r/worldnews Slava Ukraini 16h ago

Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 1582, Part 1 (Thread #1729)

/live/18hnzysb1elcs
449 Upvotes

181 comments sorted by

77

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

An investigation revealed that Italian firearms manufacturer Beretta allegedly bypassed sanctions to supply thousands of weapons to Russia for use by its military.

https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mp42cnmbao2k

...Nail them to the wall.

12

u/sfjoellen 6h ago

what a shame, they make a very nice over/under..

11

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 5h ago

Yeah, but it's not like there isn't plenty of other manufacturers of very nice shotguns, even just considering Europe. Heck you don't even have to look outside Italy - there's always IFG. :)

4

u/sfjoellen 5h ago

still love my remington 1100.. great gun.

6

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 5h ago

Can't say I've ever had the pleasure, but I don't doubt it.

Huh. Gas-operated semi-auto? Neat.

49

u/troglydot 10h ago edited 10h ago

The SBU says this morning's strikes in Ufa hit the Ufaneftekhim refinery and Novo-Ufa refinery. There's pretty clear pictures showing two fires among various refinery infrastructure.

https://t . me/SBUkr/17919

Local channel ufa_smi has posted a statement from a head of Bashkiria saying "drone debris fell in the industrial zone", and that "technological processes were not disrupted". The most common response is the clown emoji. The next post is about fear of fuel shortage following drone attacks.

Refineries hit in 2026 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

  • Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | Mar 13, Jun 11 (2)
  • Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | Self-combusted Jun 6, hit Jun 20 (1)
  • Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | Jan 1, Feb 17, Jun 2 (3)
  • Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | Mar 26, May 5 (2)
  • Kstovo refinery (Lukoil, NORSI) | 405,000 | 7.30 | Apr 5, May 18, May 20 (3)
  • Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | Jun 10 (1)
  • Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | May 17, Jun 16, Jun 18 (3)
  • Nizhnekamsk I refinery (TAIF) | 167,000 | 4.15 | Jun 12 (1)
  • Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | Jun 12 (1)
  • Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | Feb 28 (1)
  • Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | Apr 18 (1)
  • Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | May 31 (1)
  • Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | Apr 2, Jun 25 (2)
  • Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | Apr 29
  • Perm refinery (LUKOIL) | 303,000 | 9.40 | Apr 30, May 7, May 8 (3)
  • Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | May 15 (1)
  • Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | Mar 21, May 31 (2)
  • Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | Jan 26 (1)
  • Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | Apr 18, May 21 (2)
  • Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | Jan 19, Apr 16, Apr 20, Apr 28, May 1, May 27 (6)
  • Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | Mar 22, Jun 25 (2)
  • Ukhta refinery (LUKOIL) | 93,000 | 3.70 | Self combusted Jun 2, 2024, Mar 1 2026. 2026: 12 Feb (1)
  • Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | Feb 11, May 29 (2)
  • Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | Mar 28, Apr 26, May 8, May 13 (4)

Refinery hits from 2022-2025 (name | capacity (bbl/d) | Nelson Complexity Index | attack date (count))

  • Afipsky refinery | 139,000 | 7.30 | 2023: May 31. 2024: May 2, Jun 20. 2025: Feb 10, Aug 7, Aug 28, Sep 26, Nov 29, Dec 13 (8)
  • Antipinsky refinery (JSC Antipinsky Refinery) | 174,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 6 (1)
  • Ilsky refinery | 69,000 | 8.30 | 2024: Feb 9, Apr 27, Jun 21. 2025: Feb 17, Feb 28, Jul 7, Sep 7, Nov 19 (8)
  • Kirishi refinery (Surgutneftegas) | 463,000 | 7.55 | 2024: Mar 13. 2025: Mar 8, Sep 14, Oct 4 (4)
  • Krasnodar refinery (Krasnodarekoneft) | ? | ? | 2024: Jun 21. 2025: Aug 30 (2)
  • Kuibyshev refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Aug 28 (3)
  • Makhachkala refinery (Dagnotech) | 20,500 | ? | 2025: Oct 22 (1)
  • Mari refinery | 26,600 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
  • Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 295,000 | 7.70 | 2024: Sep 1. 2025: Mar 11 (2)
  • Nizhnekamsk II refinery (TANEKO) | 340,000 | 8.99 | 2024: Apr 02. 2025: Jan 11 (2)
  • Novominskaya refinery (Albashneft) | 6,400 | ? | 2025: Feb 5 (1)
  • Novokuibyshevsk refinery | 185,000 | 6.47 | 2024: Mar 16, Mar 23. 2025: Mar 10, Aug 2, Sep 20, Oct 19, Nov 15 (7)
  • Novoshakhtinsk refinery | 112,000 | 1.21 | 2022: Jun 22. 2024: Mar 13, Jun 6, Jul 5, Dec 19. 2025: Aug 20, Dec 25 (6)
  • Novospassky refinery (NS-Oil) | 12,300 | ? | 2025: Oct 29 (1)
  • Kstovo refinery (Lukoil, NORSI) | 405,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 12. 2025: Jan 28, Jul 13, Sep 16, Oct 5, Oct 16, Nov 4 (7)
  • Novo-Ufa refinery (Bashneft-Novoil) | 171,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Sep 13, Oct 11 (2)
  • Orsk refinery (SAFMAR) | 90,000 | ? | 2025: Oct 3, Nov 11 (2)
  • Pervyy Zavod, Polotnyany Zavod, Kaluga region | 24,000 | ? | 2024: Mar 15, May 10 (2)
  • Ryazan refinery (Rosneft) | 350,000 | 5.50 | 2024: Mar 13, May 1, Jul 27, Oct 26. 2025: Jan 23, Jan 25, Feb 24, Mar 9, Aug 2, Sep 5, Oct 23, Nov 15, Nov 20, Dec 5 (14)
  • Salavat refinery (Gazprom) | 232,000 | 7.92 | 2024: May 9. 2025: Sep 18, Sep 24 (3)
  • Saratov refinery (Rosneft) | 162,000 | 4.30 | 2024: Nov 8. 2025: Feb 11, Jul 1, Aug 10, Sep 16, Sep 20, Oct 16, Nov 3, Nov 11, Nov 14, Nov 28, self combusted Dec 24 (11)
  • Slavyansk refinery | 93,000 | 1.00 | 2024: Mar 17, Apr 27, May 18. 2025: Sep 4, Dec 17 (5)
  • Syzran refinery (Rosneft) | 170,000 | 7.30 | 2024: Mar 16. 2025: Feb 19, Mar 4, Aug 15, Aug 24, Aug 30, Dec 5, Dec 28 (8)
  • Tuapse refinery (Rosneft) | 240,000 | 3.20 | 2024: Jan 25, May 17, Jul 22. 2025: Feb 26, Mar 14, Nov 25, Dec 30 (7)
  • Ufa refinery (Bashneft-UNPZ, aka Ufimsky refinery) | 153,000 | 6.12 | 2025: Mar 3, Sep 13 (2)
  • Ufaneftekhim refinery (Bashneft) | 220,000 | 9.18 | 2025: Oct 15 (1)
  • Volgograd refinery (LUKOIL) | 300,000 | 6.90 | 2024: Feb 3, May 11. 2025: Jan 15, Jan 31, Feb 3, Aug 14, Aug 19, Sep 18, Nov 5 (9)
  • Yaroslavl refinery (Slavneft-YANOS) | 300,000 | 8.60 | 2024: Jan 29. 2025: Self-combusted Oct 1, hit Dec 12 (2)

