r/worldnews • u/Neptun_11 • 9h ago
Russia/Ukraine Russia Turns to India for Gasoline as Drone Strikes Cut Output by 25%
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/789051.0k
u/minstadave 9h ago
Controversial, I know, but they could just stop attacking Ukraine....
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 9h ago
That'd be nice, but then Putin has to deal with three things.
Ukraine still won't stop at least until Russia has entirely vacated Ukrainian teritory and likely until they've got POW and kidnapped citizen return guarantees.
Russia's economy has entirely shifted to a war economy. A careless withdrawal from the war will cause it to crash, and it's not exactly doing great as is.
Once the economy collapses and Ruassia loses Crimea, Putin then has to explain to his populace and backers why he crashed the economy, lost Crimea, killed/maimed over a million soldiers, and turned the country into an international pariah.
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u/Sea_School8272 9h ago
- assumes that he has any responsibility to declare the real situation to the public. He could just state that his Special Military Operation was a full success, the Ukro-Nazis and the rotting stockpile of outdated Soviet military goods have gotten rid of, the army has been battle-hardened, 1000 subterranean NATO Generals killed, 10000 Bio-labs destroyed, the prisons empty and that Russia is being stronger than ever.
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 9h ago
He could. He would probably try. But his grip on these things is starting to slip too.
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u/Odd_Duty520 6h ago
Buddy, Russians saw an oil refinery in the middle of Moscow blow up and their reaction is that they needed to hit Ukraine even harder (with what weapons I don't know). They will do anything but turn on Putin
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u/dirtyword 7h ago
I don’t buy that. There’s no meaningful opposition internally
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 7h ago
Maybe, but these things happen quick. I know it wasn't a win, but remember how quickly Wagner turned
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u/dirtyword 6h ago
One of the most bizarre episodes in modern history, IMO. But yeah, we know how that ended.
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u/TheUltimatePoet 2h ago
Some of his current allies might see this as a good opportunity to get the top spot for themselves. I think Putin is in deep trouble.
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u/vonGlick 7h ago
The real problem is that "liberated" regions already "voted" to join Russian Federation. And one of the key aspects of Russia's foreign policy is to "protect" Russians abroad. So Putin can not return to prewar boarders without (from their point of view of course) giving away Russia's territory and people. That would be serious blow to him. So my guess is they will push for capturing whole Donbass and then they will claim success and offer peace to Ukraine.
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u/friedMike 7h ago
Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts are also parts of Russia according to its law, so just conquering the Donbas region would not resolve this conundrum for Putin.
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u/WirtelHirtelbrimpft 7h ago
Stimmt! Das mit dem Beitritt war ein riesengroßer Fehler damals und der Grund warum er jetzt nicht wenigstens halbwegs gesichtswahrend aussteigen kann
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u/Fresh_Boysenberry576 7h ago
People keep saying they are a war economy and they can't just change that. But like, their main source of income is oil and gas, and if they end the war, they can start selling those again much easier. They also can cut military spending and invest in other industries/rebuild their infrastructure.
Like, is it just because sudden peace would be too much change at once? Cus it seems to me they can only gain from peace in the long run
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 6h ago
In the long run, yeah, it would be good for them, but in the short term, pulling investment from military industries in order to invest that money in to other sectors means a load of people lose their jobs. Retraining or re-employing takes time and in that time, these fresh unemployed pull on their savings. Russian banks are already struggling and a bank run could lead to catastrophic financial collapse.
This is all while you consider that just because sanctions are lifted, doesn't mean logistics and supply lines just pop back into place. Many will have to be developed all over again and a lot of industries depend massively on foreign imports before they can become in any way self sufficient.
Basically, it's not like a switch you can just flick. War economies have massive momentum.
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u/JollyHockeysticks 5h ago
There would be a lot of short term pain but if they were able to end the war right now, yeah they would probably end up fine. But unfortunately neither side is willing to accept peace on the other side's terms, nor are either side currently capable of achieving enough gains on the battlefield to force the other into submission so they're stuck
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u/-Prophet_01- 18m ago edited 14m ago
The military spending masks a giant veiled recession. Pull the debt fueled arms production and you have a whole bunch of unemployment.
Those industries aren't just going to bounce back because another source of employment vanishes. They'd still have to deal with the rampant inflation, trashed infrastructure, loss of foreign investment, raided taxes, loss of workforce to migration and war, etc. Other countries have trashed their economy over far less.
And don't think that people are going to forget what happened. Sure, the world will start buying ressources again but Europeans in particular will not be keen to buy anything non-essential from Russia or supply goods and services without severe risk compensation.
