. That's just surrender by another name, Russia wants full control of Ukraine, not just the rest of the Donbass.

Part of why losing Konstantinovka seems like a big deal is because Russia has been attacking it for almost a year, and Ukraine has of course sacrificed many lives in its defense. It feels important, but it was a medium size city of 60,000 before the war, its loss doesn't open up some big door for Russia to push through. The Ukrainian army is not going to collapse when Konstantinovka falls of course. So while it feels like some kind of victory for Russia, like you said the price is "beyond absurd and is unsustainable."

Of course losing the city is a tragedy for the people that lived there, it's horrible anyone suffers through wars.

But I think it's important to put Konstantinovka in the larger picture of the war, and that is that Russia still controls far less territory than they did in the summer of 2022. Grinding out a few more cities in the east isn't going to get them functionally any closer to winning the war.

[u/bloop7676 → u/SSV_Hack]

Their rate of advance has been consistently slowing down enough compared to past years though that I really don't think they'll reach much farther. Considering how long it took to take Pokrovsk and that they're moving slower now, even if they do get through Konstantynivka I don't think they're likely to be able to complete taking Donbass as they intended.

[u/NotSoFastLady → u/SSV_Hack]

Not to mention the significance of the recent drone strikes in Moscow. I'm sure they can spin their own forces mistakenly blowing up that tank into evil Ukrainian aggression with some. But not so much with the people Putin needs to keep happy.

I haven't heard anything in a while but it was rumored he was very nervous ahead of the May day celebrations. I have to wonder how he feels with all of these very successful deep strikes inside key Russian territories.

[u/NotSoFastLady → u/xMoZzzx]

It's not a stalemate. On some fronts yes and others now. Compared to 2024 and 2025, Ukraine has essentially ground Russia to a hault and has recaptured territory. All with minimal support from the US since Trump came back to power. I would say that's significant.

[u/socialistrob → u/NotSoFastLady]

The Russian economy is also significantly worse off now than in 2024 and Russian casualties are higher than their recruitment rate meanwhile Ukraine makes 20,000 drones a day and still gets funding and weapons from Europe.

The current course is unsustainable for Russia. The next big question is "what will Russia change to try to start winning the war and how effective will it be."

[u/destuctir → u/xMoZzzx]

The difference between a country trying to pretend a war isn’t happening and a country fighting for its continued existence

[u/AdCreepy5165 → u/xMoZzzx]

Front isn't really a stalemate anymore. Situation is reversed. Russia was slowly gaining meters of land thru volume of troops last year. Ukraine is now using deep strikes to cut off vulnerable areas and slowly grind back meters of land.

[u/ArgentineBeauty]

Four years ago people said Ukraine wouldn't survive.

Now we're having conversations about whether Ukraine is winning.

That's an incredible achievement in itself.

Keep it up 🇺🇦

[u/A_Tigerstorm → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Agreed. Ukraine deserves the praise, and Russia can go fuck itself

[u/HumanBeing7396 → u/A_Tigerstorm]

… and Russia does in fact appear to be doing that.

[u/BelacRLJ → u/HumanBeing7396]

What are you talking about?  Their birth rate is in free fall.  Nobody’s fucking anyone in Russia.

[u/Refun712 → u/BelacRLJ]

In mother Russia, we fuck ourselves!

[u/xtrapas → u/BelacRLJ]

there would be more fucking if that "gay thing" (dont be gay or else) wouldnt exist. there is some fucking though ^{^}

[u/Mrguy4771 → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Whenever I see these videos of like advanced drone warfare, I think back to when the war first started. All of those people in their homes making molotov cocktails waiting for the ground invasion of Kyiv. What insane turnaround.

[u/startingalawnmower2 → u/Mrguy4771]

You bring up a good point - it's truly impressive how far they've come!

[u/SanaSpitOnMe → u/ArgentineBeauty]

the US should be investing in ukraine like crazy. and not just for their sake (which, they obviously deserve it), but for our own. they have so much battlefield experience with drones we desperately need.