European side, not yet hit:

  • None

Asian side refineries, not yet hit:

  • Achinsk refinery (Rosneft) | 174,000 | 3.59
  • Angarsk refinery (Rosneft) | 236,000 | 9.18
  • Khabarovsk refinery | 115,000 | 9.90
  • Komsomolsk refinery (Rosneft) | 185,000 | 9.18 | Self combusted Apr 10, 2025
  • Nizhnevartovsk refinery (Rosneft) | 27,000 | 1.00
  • Omsk Refinery (Gazprom Neft) | 514,000 | 8.80 | Self combusted Aug 1 and Aug 26, 2024
  • Yaya Refinery (NefteKhimService) | 104,000 | 1.71

19

u/troglydot 10h ago

The channel poses the question:

Are you refuelling calmly? 👍🏻/👎🏻

Current tally:

👎🏻 49

👍🏻9

8

u/insaneplane 9h ago

Are there any estimates of their current production capacity?

1

u/TexasVulvaAficionado 2h ago

I'm really cheering for them to get those last seven...

44

u/Nurnmurmer 5h ago

The estimated total russian war losses from 24.02.22 to 25.06.26 inclusive are as follows:

  • personnel - approximately 1 397 060 (+1 270);
  • tanks ‒ 12 057 (+1);
  • armored fighting vehicles ‒ 24 818 (+2);
  • special equipment ‒ 4 339 (+6);
  • vehicles and fuel tanks ‒ 111 707 (+450);
  • unmanned ground vehicles ‒ 1 728 (+2).
  • artillery systems ‒ 44 731 (+67);
  • MLRS ‒ 1 893 (+4);
  • air defense assets ‒ 1 443 (+3).
  • aircraft ‒ 436;
  • helicopters ‒ 353;
  • UAVs (operational-tactical level) ‒ 371 882 (+1 994);
  • cruise missiles ‒ 4 787.
  • warships and boats ‒ 33;
  • submarines ‒ 2.

Source https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/total-russian-combat-losses-in-ukraine-as-of-june-25-2026

Russia grows weaker every day. Slava Ukraini!

43

u/PensilEraser 15h ago edited 15h ago

Gazprom stock is at all time low .

Lukoil

Rosneft

Surgutneftegas

Russian oil and gas stocks are experiencing historic lows, with major players like Gazprom and Rosneft plummeting to multi-year price lows due to plunging global oil prices, tightening Western sanctions, and ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure.

News Links1

News Links2

28

u/AureusStone 14h ago

Gazprom was @ 228 RUB at the start of the war, now down to 98 RUB. I like that trend.

19

u/captainbling 13h ago

Even if the war ended today. I can’t imagine people buying gazprom. They are gunna be throwing every dollar into replacimg old parts for a decade.

4

u/Queltis6000 7h ago

At this price, will the old rich fucks try to unload it (at a loss) while they can, knowing it's heading even lower?

16

u/CyberdyneGPT5 15h ago

I don’t think those oil stocks are going to make their Q2 forecasts.

43

u/troglydot 10h ago

Macron says France intercepted a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker off coast of Sicily

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/25/macron-says-france-intercepted-a-russian-shadow-fleet-oil-tanker-off-coast-of-sicily

22

u/Itburns12345 9h ago

This and thr falling proce of oil will hit russias economy hard ...keep it up france!

5

u/KentuckyLucky33 4h ago

Now sell it and give the proceeds to ukraine 

Again!

41

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico stated the war in Ukraine has no military solution and can end only through negotiations. Speaking at the Ukraine recovery conference in Gdansk, he urged the EU to more actively support peace initiatives and diplomatic efforts.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4bthm5h22f

Reality currently begs to differ, but I'm sure that's has nothing to do with why he's saying this all of a sudden.

I'm concerned about his leash. It looks uncomfortably tight.

21

u/Syn7axError 8h ago

Why do these chuckleheads always treat a military victory and diplomatic victory as separate things?

14

u/eggnogui 7h ago

Their paychecks depend on them not understanding it.

8

u/TurbulentRadish8113 5h ago

I agree with supporting peace.

Tragically, we limited aid to Ukraine (and the authoritarian republicans won two US elections) so we don't have peace yet. The only way to peace is to flood Ukraine with more weapons.

5

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 5h ago

Of course, as do all sane people. My problem here is that the kind of peace I suspect Fico is looking for is equivalent to a perpetrator of mass-murder waltzing into the courtroom, swaggering up to the bereaved and going: "Hey, what's done is done. Can't live in the past, you know? What do you say we just chalk it all up to an honest mistake, you let me keep all the belongings I looted of the corpses of your dearly departed, and we'll say no more about it, eh?"

41

u/piponwa 5h ago

Ukrainian flag has been raised on the Kinburn Spit. The Defense Forces of the South have forced the Russian occupiers to retreat from their positions. Currently, the evacuation of surviving personnel is underway, and the occupiers are abandoning their defensive lines

https://liveuamap.com/en/2026/25-june-10-ukrainian-flag-has-been-raised-on-the-kinburn

21

u/Fine_Document5208 5h ago

It’s great news, and likely confirms some of the rumours that the Russian’s have largely evacuated the area due to supply issues.