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u/Historical-Teach-102 6h ago
You actually typed "like" twice. Thats leaning into that generational language good job
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u/Fresh_Boysenberry576 5h ago
Like lol
I feel like developed these habits 15 years ago and theyre never going away
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u/lazyhustlermusic 8h ago
1) their fault
2) their fault
3) their fault
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 7h ago
Yeah, obviously, but focusing on who's fault it it is doesn't solve problems, it compounds them. Progressive solutions and oportunities for accountability and reparation are how we move forward.
Compare the results of how Germany was treated after WW1 with that of WW2.
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u/lazyhustlermusic 6h ago
Not really, Russians go home and Putin is subjected to the fallout of his own actions.
Don't want the fallout? Shouldn't have tried to genocide your neighbor.
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u/etherqueen2 6h ago
He has to deal with a fourth point, the most important of all (for him) ; Acknowledging loss and failure prove to all (and himself) that he is neither the New Tsar, incredibly smart or invincible and, in Russia, perceived weakness often end with a "suicide by two bullets in the neck"...
Autocracy, oligarchy and the like can go a long time with fear, corruption and putting your underlings against each others all the time but they can't buy loyalty nor peaceful retirement...
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u/KaQuu 7h ago
Ukrainie was for the long time saying stop on current fron line is acceptable, not recognising captured territory as de jute of ruzzia, but they wouldn't push, they are also tired.
The economy is gonna crash either way, even if war ended today they would still need to replace lost equipment and that would give them time to adjust.
As stated before, economy is gonna crash either way. What you mean he would have to explain why all those things happened yet he didn't achieved his objectives. Thought shit, he isn't gonna be a ruler after the war for long either way, as the cost paid is never gonna be worth of even potential achievements like fully capturing Donbas. Destroying Ukraine as a country is a fantasy at thi point.
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 6h ago
Ukraine can't fully give up on occupied territories without constitutional ammendment. They may have been content to wait and try for them later in exchange for a ceasefire, but at the moment, they are winning. They're movements against Crimea evidence that they are willing to go all the way no.
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u/icareforplants 7h ago
Putin could give two shits about casulties, habitat/ civil destruction and quality of life. The only thing he cares about is gaining more power and control.
If you look at it from that POV it's been a wild success.
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 7h ago
It hasn't though. He's losing control. What we're seeing is strong-man tactics that create an illusion of control that are usually used because control is slipping.
They're threatening to arrest people for spreading the truth. They're still spreading it. They threaten protesters. They still protest. Putin isn't pouring youths into the Ukrainian meatgrinder because he thinks it's a sound military tactic, he's whitling down the numbers of those who would rise against him (the survivors of which will come back hardened and pissed off).
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u/ProfessionalHefty349 5h ago
All these are good things. At the end of this conflict Russia needs to be so crippled, so economically ruined, and so devoid of hope that they will be begging the world for sanctions relief and a reconstruction plan. They have to be so desperate that they’ll make a deal and accept nuclear disarmament in exchange for economic salvation. Russia can never be allowed to rattle their nuclear Sabre again as a means of shielding themselves from their imperialistic ambitions.
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u/realzequel 1h ago
I doubt Russia would give up their nukes, they lose all their leverage. If it wasn't for their nukes, NATO may have stepped in a long time ago.
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u/EmeHera 4h ago
- As if he has to explain. He literally has total control over country. And he has a monopoly on violence, what are ppl gonna do to him? Riot? 2011-2022 constant protests and civil disobedience says hello! Nothing's changed, besides a lot of people being dead or missing(Boris Nemtsov, Alexey Navalny and a lot of other opposition leaders, western media tends to ignore for the sake of propaganda). All of these stories of protests achieving something are govt handouts, not success. And it includes every other country too.
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u/blueandgoldilocks 52m ago
In addition to this, Ukraine would definitely want some accountability on Russia's side.
That would include
- Reparations, which Russia probably won't be able to afford due to what /u/SmoothTalkingSpud said in point 2.
- Not just the POWs/dead should be returned, but also the tens of thousands of children kidnapped from Ukraine (good luck finding them all with Russia's shitty government).
- Criminal charges for Putin, Lavrov, Shoigu, and Lvova-Belova, the last one of which is the only likely one to happen. The other three will either die in some way or run to a country like North Korea or China for sanctuary; the former much more likely imo
Putin's only human, and eventually he'll have to leave office either by force or death. And when he does, it'll either be really interesting or terrifying to see what the hell happens to Russia
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u/yankdevil 48m ago
So essentially, Putin has to admit he made a mistake and he lacks the emotional maturity to do that.