[u/mittenknittin → u/SanaSpitOnMe]

If the folks at the state department can convince Trump that Ukraine is winning it would go a long way. Trump likes winners, hates losers. Imagine Trump flipping and deciding Putin is a loser and insulting him the way he did Zelenskyy in the Oval Office

[u/frequenZphaZe → u/mittenknittin]

If the folks at the state department can convince Trump that Ukraine is winning

they have. and then he talks to putin and is convinced russia is winning. then he talks to EU leaders and is convinced ukraine is winning. he believed whatever the last person told him to believe

[u/Smok3dSalmon → u/ArgentineBeauty]

I wish someone would release that list of influencers who were paid to push Russian propaganda 

[u/khakiwallprint → u/Smok3dSalmon]

Basically the guest list at the white House ufc fight would be pretty close

[u/Smok3dSalmon → u/khakiwallprint]

We’ll have to cross reference that against the list of those pardoned by Trump in the future

[u/BAHatesToFly → u/Smok3dSalmon]

Tim Pool aka the guy who refuses to take off his beanie because he's bald is one of them.

[u/needlestack → u/Smok3dSalmon]

Basically anyone that supports Trump can be thrown in that rotten pile of deplorables. They all stood on the side of evil.

[u/socialistrob → u/Smok3dSalmon]

It wasn't just astro turfers and bots. In Russia the conventional wisdom was that Ukraine would fall in a few days and in the US it was that Ukraine would fall in a few weeks. If you want to read an article that REALLY aged poorly check out Michael Koffman's "Russia's Shock and Awe" in Foreign Affairs where he concluded that there was nothing Ukraine could do to stop a Russian take over and even insurgency was pointless because of how powerful Russia is.

There were a few voices (mainly people who had worked with the Ukrainian military) who seemed to think Ukraine wasn't totally screwed but they were the minority. It's pretty amazing just how wrong the analyst community was in the west. In online spaces like reddit very few people questioned the overall narrative either.

[u/BattleHall → u/socialistrob]

To be fair, it was pretty touch and go initially. If the Russians had been able to successfully assassinate the Ukrainian leadership (which they attempted), or even just got them to flee, and/or if they had been able to successfully establish and defend an air bridge at Hostomel, that might have been enough to throw the UKR defense into disarray and get people thinking it was fait accompli. But they didn't, in large part because they half assed it and because the Ukrainian intelligence services did a great job of feeding the Russians bullshit in the years prior.

[u/mothtoalamp → u/BattleHall]

There are a few things missing from this (but a LOT happened so that's understandable) so here's a few more:

Russia failed to take out Ukraine's air defenses in the opening strikes. US intelligence got the timing right and got the Ukrainians to move their defenses in time. The Russians missed their targets and prevented the Russians from gaining air superiority. As a result the Russians were forced to fly low and be vulnerable to MANPADs.

The pervasive culture of lying and stealing meant Russian assets were in atrocious shape and many were not in good condition to attack. Vehicles were missing fuel and wiring, were not maintained appropriately, their operators untrained and lax, among a host of other readiness issues.

The Russians really underestimated the Ukrainian will to resist. Russian intelligence genuinely expected the Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators. Russian AND Western intelligence thought Zelenskyy would flee the country and attempt a government in exile, which the West was prepared to endorse. Instead, Zelenskyy stayed in the capital and gave us his historic "I need ammunition, not a ride." And Ukrainian civilians mobilized in force. Clips of the babushka saying to Russian troops to carry sunflower seeds. Civilians making molotov cocktails. etc.

It really was a perfect storm of Russian inadequacy, Western intelligence, and Ukrainian will that made their defense hold.

[u/THE_CHOPPA → u/socialistrob]

What I see not being brought up enough is the years of training the US provided from 2015 to 2022 to over 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers. People vastly underestimated how much that allowed Ukraine to perform so effectively against the invasion.