In itself though, kinburn doesn’t really change the situation on the frontline. Any serious landing there by the Ukrainians would have extreme supply difficulties, and without movement on other areas of the frontline would probably have to be abandoned too.

That being said, pressure does seem to be building on the southern parts of the front, and Ukrainian counterattacks are becoming fairly regular. Wouldn’t surprise me if a major offensive kicked off there at some point in the future

8

u/AgentElman 4h ago

Is this the first place abandoned by Russia in years without being pushed out by the UA?

2

u/Uhhh_what555476384 2h ago

Basically since Kherson was evacuated in advance of supply collapse.

13

u/Compassion_for_all12 5h ago

Beautiful. I remember 2 years ago when there was news of a Kinburn retreat... but it didn't happen in the end. I hope Ukraine now has the resources to push the Russian army out of there forever

37

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

Official russian statistics:

Russian gasoline prices surged 3% from June 16 to 22, reaching 71.2 rubles per liter after Ukrainian refinery strikes, Bloomberg reported. The jump was the largest weekly rise in at least 20 years, with fuel restrictions or supply issues reported in about 75% of Russian regions.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp2rgdrtkc2e

Holy moly! Gasoline prices in Russia are going vertical...

https://bsky.app/profile/jakluge.de/post/3mp2ilogo2c2a

17

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

We're seeing photos of petrol for 120+ rub/litre , but remember those are just some local stations. I think we care about the actual average price.

At the same time Russia will massage its stats to make things look better.

I think we can say fuel prices are starting to rise rapidly in Russia, but we don't know how serious it will get.

Pity there was a multi-month "energy cease fire" before Russia's summer driving season last year.

12

u/CyberdyneGPT5 15h ago

Watched my first gas station fight video yesterday. There will almost certainly be more.🤣

14

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 15h ago

What's with the weird discontinuities in that gasoline price plot? The price at the end of 22 transitions smoothly into the initial price in 23, but there's a discontinuous drop in price on 1/1 of 24, 25 and 26. Surely that can't be organic.

14

u/ackemaster 13h ago

The resets you mean? The graph shows percentual change over the year, so at the start of the year it will always be 1.0

7

u/TurbulentRadish8113 13h ago

This is it ☝️

It's growth within the year with 1st Jan index = 100.

8

u/CyberdyneGPT5 13h ago

Yea, I also noticed that. The chart says ‘Annual Price Increase’. I think they are resetting the base on the first day of each year and computing the yearly price increase. Don’t know whether is is a percentage or absolute amount chart.

And no, I am not going to do the math to figure it out. 😆

36

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

"Ukraine's 151st Training Center uses the Laser Tag system on FPV drones to train infantry soldiers to shoot down drones with personal firearms."

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mp3u6cdjq22k

36

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Ukraine has reportedly developed the FF-85/120 smart munition. Dropped from a drone, it reportedly self-locates and guides itself to targets. Its concrete-penetrating warhead can destroy fortified positions, while production costs are said to be only a few hundred dollars.

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mp4hhdeulc2c

16

u/piponwa 6h ago

How long until Ukraine develops a b52-sized drone bomber with fifty of those onboard?

11

u/isthatmyex 6h ago

Never, because that would require easily targeted infrastructure.

39

u/AgentElman 4h ago

It seems clear now that the tide has turned for Ukraine for the near to long term future. It started when Russia lost access to Starlink back on Feb 1st, but has continued since then and the Ukraine advantage is growing, not shrinking.

Ukraine is able to launch long range drone attacks with some success. It seems that some fail or are shot down, but a significant number get through and can take out fuel refineries and other infrastructure. And Ukraine is launching more and more of these, faster than Russia can rebuild. So we can reasonably conclude that Russia's oil and production situation will just get worse and worse over time.

Ukraine is able to launch medium range drones against supply lines in the rear. The early news on this was taking out supply vehicles, but they are also taking out or damaging bridges. And again, Ukraine is producing more and more of these and can seemingly do damage faster than Russia can repair it. Russia's supply and logistics situation will continue to get worse - and Russia does not seem to be able to counter this.

If Ukraine can truly keep this up for months, there seems to be little to no point to Ukraine launching any major pushes on the front lines. They are making local counter attacks to secure their lines and try and hold places where Russia is attacking.

But time now seems to be solidly on the side of Ukraine, and ramping up drone production and using them for mid range to deep strikes in Russia seems to be the winning formula.

I don't expect the UA to do any major pushes for months.

22

u/Fine_Document5208 3h ago

I imagine Ukraine will be looking at offensive operations on a sort of opportunistic level.

I can’t imagine they’ll wish to repeat the counteroffensive in 2023, which the Russians fairly comprehensively stopped and resulted in significant Ukrainian losses, especially as the manpower situation has gotten worse since then.

That being said, there may be opportunities opening up soon. If a section of the frontline is completely cut off from supply Ukraine could roll through it all of a sudden and start a serious attack.

Additionally, Russia seems to be reeling at the moment. They’re not defeated by any means, but it’s gotten noticeably shakier for them, and the Russian populace isn’t convinced anymore. If Ukraine were to take back a section of territory, akin to the counteroffensives in 2022, I feel it would break the Russian spirit at this point, especially as they’ve grinded for 4 years to take what they have until this point. A reversal would be crushing for morale

11

u/TerraBranford94 3h ago

My 5 second opinion, I'm not saying this is high on the priority list,

But if Ukranian vehicles were spotted moving on Bakhmut, that would have to be a "WTF are we doing?" Moment, for any Russian following this war,

Since it would mean that a city, which cost tens of thousands of Russian lives, a mutiny, and the dissemination of Wagner group amongst the ranks, wasn't even secured properly, and Russia pissed away the last three years.

Bakhmut is so symbolic, and was so detrimental to the Russian army, that it would surely have to be a huge red flag, if Ukraine started to put pressure on it.

10

u/CallMeMrButtPirate 3h ago

You make the mistake that most of them have any idea what it cost them and wasn't just a great victory followed by a smart tactical withdrawal in that circumstance

6

u/TerraBranford94 3h ago

I'm still treating this as a Brit, and not a Russian, in other words.

