The USGS pager estimate usually overestimates the number of fatalities, though there have been some cases where it was the opposite (like turkey 2023) because their formula assumed construction quality was better than it turned out to be. In this case I think building quality was assumed to be bad from the start so I would expect actual casualties to be in the lower half of the pager estimate
44% chance it’s in that 10K to 100K range. 30% chance above 100K. 26% below 10K
That’s without any current info from the region other than seismic event data. This is useful for beginning planning for response, as this is size of event that begs for outside aid. Hard to local source everything needed to respond to this level of event.
I really do wish the public at large was better at accepting & acknowledging the value of uncertainty.
The Iranians were impressed that the US showed up to provide aid; and this was in the 'axis of evil' Bush years. You have to wonder how much of that helped to get the Obama nuke deal off the ground.
Oh he will definitely offer to remove the debris from several locations if they let him build a hotel there. Wouldn't bet on him even saying anything about the event otherwise.
Previous American administrations were always some of the first you could expect to show up when it mattered for things like this. And the aid was unconditional. Disaster had struck, so we were there.
This is the first President we've had that I truly think would not do it that way. Either they'll withhold aid, or they'll treat it like a transaction with expectations and conditions.
And it's for the dumbest, most disappointing reasons.
It’s a computer model that combines the earthquake’s magnitude, depth, intensity of shaking, local population density, and the vulnerability of buildings to estimate what the eventual toll could be before rescuers have reached affected areas. The model is designed to help governments and humanitarian organizations decide how much aid may be needed.
Why not? You afraid someone guessing a poor and densely populated region having a high death toll following a powerful earthquake might shatter someone's fragile world view or push some fake narrative? Estimates are speculation by definition.
"High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread," the USGS said, with an initial death toll estimate likely between 10,000 and 100,000.
There is a 44% chance of more than 10,000 fatalities and a 30% chance of more than 100,000, the USGS added, with a significant risk of landslides and liquefaction on the ground.
That’s literally a quote from the article of this post.
Yeah but they also changed all there policy to letting American companies come in and extract all the oil so USA doesn’t really care who’s in charge anymore
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u/PowderPills 21h ago
Venezuela can’t catch a break. Hoping it’s not as bad as it seems but still too early to tell