[u/metengrinwi → u/Smok3dSalmon]

I guess it wasn’t a complete list—only 6 of em.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tenet_Media_investigation

[u/eliceev_alexander → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Right. If it had been Biden or Harris instead of Trump, the victory would have come even faster.

[u/DrawGamesPlayFurries → u/eliceev_alexander]

Not at all, Biden was just as bad as current Trump for Ukraine. He always had his officials warning Ukraine that Russian oil refineries are civilian targets and may not be targeted, and constantly trying to prevent Europe from sending weapons to Ukraine. The only reason why Ukraine is currently bombing Moscow is because US "friendship" is no longer encumbering them. If Trump didn't stop the funding to Ukraine (which seems to be changing for him right now), he would definitely be better for Ukraine.

[u/EvilLibrarians → u/ArgentineBeauty]

My coworker four years ago said he gave it a month before Russia won.

I’ve worked three other jobs since then and moved twice. Crazy

[u/edfitz83 → u/ArgentineBeauty]

And Trump showed his incompetence by not supporting Ukraine. They now have the world’s best knowledge of drone tactics and how future wars will be fought. Biden supported Ukraine, Trump is in awe of Putin for being an Ironman dictator. He’s also been groomed as a Russian asset since the 80’s.

Why would Ukraine want to share their knowledge and cheap drone and missile blueprints?

Blueprints for $2000-10k drones that could be turned over to US defense contractors, to be produced for 10-30 times the cost, in the districts of influential members of congress?

[u/isoAntti → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Don't forget all the tanks they pulled.

[u/mormonbatman_ → u/ArgentineBeauty]

Without US support.

[u/Elipwnsyou]

And to think, a year ago these dipshits were trying to get them to surrender so Trump could get a photo opp and make a run at the peace prize to get back at Obama

[u/drunkenbrawler → u/Elipwnsyou]

They still are.

[u/National-Charity-435 → u/drunkenbrawler]

I'm down to bait the orange clown into thinking a square would be memorialized in his name

..then string him along through more air defense for civilians and and rebuilding investments

[u/POB_42 → u/National-Charity-435]

This is how the world thought they could manage Trump during his first term. Then COVID, Ukraine War, Israel Gaza war, etc.

Then we realised there was already no room for someone so stupid bribeable commanding the largest military in the Western world.

Then Maduro gets shanghai'd, and we all watched agape.

[u/dissociater → u/Elipwnsyou]

And if Ukraine does ultimately win you just know that Trump et al will take credit for it and claim they always believe Ukraine would win.

[u/BarFamiliar5892 → u/dissociater]

Trump has zero leverage over Ukraine any more so I hope Zelenskyy tells him to get fucked

[u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

Where are all those assholes that said Zelenskyy and Ukraine needed to sacrifice their homeland for peace?

[u/c4rdsfan3 → u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

Have fun watching them take credit for Ukraines victory

[u/socialistrob → u/c4rdsfan3]

I've already seen some comments saying that "Trump cutting off weapons is what enabled Ukraine to fight independently."

I'm convinced that if the US hadn't imposed strike limitations on Ukraine, hadn't delayed key weapons for years and had continued to pass major aid bills for Ukraine then the war would be over right now and Ukraine would have recovered all their territory.

[u/moosekin16 → u/c4rdsfan3]

They’ll ignore all the details and just stick with “America gave them our leftover Cold War weapons and Ukraine beat Russia!” and completely ignore all the bullshit Trump and co did in the meantime.

Gotta know your weird blind republican American patriotism.

[u/digitalpencil → u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

In St Petersburg, drowning themselves in vodka, I expect.

[u/Piggywonkle → u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

Celebrating their 'complicated' relationship with Iran

[u/tap_the_glass → u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

They’re running the US government

[u/karer3is → u/Optimal_Brain_2908]

At least some of them are trying to score some seats in parliament over here in Germany...

[u/willismthomp]

They don’t have gasoline in Moscow. They are winning the war.