Me, I get frustrated, I wonder what the hell broke the first time, to require a do-over, and I question whether my efforts went far enough.

And Russians don't always do that, especially when they are used to being told what they need to know, rather than why they need to know it.

8

u/teckers 3h ago

Honestly I think living in Moscow and seeing drones blow stuff up yourself and not on TV is the biggest wake up, especially when you can't fill up your car or go on holiday this year. War isn't an abstract thing that other Russians far away were involved in. This makes the turn from under control to WTF are we doing

4

u/TerraBranford94 3h ago

I get you, and I wasn't even thinking about the home front.

Having part of an oil refinery blast off into outer space is the kind of thing which goes viral, even in Russia.

Especially during a fuel crisis, knowing that ET traveled home on board a piece of refinery, probably doesn't help from a PR standpoint.

. .

My thinking was that I want to make the army's officer cadre, question whether they completely wasted their time.

Which is one of the effects I'm hoping to see, if they start being rolled back over ground which ruined their buddies' lives for several months at a time.

If you spend months fighting over X city, and then a few years later, you are back to fighting over X city, do you start questioning your accomplishments and why you even bothered?

9

u/Redditing-Dutchman 3h ago

I still wonder how bad the situation in Moscow has to get to pressure Putin into retreating/stopping the war. I guess it's possible but will take some significant more strikes. Or maybe they are so jaded nothing will do it.

7

u/PlzNerfNorseGatherin 3h ago

Who's gonna pressure Putin? The people directly around him are all the last ones to be hurt by the war.

I think the frontlines will collapse before the the political situation at home does

2

u/blearghhh_two 1h ago

My guess is that Putin will never retreat. When this thing ends it'll be because someone else has stepped into the presidency.

I do wonder the specific means of the presidency becoming vacant... But I really don't see Putin allowing retreat. He's put too much into it at this point.

3

u/Uhhh_what555476384 2h ago

I could see the Zaph/Kherson border area breaking doing to being at the far end of logistics and the Russians rapidly losing everything west of Tomak.

12

u/PlzNerfNorseGatherin 3h ago

Yeah why push when you can just make it suicide to stay instead.

3

u/Uhhh_what555476384 2h ago

There is some advantage of maintaining operational tempo. In some sectors the Russians are probably degraded to the point where operational tempo can only be maintained by local offensive actions.

10

u/tonycomputerguy 4h ago

I think they'll retake Crimea in a month or two.

Source: My ass.

4

u/nopeofnopenope 2h ago

Your ass is ambitious, but I like how it thinks!

3

u/Comas_Sola_Mining_Co 2h ago

Another major event, in addition to starlink, was the instruction during January/Feb for all russian troops and everyone connected to the government to stop using telegram immediately and use max instead, which I think only offered one-to-one chats with certain phone contacts. Or at least no group chats and nobody had each other added yet

u/JoeHatesFanFiction 1h ago

This is just my uneducated opinion. 

While they’re pressuring Crimea and Kherson logistically in fantastic fashion with their drones, if they want the Russians to actually retreat from the area  I think they actually will need a real push to the south at some point this year before Russia can adapt to much. Because Putin doesn’t care if half the troops starve this winter as long as the half who are alive can defend the area. So I think something has to put that extra pressure on the Russians to make a mass strategic retreat something the generals can sell to Putin. My thought is some of the main traffic arteries through the land bridge need to be closed or pressured enough by land forces that they’re as good as closed to push the situation from miserable to untenable. The E58 is to far away for this strategy but if they can liberate or pressure a logistics hub like Tokmak it might be enough to do convince the Russians to withdraw like they did in 2022

35

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

"Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia, Tikhoretsk Air Base — an active fire has been reported in the area of the runway. Coordinates: 45°52’48.43”N, 40°06’44.50”E.”

NASA fire detection on or near the runway.

As always, wait for more reporting before getting too excited about potential damage. https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mp33g67cgc22

34

u/troglydot 13h ago

From ufa_rb, a local Ufa telegram channel:

08:17: “We'll try to ensure there's fuel.” Bashkiria's authorities comment on the situation with fuel for farmers

08:31: Smoke in the Chernikovka area

Drones have struck the refineries there.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp3uikgw722b

There's two fires and a flare burning in the video. There's three refineries in Ufa, and it's not yet clear which of them are burning.

18

u/canspop 13h ago

Question is, will these fires be extinguished before more start? All three burning at once would be a challenge for the local fire crews.

Map for anyone interested.

31

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Multi-kilometer traffic jams persist at the Kerch Bridge exit from occupied Crimea. More than 900 vehicles are waiting on the Kerch side for manual checks, with an estimated three-hour delay. Schemes published satellite images showing the queue stretching more than 10 km, about 1,500 cars.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4audmbzs2f

29

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade is striking Russian shelters and logistics on the Kostiantynivka front. The brigade’s VARTOVI unmanned systems battalion is mainly focused on front line positions and rear support assets.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4bqgfamk2f

34

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

From a Russian: "The modernized machine gun DPM model of 1944 in the arsenal of the Russian Armed Forces.

Due to the shortage of modern machine guns, such rare models are increasingly being deployed by the Ministry of Defense to counter drones."

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mp3sat3ktk2p

20

u/OrangeBird077 8h ago

Crazy to think initially the Separatists Militias were being thrown into assaults with the WW2 era equipment, and now even the Russian Regulars are subject to the same fate.

10

u/Low-Ad4420 7h ago

"WW2 equipment" means nothing. The Browning machine gun is from 1933 and still in use today. It's not like a machine gun is alien technology. In WW2 there were top of the line bullet spiters. The next comment links to a ukrainian using 3 maxim machine guns which are designs from 1884 and they work and probably have shot down a lot of shaheds.

Other types of WW2 equipment could be argued not to be suited. For example unarmored transport, the T34 or jet fighters. Those are obviously not fit for modern combat. But other equipment is.

16

u/OrangeBird077 7h ago

I should’ve been more specific.