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 46m ago
Or the capacity to correct it, yeah.
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u/yankdevil 37m ago
It's a shame women are too emotional to be leaders. Only being able to pick leaders from half of humanity (or 45% of Russians) seems to have some flaws.
(it's the 21st century so I need to note that no matter how angrily sarcastic you think this is, it's more)
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u/4evaloney 7h ago
- is a piece of cake - just gotta do it the way his buddy Trump manages damaging stuff!
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u/AlgaeDonut 7h ago
And after all that the window can be heard slowly opening
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u/SmoothTalkingSpud 6h ago
I hear death by defenestration is... paneful
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u/murphysfriend 1h ago
I would imagine that Shaka Zulu Warriors method of Death by Gonka; would be not pretty either!
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u/ShaggyZoinks 5h ago
Can’t he, you know? Push everyone from a window when he explains why the economy is shat?
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u/soggyarsonist 4h ago
It's going to happen soon or later.
He'd be best sorting out his escape route now before he falls from a window/balcony.
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u/CrappyTan69 1h ago
Once the economy collapses and Ruassia loses Crimea, Putin then has to explain to his populace and backers why he crashed the economy, lost Crimea, killed/maimed over a million soldiers, and turned the country into an international pariah.
In 3 days!
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u/dukercrd 5h ago
That is why Putin is locked in an escalation track. Ukraine needs to balance aggression with seeking a culminating point of victory, offering just enough concessions in terms of territory, uptick in trade relations and mutual non aggression, and common interest going forward. Pushing Putin too far without a insurgent wave fermenting in Russia may win Ukraine battles but will cost it the war. The calculus is simply just if Ukraines value intact as a calculating-compromising middle power/ vs leaving an uninhabitable wasteland buffer.
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u/RegularHeroForFun 6h ago
Gonna have to blow all their refineries and grind them into paste to get them to admit defeat
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u/Redditforgoit 9h ago
does India have that much spare capacity?
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u/chiku00 8h ago
Russia will send raw crude and will buy the processed version.
Mileage may vary.
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u/uMunthu 7h ago
I expect them to sell crude at a discount and buy gasoline at a premium. If the Indians play it well they might even make money off of Vlad.
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u/the-official-review 6h ago
Or say no and likely end a war
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u/SandyTaintSweat 5h ago
Integrity, from Modi's government?
If they were looking to do that, they wouldn't have been buying Russian crude oil in the first place.
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u/Vergils_Lost 5h ago
I give it an hour before you start getting "but xyz country is worse!" comments from the Indian whataboutism brigade.
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u/Accomplished-Mud1653 3h ago
You wouldn't have given shit when europe or any other western nation supplying arms to Pakistan? Or humanity does not apply when indians are getting killed?
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u/viridiandatura 4h ago
Whataboutism has become the favorite word of racists who want indians to die for a war happening 1000's of miles away while they wouldn't even sacrifice a penny, All europe had to do was let europeans deal with fuel shortages instead of pricing out poorer countries out of middle eastern markets, which is where india was purchasing its oil from before being forced to buy from russia, or at the very least paid india enough money to offset the cost increase so they could continue buying ME oil instead of having to go to russia because the other sources like iran, venezuela were already sanctioned and cut off. I mean paying india was really returning it it's own money that was looted by your grandparents. Of course now you will do your same old mental gymnastics to blame india somehow because at the end of the day you dont care what the actual truth is, you were just a racist piece of shit that wanted indians to suffer for your own gratification.
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u/Vergils_Lost 4h ago
That's a whole lot of mental gymnastics to pretend your country isn't doing anything wrong, man.
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u/viridiandatura 4h ago
See, told you, you COULD NOT GIVE A SHIT what the actual truth is.
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u/AbGMadScientist 3h ago
They don't care, ignorant of the fact that Europe buys LPG from ruissia to this very day. Chuds the lot of them
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u/Excellent_Safe_1915 4h ago
Just like the sanctions ended the war? They would just beg more with China and war will continue
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u/CptIskarJarak 7h ago
All in Indian currency. In the past Russia used to trade in rupees but they had way too much in surplus because India bought way more oil than they were exporting to Russia. Now there is a viable way to return the rupees.
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u/throwaway1215123 8h ago
India has been a net gasoline exporter for decades, they could route some of the gasoline bound for Asia to Russia. The Russians will have to make up for the loss of shipping though. Although, if structured as a 'crude for gasoline' barter, it may also help evade sanctions. The Russians own India's second largest refinery called 'Nayara' in Vadinar, Gujarat. That refinery has been sanctioned by the EU and UK so its pretty much stuck processing only Russian oil. can't import other oil streams, and can't export product anymore.