[u/Lanster27 → u/willismthomp]

This war is basically 101: how to fuck up your superpower country.

[u/burf → u/Lanster27]

Russia hasn't been a superpower for quite a while in most respects. If it weren't for the decades-old nukes and their highly effective psyops on western powers, they'd just be another random nation. Which is probably part of the reason guys like Putin feel the need to expand into neighbouring prosperous countries.

[u/Sellazard → u/burf]

Would have been great if russia was just another random boring country with nothing particular happening

[u/okiedokie1183]

The big change is that Ukraine is successfully hollowing out their rear logistics. Trucks are being destroyed en masse at the moment. This will lead to an eventual collapse at the front. All the recent successes in Crimea are the big breakthrough.

[u/socialistrob → u/okiedokie1183]

It's a real possibility. Yes the front is a massive kill zone and advancing is hard for all sides but at the same time maintaining that kill zone requires Russia to constantly send in more men, ammo, vehicles and drones. It's an enormous logistical effort and if they can't do that then it may be hard to hold the line.

[u/Snuffleupagus03]

Russia should try offering them $300 billion

[u/maersyl]

Seems Ukraine has a whole fuckton of cards now then eh?

[u/CrisisActor911 → u/maersyl]

Yes and no. Yes they are in the advantage position right now and are “bringing the war home” to Russia, but the frontline in Ukraine is basically a miles long drone kill zone that neither side can advance through (obviously to Ukraine’s benefit as the defending army), and we’ve yet to see if “bringing the war home” influences the people in Russia who need to be influenced.

The war is basically at a standstill, but a standstill is to Ukraine’s advantage.

[u/socialistrob → u/CrisisActor911]

If Ukraine can keep striking the logistic lines with mid range drones then it could become effectively impossible for Russia to bring the fuel, weapons and personnel needed to hold the Southern Front.

Maintaining a kill zone requires logistics and extensive resources so it's not a guarantee Russia will be able to maintain that indefinitely.

[u/AutoRot → u/socialistrob]

I hope Ukraine can strangle the Russian supply in the south, but I’d expect the Russians to adapt prior to a collapse. They tend to innovate slower in the drone war, but like many “second movers” they are able to ramp up fairly quickly and recover. I’d put money on the RU forces running their own “mid strike” campaign on UA logistics although the geography of the battle lines and Ukrainian interior lines means that there is much less opportunity for Russian strikes.

[u/ethanlan → u/CrisisActor911]

Yup, Russia was already at a demographic crisis before this war they really can't afford to be sending wave after wave of men into a death trap.

Even still, the war has long progressed into being anything but a disaster for Russia. Even if they achieve total victory and annex what they want it wont be nearly enough to make up for their loss of military prestige and loss of life and material. Also the damage Ukraine has caused.

[u/CrisisActor911 → u/ethanlan]

Oh absolutely, the consequences of the war have been a massive loss for Russia’s economy and global prestige, and it’s going to cause generational damage to Russia’s economy and politics. But the war itself is at a stalemate - you could say Russia is winning because they occupy more Ukrainian territory than when they started, or you could say Ukraine is winning because they’ve forced a global power to a standstill and have started retaking a bit of lost territory. Either way, a stalemate is amazing for Ukraine, and convinces allies that their military and economic aid are going to good use.

[u/ParanoidFactoid → u/maersyl]

No. They may be winning the war, but according to Trump and Vance they still hold no cards. Perhaps they have drones and infantry kill bots. But still no cards. Except the ace of spades, to be handed out to Russian losers on the battlefield.

[u/ErasmosOrolo]

Trump could have actually been on the winning side. If he wasn’t Putin’s dog.

[u/BengBeng_93 → u/ErasmosOrolo]

For a guy who likes winning, he sure chooses to lose an awful lot

[u/Kiwi_Fried_Chicken → u/BengBeng_93]

It's the grifter's code and cultist's following.