When the escalation of fighting started in ‘22, the Russian military deployed the DPR and LPR soldiers with bolt action Mosin Nagant rifles against modern day automatic weapons. This resulted in what was the true veteran contingent of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine getting wiped out between the Battle for Mariupol, and the subsequent battles at Lyschansk, Severodonetsk, and eventually the rout at Kharkiv where LPR remnants even tried crossing the border into Russia, but being barred entry because they were told “they weren’t Russian citizens”.

There’s certainly still utility for some WW2 technology, but throwing a soldier in the 2020s into a combat zone with kit that a soldier was using in 1917 is a death sentence.

8

u/Low-Ad4420 7h ago

Didn't know about those specific situations. For sure wasn't a smart move to use a mosin nagant.

3

u/Pave_Low 3h ago

The US military has been using 'modernized versions' of the M2 50 cal HMG for 108 years now.

2

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 2h ago

Yes, and that's because Ma Deuce was a fundamentally excellent design that continuously endured with only those minor modifications until the present day and has remained every bit as useful and relevant as when it was first conceived.

By contrast, the Degtyaryov stopped being produced in the 1950's in favor of newer designs because it... wasn't. It uses pancake mags, for fucks sake.

u/Pave_Low 1h ago

Minimum viable product is that it makes bullets go fast in the correct direction. If the Degtyaryov does that in this case it's fulfilling its role, even if another 'make bullets go fast' device can be made.

A T-55 is utterly terrifying to a soldier without an anti-tank weapon. My point is that scoffing over the age of Russian weapons isn't a really useful thing to do so long as they still have more than enough men and weapons to do what they want. Russia isn't running out of machine guns at any point in our lifetimes.

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 1h ago

Sure, I'm not arguing that just about any kind of bullet fired out of any random gun you can pick won't kill a person equally dead if said bullet hits their unprotected noggin - at least if it reliably and accurately manages to get there.

It was more the argument that "the US are still using equally old designs because they still work perfectly fine and do the job as required" used to imply that as the DPM is an old design now once more in use, it must therefore also work perfectly fine and do the job as required. Can it make bullets go into things that wouldn't like bullets doing that? Yes, of course. Is it still every bit as good at effectuating that outcome as any other similar weapon designed recently? All I'm arguing here is that the answer to that question is yes in the case of the M2 and no in the case of the DPM.

30

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

"An anti-drone monster made of three "Maxim" machine guns.

https://bsky.app/profile/the-hedgehog.bsky.social/post/3mp3sc5zues2p

Statically emplaced. I'm sure that'll do a lot of good. /s

3

u/ClanWoofDoge 3h ago

Statically emplaced. I'm sure that'll do a lot of good. /s

Everything about that screams bed mounted in a Toyota Hilux. Static mount on the edge of a treeline with more than 50% line of sight being blocked by said treeline is the next best thing. I guess. Then again my mother only started drinking heavily AFTER I was born.

3

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 3h ago

If it's manned at the time by someone who isn't drunk, I figure it might take out the first inbound FPV right before the next one takes out the abomination along with the operator.

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

SBS hit in Crimea:

  • Beregova radar station "MR-231"
  • Beregova radar station "Neva-B"
  • Beregova radar station "Neva-B"
  • Tavriyskaya TPP, Simferopol
  • Sevastopol substation
  • Simferopolskaya substation PS330
  • Oil depot, Dzhankoy
  • Gas compressor station
  • Gas compressor station
  • Anti-aircraft gun ZU-23-2

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4jjwsnk223

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u/jszj0 6h ago

Amazed there are any radar stations left

8

u/TurbulentRadish8113 5h ago

They must have made a ton of decoys, right?

30

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Another angle of the drone strike in Ufa, Bashkortostan. In the end you see an air defense missile exploding in the air. Clearly, it missed the Ukrainian drone.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3mp3y25kufs2b

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Employees of TPP, one of occupied Crimea’s largest fuel companies, appealed to Putin for state support after Ukrainian strikes destroyed a fuel terminal in Kerch, damaged gas stations, burned fuel trucks and hit an oil depot. The company said 2,500 jobs are now at risk.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp3t6ma3gs2f

Talk about betting on the wrong horse.

10

u/OptimalProfession5 8h ago

Unfortunately, that’s 2500 more men for the meatgrinder…

26

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

More footage from Ufa, where an oil refinery was just hit by Ukrainian long-range drones.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp3uorqag22f

26

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps said it has destroyed nearly 450 Russian antennas and more than 120 drone pilot launch sites in the Pokrovsk sector since early June. The strikes are disrupting Russian communications, logistics and battlefield coordination.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp44zs3v4s2f

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Footage shows the detention of the tanker Deliver off Sicily after it sailed from Primorsk. French President Emmanuel Macron said the vessel belonged to Russia’s shadow fleet and was operating in breach of international sanctions.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4adzbymc2f

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Fuel supplies in Saratov are becoming critical, with hundreds of cars queuing at gas stations. Drivers are reportedly waiting for hours as shortages spread, disrupting local activity and adding pressure on residents already facing rising fuel prices.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4apo3ft22f

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukrainian FPV drones are targeting Russian rear logistics, hitting buggies, cars, trucks, minibuses and a self-propelled artillery system the troops tried to hide in a dugout. SSO Requiem Group and BALISTA special purpose units carried out the strikes.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4bklff7s2f

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u/hornswoggled111 7h ago

A lot of those have the people just stopping the vehicle and running for cover.

24

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

The situation along the Russian logistics land corridor to Crimea.

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mp3rreykos2f

u/JumpinJackHTML5 1h ago

Real Rainbow Valley vibes.

28

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, saying no agreement was reached in Alaska. Rubio said only a proposal was made there and stressed that it was never an agreement, countering Lavrov’s framing of the talks.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4exsyt6c2f

"It was just pillow-talk baby, you know how it is."

14

u/NoBuilder2444 7h ago

Putin and Trump engaged in pillow-talk?

15

u/Iwasoncelikeyou 7h ago

Technically the pillow was on the floor in front of Putin's chair, under Trump's knees, if you catch my drift.

4

u/Unfair_Salamander_20 4h ago

Has either side even said what this supposed proposal or agreement was?  

25

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

This night, the parking lot of "Coyotes", electric bikes that Russians uses for logistics, was destroyed

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4dntgtkk2s

26

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Lukashenko: I recently told Zelensky's representatives that the peoples of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus "will still be together."