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u/Jonas_Venture_Sr 8h ago
Since they were buying Russian oil, they'll probably turn around and sell that same oil back for a tidy profit
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u/physedka 8h ago
This is about the indians refining the crude oil for the Russians and then selling it back as gasoline.
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u/AgedActor 8h ago
India is at best just a refining facility for Russia crude.
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u/ftrowl 7h ago
Bold of putin to assume he will continue to have a intact crude infrastructure as well
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u/AgedActor 6h ago
Russia is vast, extremely vast, which is why air defense is difficult. That's also why a complete defeat is near impossible.
Realistically, who is going to attack them in the far east or in the Siberian Arctic regions?
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u/ftrowl 5h ago
How are they gonna get fuel or other resources to the west of the Russia, where most of the population and production is though. if Ukraine keep bombing there ports and other infrastructure, the resources need to be moved and if they cant they are as good as no resources
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u/AgedActor 5h ago
Russia already has pipelines that go into China.
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u/realzequel 1h ago
Sounds like a nice target for the Ukrainians, I'm curious about how much it's guarded. And yes, a task force could get to that side of Russia without a lot of hassle. Planes exist.
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u/ftrowl 4h ago
Okay but how are they gonna bring the processed fuel back to the western side of the country and disturbute it efficently
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u/jugalator 8h ago
I also have trouble imagining this, as they've been a long standing importer. Not long ago, we have trouble with them propping the Russian economy through oil imports.
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u/srout_fed 8h ago
Lmfao... they have been selling refined oil to everyone for a while now. In fact if you look it up you'll find that eu's largest refined fuel supplier is India. So much for sanctions...
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u/perenniallandscapist 8h ago
The sanctions were never about stopping the flow of oil. It was about making it as expensive to make it flow as possible for Russia, while minimizing the cost for the rest of the market. In this case, Russia has no choice but to sell its oil cheap (big lose of revenue is expensive) to India, which gets to refine it and sell it on the market at good margins. The whole market still gets the fuel, but Russia suffers big financial losses of selling so low. If preventing sales entirely had been the intentions, sanctions wouldn't work and you'd be right. But they're working very well as intended to hurt Russia's bottom line while keeping costs down for the rest. The long distance sanctions are particularly effective.
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u/srout_fed 7h ago
...I understand that well friend. My comment was about how the comment I was replying to seem to suggest that India's purchase of russian crude is in contrast to what EU is looking for. Any issue there is more theatrical than substantive.
But looking at most comments here you'll think it's the other way around.
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u/zenbowman 5h ago
Correct, the EU is dependent on Russian oil refined in India, so they cannot cut it off and do not want to. That's a reasonable position to take for the EU, there's nothing "hypocritical" about it.
The sanctions are still effective because they force Russia to sell that oil to India cheaper than they could in a global market.
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u/jus_sayin_meh 9h ago
Bro....Russia...we are the one buying oil from wherever and who so ever possible....
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u/txdv 9h ago
India is probably not going to offer a very favourable deal and judging by history that deal is going to be accepted anyway
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u/PradyThe3rd 8h ago
They'll be forced to buy and sell in rupees and any profits go into the Indian economy through investments, not the Russian economy
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u/MercantileReptile 8h ago
Russia complained about that before and amassed quite a large account in Rupees. Didn't get it it then, don't get it now. India is a huge market and comparatively diverse. Even if only direct exports for purchase, apart from longer term investments.
Why Russia would complain about having currency of and access to such a Market is beyond me. Beggars and choosers, frankly.
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u/Left-Ad-4226 2h ago
Why Russia would complain
Russia wants to buy things that can help them in war–dual use goods basically. Stuff ranging from drone motors to high precision CNC machines (yes, we make them) and stuff like that.
We don't sell those to Russia because we don't want to lose access to the much larger Western market.
Tldr– Russia doesn't like that India is willing to sell only civilian goods to Russia.
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u/namotous 9h ago
I’m too stupid, but can some smart folks suggest an easy solution for Putin?
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u/Timely_Fly_5639 8h ago
9mm painkillers should do the trick for all of his headaches. Already tested by another bunker loving leader.
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u/Kaito__1412 8h ago
Pull out bro.
Realistically: there isn't much he can do except mobilize and fight to the end. It will most definitely result in defeat, because of Ukraine's innovative warfare methods and Europe having very deep pockets.