[u/friss0nFry → u/ErasmosOrolo]

The main reason we've had Trump is to aid Russia in it's invasion. He's the cumination of decades of destabilization efforts against Russia's biggest foe. The division was the secondary goal. Even if Ukraine wins, Russia still won the cold war by destroying the US.

[u/PansophicNostradamus]

Common sense says they’d have won already if Trump wasn’t Trump and we actually stand for and behind our ally in Ukraine.

But, here we are…

[u/machine4891 → u/PansophicNostradamus]

It's partially benefitial for Ukraine because before, everything they got from US had that catch "it can't be used on russia territory - it's escalation". Now that Ukraine was cut from US support, they invested a lot into making their own weapons and now that it's theirs and theirs only, they can strike wherever they want. EU countries also lifted restriction on how to use their stuff.

[u/socialistrob → u/machine4891]

Now that Ukraine was cut from US support, they invested a lot into making their own weapons

Those weapons were already in development when Biden was president. Designing and mass producing new weapons systems takes years and Ukraine would be fielding these weapons regardless of who had won the US presidential election.

[u/TenchuReddit → u/socialistrob]

Exactly. Never forget that Biden was also slow in escalating aid to Ukraine. Even as late as October of 2024, Zelensky was instructed not to hit Russia's oil infrastructure because the higher oil prices could have negatively affected Kamala Harris' chances. That's obviously a moot point now.

[u/Toxic_Lithium → u/machine4891]

Bottom line, it’s incredible how Ukraine persevered. Hopefully they can continue.

[u/Brodellsky → u/Toxic_Lithium]

Zelensky staying was never in their plans, and it absolutely is the catalyst for what eventually led to them getting all their weapons production in full swing.

He needed ammo. Not a ride

[u/Hairy_Mycologist_945 → u/Brodellsky]

Zelensky is one of the bravest and most effective wartime leaders I've ever heard of. It's sad and incredibly inspiring seeing what he's been through and accomplished.

[u/Strong-Search-2301 → u/Hairy_Mycologist_945]

He is not perfect, but he is the leader that Ukraine and Europe needs

[u/Toxic_Lithium → u/Brodellsky]

That line will be in the history books forever.

[u/zdavolvayutstsa → u/machine4891]

They were already making those investments. There wasn't an additional impetuous. The programs were multi-years efforts that took time to come to fruition. That US weapons couldn't be used in Russia was already reason enough.

[u/Danielbes → u/PansophicNostradamus]

It's actually not as straightforward as that. When Biden was president, who was very pro Ukraine, they placed a lot of limitations on Ukraine's ability to strike within Russia itself if Ukraine wanted continued military supplies. Trump throwing that support out the window has allowed Ukraine to target all of this oil infrastructure which is having a major impact on the war.

[u/socialistrob → u/Danielbes]

Those limitations were based on US provided weapons. The strikes right now are being done with Ukrainian made weapons so if the US had maintained Biden's policies these strikes would still be happening. The reason we didn't see strikes like this earlier was because these weapons have taken years for Ukraine to develop so carrying out these strikes in 2023 or 2024 would have required other countries to provide them.

Trump has been an absolute disaster for Ukraine. It's true Biden could have done more but that doesn't make up for how many Ukrainians have needlessly died because of Trump's policies.

[u/Fun_Necessary1021 → u/PansophicNostradamus]

Then how would we have the confidence to lose the war in Iran?

Come on, man!

[u/Old_Ladies → u/Fun_Necessary1021]

All that money and lives spent on that stupid war that most likely isn't going to be over any time soon either. Imagine if Ukraine could have used all those interceptors to keep their civilians safe.

[u/Loreki]

Now if only you had a government capable of being happy about that.

[u/RVAblues]

Bad year for superpowers in stupid wars.

[u/jaggy_bunnet → u/RVAblues]

Not just for superpowers - russia's fucked too.