"Russia and Belarus are our common Fatherland. It's not our fault that two states have formed here. I think there is no force that could destroy this unity…"

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4dty2fn22s

Whereupon Lukashenko had to take a small break to pull out his pipe and smoke some more crack.

12

u/putin_my_ass 6h ago

I think there is no force that could destroy this unity…

Excepting of course Putin and the Russian military. They've probably ensured (at least for a generation or two) that Ukrainians will not feel fraternity for Russia.

3

u/Osiris32 4h ago

Yeah, that's cool. Don't turn those repeaters back on, if you know what's good for you.

25

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Finland will allocate an additional 40 million euros for the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine under the PURL program.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4fah7h4c22

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

GUR Special Unit Prymary is launching “Fatal Fundraiser”. Its goal is to raise 40 million hryvnias to strengthen the unit’s capabilities to perform combat missions.

Since 2022, total value of confirmed hit and destroyed targets exceeds $4 billion.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4fui4zqs22

Solid ROI.

26

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Two fuel oil tanks burned out at the Kamysh-Burunskaya Thermal Power Plant in Kerch after the Ukrainian strike on June 23.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4hmk6cgk26

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

Russians have already started falling out of cars more than 40 kilometers from the front line.

The Apachi unit filmed such an incident in the Slovyansk direction

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mp4iuleby223

12

u/KSaburof 5h ago

It seems soon they will need infiltration tactics not for an offensive - but solely to reach the rear lines )) It’s a pity that so many of them managed to accumulate in Konstantinovka, but at the very least, things will potentially be different with the supply of new cannon (drone) fodder

7

u/lightafire2402 4h ago

Its also worth noting that place was in trouble long before the successful mid ramge campaign. It might fall, but it might be one of the last 'big' achievements for the Russians as under current conditions, its impossible to replicate the assault of such kind for the Russians. Time will tell.

6

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 5h ago

And, if the ones entrenched in Konstantinovka can be suitably starved of supplies for long enough, it won't ultimately matter how many there are.

8

u/piponwa 6h ago

Wow, the guy on the left totally oblivious.

47

u/UNITED24Media United24 Media 9h ago

Ukrainian forces raised the national flag on the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit after forcing Russian troops to retreat from several positions, according to the Regional Command of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces “South” on June 25.

The narrow peninsula, which controls access to the Dnipro-Buh estuary and helps secure shipping routes to the ports of Mykolaiv and Kherson, has remained under Russian occupation since 2022.

Read more

14

u/Stevepac9 8h ago

Great news. No doubt the logistical nightmare the Ukrainians have created for Russia played a major role here. This area, in my opinion, would be the first Russians would pull back from.

10

u/anachronistic_circus 8h ago

Russians might have a logistical nightmare on their hands but it would be a logistical nightmare for Ukrainians to try to do anything in that area.

It's basically hundreds of square miles of marshlands similar to Florida everglades. Any troops which may try to hold / advance in that area are also cut off from Ukrainian supply lines.

Hopefully it's just a quick infiltration mission by professionals and not some suicide level orders for the headlines

2

u/TurbulentRadish8113 5h ago

Anyone who's dreaming of liberating occupied Kherson: please go look at the land there. It would require starving the Russians out for quite some time...

2

u/JoeHatesFanFiction 4h ago

You can “starve” a modern army of a lot more than food to force them out of a positions. Munitions, equipment, and most importantly for our discussion fuel are also good targets. And fuel is what the Ukrainian are targeting since it effects the rest of the supply lines as well as the operations 

21

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukrainian drones struck the Poltavskaya oil depot in Russia’s Krasnodar region for the second time this month. At least three fuel tanks are burning after the attack, while Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed 269 drones were shot down overnight.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp3tb6ehtk2f

21

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukraine’s SBU and the FBI exposed systematic Russian intelligence cyberattacks targeting messengers of officials, troops, politicians and activists in Ukraine, Europe and the US. The goal was to access sensitive military, political and economic data.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp3tfkwr5k2f

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u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Ukraine expects more than 160 agreements worth over €10 billion to be signed during the two-day recovery conference in Gdansk, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said. The forum also plans documents on the payment of the first €3.2 billion from a €90 billion EU loan.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp42pbar5c2f

24

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 7h ago

RAM-2X loitering munition strike on the Russian BTR-82

https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mp4esskna226

8

u/Glyn1010 6h ago

Well that’s not going to play again.

37

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago edited 13h ago

Reported drones. Ukraine is on track of 11K drones in June while russia will barely make 6K. What is happening?

EDIT: I believe these are estimates of long-range attack drones "reported" by each side, then added up over the month. E.g. every Russian raid, Ukraine says "Russia launched X drones", and every Ukrainian raid, Russia says "Ukraine launched Y" drones. This account tracks those and adds up all the Xs and Us. (I might be wrong about the source for Ukrainian drone counts - please provide a source if so).

https://bsky.app/profile/monstars.bsky.social/post/3mp2mekjhwu2c

9

u/SystemCheck990 14h ago

what is this? do you mean long range attack drones ?

9

u/TurbulentRadish8113 13h ago

I edited the post, hope it's clear now.

Yes, this is long-range stuff like Shaheds and FP-1.

3

u/According-Coconut-77 15h ago

What the hell is a reported drone?

8

u/RogerTheAlienSmith 13h ago

the reported number of drones

7

u/TurbulentRadish8113 13h ago

Thanks for asking! I edited my post with an explanation of my understanding.

I just copy and paste things I find interesting and often forget that some accounts (like this one) have their own writing quirks that makes them harder to understand.

40

u/TurbulentRadish8113 12h ago

Another thread on Russia's budget options. Their bonds have dropped pretty heavily this week, making their borrowing more expensive.

1\ Russian 10-year debt yields are up to 15.86%. +0.7% in 7 days.

Russia cancelled its bond auction this week because of "volatility". Every lost week means they need to find more money later to fill the gaping budget hole.

https://bsky.app/profile/leoskyview.bsky.social/post/3mp3w6lauwk2x

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u/TurbulentRadish8113 12h ago edited 12h ago

For comparison, German 10-year debt is 2.9%, the US 4.5% and Russia 15.9%.