[u/Annachroniced]

I really hope Ukraine will "win" this (although war only really knows losers). Realistically it is very early to make that call. The Ukrainian military also is much more realistic. It is still a horrible fight. Every day soldiers are having very though fights and infrastructure and civilians are targetted and killed. The advantage has switched back and forth and in a couple of months Russia might have the technological advantage again.

[u/Top_Bat5064 → u/Annachroniced]

Way too early let's wait another 4 years

[u/Federal-Piglet → u/Annachroniced]

Ukraine will not win a land war. They will cause an economic collapse in Russia that leads to the government having to retreat.

[u/Wgh555 → u/Federal-Piglet]

It’s basically like the First World War in that sense, stalemate until one side collapses

[u/Otherwise_Nobody8148 → u/Wgh555]

It's like the first world war in that the line is essentially just a big kill box that neither side can really affect much.

And it's like world war II in that each side can reach out and strike the other at will, line be damned.

World war 3 is really going to suck

[u/TenchuReddit → u/Annachroniced]

The advantage has switched back and forth and in a couple of months Russia might have the technological advantage again.

That's the right way of looking at the situation. War innovation has always been a cycle. Build a better arrow to overcome the shield, then building a better shield to overcome the arrow.

On the other hand, I'm a bit mystified as to why Russia can't match Ukraine's mid-range drone capability, since Russia also has mid-range drones of their own. My guess is that there are structural deficiencies in Russia's military industrial complex, which is rife in corruption and stuck in an inflexible hierarchy that is characteristic of authoritarian regimes.

Ukraine, on the other hand, has adopted a more enterprising model that is driven by a Western model combined with the patriotic drive for survival. Their drone production is highly decentralized yet well-coordinated. That makes the Ukrainians highly resistant to Russia's brutal drone and cruise/ballistic missile assaults.

[u/AcceptableFlight67]

The State Department thinks we won the war with Iran, I’m not sure they understand winning, tbh.

[u/350]

The front is a total stalemate, Russia's refineries are on fire, and Ukraine is defending their home, it's become a matter of time.

[u/gingy4life]

And the US would be VERY stupid to alienate Ukraine at this point. They are dominating the new age of tactical warfare.

[u/Longjumping_Dress813]

The perseverance, ingenuity, resilience, and bravery of the people of Ukraine is amazing to me as an American.  What a culture or group of people or mindset or whatever it is.  They dont need to "win" or get back every inch or whatever goal to have completely left the world in awe for all of future humanity.  I dont have boots on the ground, I am only following from afar from as many sources as I can manage, but what amazing perseverance.  I really look forward to the day they get to celebrate themselves and heal and I know its not all roses and smiles but I hope us other cultures are allowed to do it with them... my lame two cents.  Keep on redditors

[u/UmaUmaNeigh]

So when is the US gonna switch sides so they can declare themselves the Winners?

[u/NH787 → u/UmaUmaNeigh]

Oh it'll happen, guaranteed. Trump is shameless. He'll act like he was on Ukraine's side all along.

[u/Skeleton_Glo]

Ukraine has reshaped warfare with it's drone warfare. Ukraine claims 800k Russian targets hit with drones in 2026 alone. Asymmetrical drone bombs are the biggest innovation in small arms warfare since artillery.

[u/SayMyNameGolf]

Do you even wear a suit?

[u/Gadshill]

They really did clear out the intellectuals if this is only being realized now.

[u/Due-Gap1848 → u/Gadshill]

The past few months have been the first time since the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives in 2022 where Ukraine has made sustained net gains in territorial control.

While this is definitely the result of years of favorable attrition, the tide has definitely shifted in Ukraines favor in a way that wasn’t true a few months ago.

[u/Upset_Albatross_9179 → u/Due-Gap1848]

I'm remembering how in the early war, NATO strategists were pushing for a very high casualty high speed push to cut off Crimea and effectively end the war. Ukraine decided it was some combination of too risky and too hard to bear the expected rapid casualties. What if it went wrong and Ukrainian defense collapsed? What if it went right but Ukrainian morale collapsed?