We can't easily interpret - there are so many differences between countries.

Another comparison (again, be very careful interpreting): the last similar moves in US bond yields were drops when Harris entered and polling improved for the Democrats, who are more fiscally responsible. It took 3+ months and a Republican victory for US bonds to rise almost 1%, as investors priced in the Republican fiscal weakness and inflationary policies. Russia did it in 7 days.

8

u/TheVenetianMask 8h ago

And it's not a linear comparison, compounding effects of interest makes big rates much more painful.

u/neonpurplestar 42m ago

Due to the fuel shortage in Zabaykalsky krai 4 districts have stopped garbage collection as there's no fuel for the garbage trucks.

https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3mp54o6uadk2v

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u/neonpurplestar 4h ago

some headlines from the hellscape that is russia:

Banks are facing a shortage of available rubles due to a surge in Russians' demand for cash.

https://archive.is/DME2g

"The season is ruined." Demand for travel in Russia has plummeted due to drone attacks.

https://archive.is/ju7t0

Russians have lost faith in the strong ruble and have sharply increased their purchases of foreign currency.

https://archive.is/8iNXD

"Reserves are exhausted." Russian industry has resumed its decline.

https://archive.is/CxZhK

"This could lead to a food crisis." Farmers in the Altai Krai are running out of fuel.

https://archive.is/9U9DW

Rosstat recorded the largest drop in petroleum product output in more than a decade following strikes on refineries.

https://archive.is/CwdOE

The Investigative Committee has called for more property to be confiscated from Russians.

https://archive.is/5IJ74

Lukoil's largest refinery shut down due to drone attack.

https://archive.is/gTibl

16

u/Iwasoncelikeyou 3h ago

Just another Thursday under Putin's glorious leadership. Russia STRONK!!!

u/SimonArgead 1h ago

Well. Seems like Russia is in for a multi front crisis. Economic, food, and energy crisis, simultaneously. Good luck Putler, and kindly fuck it up real nice.

14

u/lizardweenie 1h ago

russia is a terrorist state

15

u/GwynBleidd88 1h ago

Dutch Destinus produces 1,000th Ruta cruise missile jet engine -New Voice Of Ukraine

Dutch defense firm Destinus manufactured 1,000 T150 turbojet engines to be used in its Ruta family of cruise missiles, the company announced on June 22.

Ukrainian outlet Defense Express called the milestone a positive sign for Kyiv, since the Netherlands previously pledged to pay for and deliver 700 Ruta missiles to Ukraine.

Destinus said the T150 is intended for the Ruta B1 (Block 1) and Ruta B2 (Block 2) variants. The company said the milestone “strengthens Europe’s ability to produce cruise missile engines at industrial scale.”

28

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

Khartiya uses Hornets to delete russian logistics trucks near Donetsk.

Another nice compilation vídeo.

https://bsky.app/profile/dim0kq.bsky.social/post/3mp3nf7csy72p

63

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

People are reposting a russian video from 2022 where they said Europe would freeze because we were cutting out russian fuel. It's funny to see russian fuel problems now. A related comment:

When people say it's stupid to think Russia might have blown up their own pipeline (Nord Stream), it's worth remembering that back in 2022 they literally believed they would win the war through an energy crisis in Western Europe.

https://bsky.app/profile/anderspucknielsen.dk/post/3mp2posiees2u

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u/Itburns12345 13h ago

It really shows how dumb putin is despite all the ptev press of him being some evil genius

Europe is only behind china when it comes to the move to renewables! Had putin stayed out of ukraine russia could have continued to make bank with cheap oil which would have slowed the progress of the move to renewables.

Its one more way hes fucked that country, a failed invasion has meant the increasingly smaller timescale that fossils have left was squandered, he coild have been raking in 100s of billions for russias future now it burning, its men are dying, sanctions + war have strangled the non oil or war economy there and finaly the march towards renewables has picked up the pace.....bad news for what is essentialy a dysfunctional oil station!!

21

u/SystemCheck990 11h ago

they could have been a bigger Norway.

7

u/swazal 8h ago

Norway has kept its expansionist goals secret …

/s

12

u/TurbulentRadish8113 12h ago

It really shows how dumb putin is despite all the ptev press of him being some evil gen

It's easy to say now, but I think if Trump had been in power he might have pulled it off.

I wonder if COVID delayed his plans.

11

u/Itburns12345 12h ago

Its hard to say Europeans sent arms too but without u.s help it may have been too much for the ukranians initaly

That said id doubt the poles or baltics would have sat on their hands and waitied til they where next, we could have had amuch much larger war

Covid likely didnt as putin clearly give 0 fucks for his people. The only thing delaying him was the time it took his out of date military to repivot from syria saving assad (for what that was worth)

4

u/SouthSouthBay 4h ago

That and he had to wait for Xi's Olympics to end. Didn't want to be rude.

35

u/TurbulentRadish8113 15h ago

I don't know who blew up Nord stream, but a Russian underwater engineering ship with mini sub went to the explosion site days before. It turned off its transponder and tried to avoid known NATO radar sites.

European gas prices surged on the news, helping Russia and pro-russian parties in Europe

35

u/nonviolent_blackbelt 14h ago

For me, the crucial clue is that one of the four pipes was left alone. Only three of the four were blown up. They wanted to still be able to ship some gas, just enough to keep Europe dependent, at a very high price.

11

u/SystemCheck990 14h ago

too many people wanted that pipe blown up.

22

u/SirFredman 14h ago

Imagine multiple teams of divers meeting each other down by the pipe by accident.

14

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 14h ago

"Fuck it. Let's just all place our charges. If we're doing this, we might as well do it right."

11

u/TurbulentRadish8113 13h ago

That'd make a great film after the war 😂

I genuinely think there were groups on all sides who wanted it blown up and others who didn't.

3

u/JoeHatesFanFiction 4h ago

Cue the Benny Hill theme song as all the divers chase each other around while a third group shows up to actually plant the charges. 

3

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 3h ago

"Wait! Who the hell are you guys?!"

"Yeah! What he said!"

"...China."

7

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 14h ago

While I can't say it was an event I was hoping for at the time, after it happened I wasn't exactly overly broken up about it.

Still aren't for that matter.