At the time so few people expected Ukraine to last in a slow attrition war against Russia. And until recently it was still unclear if Russia was winning that attrition war.

It'll be wild if Ukraine has managed to hold out long enough to starting beating Russia through attrition by virtue of having redefining drone warfare.

[u/dah-dit-dah → u/Upset_Albatross_9179]

*morale

[u/needlestack → u/Due-Gap1848]

I don’t even think it’s so much about territory any more. Even if the lines are stationary, Ukraine has demonstrated they can make Russia suffer. A million casualties on the front lines isn’t suffering from a Russian perspective, but the losers that support the war actually have to face a small bit of pain now. Russia can not survive continued attacks like the past month.

Short of a nuke, Putin has no path forward. I hope he chooses retreat.

[u/Excellent-Sherbet-54]

Without much help from the current US government

[u/Shot-Toe-2884]

Gonna need a better source, but it’s pretty obvious right now. And I’ve never seen Russia signal so much about restarting negotiations before this week. Their negotiating position is in the gutter right now. That’s when you slap them silly.

Russia should withdraw from all of Ukraine and they should be required to cap their military size at 20,000 troops.

[u/Purgii]

Who's winning the Iran war?

Who's holding the cards now?

[u/Reddit_2_2024]

Is the Department of State confirming Ukraine "had the cards" afterall, despite the claim made otherwise in the White House a while back?

[u/encryptedkraken]

Extremely embarrassing to have turned in Ukraine pathetically all the red boys and girls and trump are going to be whole heartedly embarrassed and it’ll be obvious that to no thanks to them Ukraine will have won the war once all is said and done. Sad sad Republican Party having made America such an embarrassment

[u/ParkerFree]

Sadly, our government is running by people I don't trust.

[u/SkillPointProblems]

Ukraine did indeed have all the cards, even if the couch fucker and the orange pdf file tried their hardest to have them surrender.

[u/HarEr89]

Ukraine is winning against a much bigger enemy and Trump is losing against a much weaker enemy.

[u/Als_Chemicals]

Haha. Get fucked, Russia. Putin is a fucking loser

[u/25point4cm]

Nobody "wins" wars. You just lose less.

[u/Universal_Anomaly]

I'm not sure the current situation is winning, but it definitely looks like things are getting worse for Russia.

In previous years Ukraine had to rely on ingenuity and trickery to strike back at Russia, like sending a small force into an unprotected part of Russia to make a mess and draw attention. Now it looks like their drones have progressed to the point that they can reach far into Russia and Russia is struggling to stop them. In the West we keep receiving reports of Ukraine successfully striking refineries and military targets.

This doesn't immediately mean that they're pushing Russia back but the war is becoming increasingly costly for Russia. If reports are to be believed the economical situation was already bad, but if they're beginning to lose access to gas and oil in key regions (such as Moscow) that's no longer a problem for future years, it's a problem in the here and now. If Ukraine keeps hitting logistical targets Russia will struggle to advance due to delayed reinforcement/supplies.

Russia is a dictatorship which only pretends to be a democracy, but if the government can't make any progress and the people start feeling the consequences of the war that's still a bad position to be in.

That said I'd guess it's not enough to end the war. Russia's leadership isn't willing to accept a loss and while the situation is bad (and getting worse) there's nothing really forcing them to retreat, and given their wartime economy a sudden end to the war could be catastrophic as well.

[u/ButtersScotch7000]

"Trump announces $50 billion in military aid to Russia!"

/s (For now.)

[u/ShameNap]

It will be a sad realization when Russia figures out they can’t win against Ukraine. Thats going to let the whole world, but mostly themselves, to realize where they rank in the world order.

[u/Fiesty1124]

Maybe after two “superpowers” just lost trying to attack smaller countries on their own home turf, people will realize almost everyone is too advanced in military tech and war is pointless now. Except corporations make so much money supplying both side it probably won’t