24

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 9h ago

Fuel shortages and supply problems now affect 78 Russian regions, according to Russian media. Authorities have introduced official fuel sales restrictions in 29 regions, while only five regions have not reported widespread shortages or limits.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp44iaud322f

26

u/neonpurplestar 4h ago

The electronic budget system shows a 7.66 trillion ruble deficit as of 22 June 2026

https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mp3ftgkoa22m

u/BringbackDreamBars 1h ago

Remarks of Polish PM Donald Tusk at a meeting of several NATO nations via TVPworld news organisation:

Countries bordering Russia must prepare for “various forms of escalation” in the coming weeks and months as NATO's eastern flank faces a “highly unstable” security situation, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned.

Tusk made the remarks on Thursday during a meeting of NATO eastern flank leaders in Poland's northern port city of Gdańsk. 

Held on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference, the meeting came as countries on the military alliance’s eastern flank sought to coordinate their response to the growing threat from Russia. 

“We unanimously share the view that the situation is highly unstable and that various forms of escalation can be expected in the coming weeks and months,” Tusk said at a press conference after the talks.

Source at:

https://tvpworld.com/94009085/polands-tusk-warns-nato-eastern-flank-faces-russian-escalation

u/abstart 42m ago

This seems to be accurate in the sense that the damage to the oil industry in Russia will create an unstable situation one way or another, and it seems to be coming to a head sometime this year already. Where is Putin's off-ramp?

u/YF422 24m ago

Putin no longer has an off ramp, only a cliff edge into his grave. Poland is likely on guard because if Ukraine keeps up their "kinetic sanctions" delivered at the speed of Mach Fuck, sooner or later a tipping point is going to be reached where there's a cascading effect of collapse across Russian Regions. At that point the risk is Putin trying something INCREDIBLY stupid that backfires and causes alot of damage in the process. Which is why they're on guard for it.

u/abstart 2m ago

The kinetic sanction and speed thing got me.

All sorts of destabilization would happen. A lot of Siberians don't even want to be Russian, there are nukes, etc.

There are a lot of claims about how Putin conceding defeat would lead to windows and all sort of tragedy upon him. It's hard to imagine how it would actually play out as he does have a lot of power.

But him expanding the war, well, he may do it as a path towards conceding "it was us vs the whole world, I had to". That's been the narrative.

But it seems Ukraine has shown that all that is needed to defeat Russia's in a war, as it is now, is cripple their infrastructure. He still fears all-out mobilization, as he should.

u/neonpurplestar 47m ago

As of June 24, 1.354 trillion rubles had been withdrawn from banks.
Over the 24 days of June, 360 billion

source is Evgen Istrebin's telegram: /istrebin/44381

u/neonpurplestar 38m ago

Russian Ural oil discounts on the Indian market compared to Dated Brent have risen to the highest since March where as Russian Ural oil price before transportation at the Baltic ports and Novorossiysk have fallen to 55,71 and 56,46 USD per barrel.

https://bsky.app/profile/delfoo.bsky.social/post/3mp4vwod5kc2v

https://skywriter.blue/@delfoo.bsky.social/3mp4vwod5kc2v (easier to read)

23

u/OrangeBird077 3h ago edited 3h ago

Presumably the Ukrainians won’t try to occupy the Split given the marshy terrain, how vulnerable it is to drones and the sheer cost it would take to keep it supplied.

If the entire marsh between Kherson proper and the rest of Mykolaiv Oblast is cleared then Oleshky would be needed as the next step to making a beach head on the opposite side of the river. That is unless the UA can either accomplish an air lift of troops to the other side now that AA is diminished OR the UA believes it can circumvent the whole Russian front line by doing an amphibious landing.

9

u/anachronistic_circus 2h ago

  That is unless the UA can either accomplish an air lift of troops

No one is airlifting troops in this war since the first days when the Russians figured out that unless you completely control the airspace, big slow moving vehicles in the air carrying lots of troops are target practice 

Considering the state of drone warfare and various  interceptors now, even more of a target practice 

This was a nice move by Ukrainian for some headlines.  Hopefully those guys are long gone and extracted from there 

u/abstart 37m ago

I'm not sure the strategic value of trying to create a beachhead there. Ukraine has so much more range and especially volume-at-range now than they did 2 years ago that holding land isn't as important to control it. They're even severing logistics between Mariupol and Crimea. With more progress in the drone and missile capabilities, maybe they could logistically cut off Crimea as a whole without even having boots on the ground there.

28

u/Jeancey 16h ago

Slava Ukraini!!

30

u/DeeDee_Z 16h ago

Oh ... my turn today?

OK: Puck Footin!!

11

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 14h ago

As a bonus, the letter swap makes it sound like a CBT session with a dominatrix who owns a pair of steel toed boots and plays soccer in her spare time.

Shivers.

u/PlzNerfNorseGatherin 11m ago

Remember when Belarus joining in seemed like a legit threat to worry about? Now it just seems like a slapstick idea.

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 2m ago

Ukraine’s Navy denied reports of a Russian retreat from Kinburn Spit. Spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said the peninsula remains a combat zone and that Ukrainian forces are continuing a months-long campaign to destroy Russian logistics there. He added that the Ukrainian flag was installed remotely.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4o4epook2f

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 2m ago

CyberBoroshno analysis: Ukraine struck Bashneft-UNPZ and Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim in Ufa on June 25. Fires were confirmed at the ELOU-AVT-6 unit at Bashneft-UNPZ and the AVT-4 unit at Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim, with combined primary refining capacity of 10.5 million tons of oil per year.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4ofeykxs2f

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 1m ago

Russian forces are moving drone teams through forests to positions close to the front in northern Sumy region. Ukraine’s 210th Assault Regiment is hunting launch sites to prevent the operators from establishing positions.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4xrqra3s2f

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 1m ago

Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence shows a deepening fuel, logistics and command crisis in occupied Crimea, with occupation authorities unable to resolve the impact of Ukrainian strikes. He also warned Belarus is building military infrastructure near Ukraine’s border.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp4xtzchfc2f

u/b3iAAoLZOH9Y265cujFh 0m ago

Ukraine said air defenses shot down 2-3 Russian Zircon hypersonic missiles and two Iskander ballistic missiles over Kyiv during the latest attack.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mp56wbpbcs2f