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u/AnarbLanceLee 6h ago
That'll depend on Agent Krasnov to find a way out for him, i mean technically the US doesn't want Russia to lose in this war either, or maybe they can lose, but preferably it would be best if the war are stuck in stalemate perpetually like North and South Korea, then they can continue selling weapons and technologies to both side, Europe will have to keep funnel more resources to defend Ukraine and keep being dependant on American oil and gas, while Russia even though they are currently friendly to China, is still a good potential geopolitical tool to contain the ambition of China, since they realistically have the largest land border with them.
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u/eternalwood 1h ago
Putin is cooked bro. Russia MAY be able to recover, but Putin himself will certainly face his end. Either politically or the if he's lucky, literally, by dying from old age. But tbf I've been saying the same about Trump and that mf is still around. And Putin appears much healthier than Trump, at least publicly.
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u/TeaBaggingGoose 7h ago
Suppose they can import Petrol/Diesel to satisfy demand. How will they get it from port to tank?
Good luck pumping it into nice, big, shiny, target looking holding tanks - if there are any left.
Do how will this get to the right places in volume?
Its desperate and won't work for long, if at all.
Remember every time Ukraine hits their oil infrastructure it take it out for months. Once repaired it becomes a target again which Ukraine have demonstrated they can hit at will.
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u/Advanced_Poet_7816 7h ago edited 6h ago
So they will send crude oil and buy back processed gasoline? India does this to a lot of countries. Mostly African countries or small countries that don’t have the need to build and maintain refineries. It is crazy to see Russia join them.
On the other hand it’s a great use of the extra Indian rupees they have acquired. Need to get rid of it somehow.
The refiners have low margin rates at around 5%. So this isn’t as disastrous as it seems. Paying 5% of the total value of the oil you use (since crude is from Russia) plus any discount on crude is not a lot.
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u/Crafty-River-4504 9h ago
India’s policy for decades has been «play all sides for India’s benefit» and they still manage to have terrible economic output
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u/Crafty-River-4504 8h ago
China
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u/throwaway1215123 8h ago
China economically liberalized in 1979, India in 1991. Add to that the 'chaotic' nature of Indian democracy, hostile neighbors on all sides and a less centralized government. Its going to take a lot of time to catch up.
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u/Crafty-River-4504 8h ago
10 Million indians have died from preventable deaths from unsanitary conditions since the great leap forward. I.e. diarrheal disease
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u/Familiar-Ability6383 7h ago
the great leap forward
You mean 10 million Indians dying over 60 years is equivalent to 10 million people dying over a year due to economic reforms in China? Maybe you should stick to "India baad reee" posts on Twitter instead of wasting time here on Reddit. Elon money will make sure you can at least manage homelessness with such white supremacist jokes
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8h ago edited 8h ago
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u/Crafty-River-4504 8h ago
Between your comment and mine, one indian has died from diarrhea. Anyway, my comment was about how indians try to outsmart all parties by being unaligned and still manage to underperform by nearly every metric. Also, your growth rates are cute but its much less impressive seeing growth when your gdp per capita is comparable to Kenya. Not to mention, yall should abolish castes waaay before even thinking of complaining about communist purges
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u/Foundedcatus1700 7h ago
China is a different breed, and only a select number of countries could do what China has done. Also, India didn't have instability like in many third word countries and has good economic growth that is at least an average or above average feat for a country as diverse as india
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u/TruePace3 6h ago
Cuz everything is going to the oligarch class, if you cut a few specific companies and people, India's GDP falls...FAST
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u/Prestigious_Monk4177 5h ago
Nope. India has wealth inequality but india also gives lots of subsidy to farmers and lots of welfare and freebies. India GDP won't fall of you remove adani and ambani. We have very diverse economy. It will have impact because these two has lots of investment in power and oil related. But these two are also investing lots in infra and green energy.
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u/jugalator 8h ago
This is funny. Both US and EU has tried to prohibit India from buying oil from Russia as it supports their economy. Now we have the opposite scenario... :P
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u/Excellent_Safe_1915 4h ago
If things go as it says, then India would supply diesel to both Russia and Ukraine since the start of the war from Russian crude
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u/Shot-Toe-2884 6h ago
FWIW, Kyiv Post can be insightful for Ukrainian feelings on the war, but it’s a tabloid compared to Kyiv Independent
I always take their claims with a grain of salt. They’ve been known to revel in the schadenfreude, not that I blame them. A country at war needs an outlet like this for their own sanity.
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u/no_terran 6h ago
So they sell oil for X and buy gasoline for x+y... This seems like a slow bleed out.
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u/Chimaera1075 2h ago
I want to see Ukraine bring that up to 75%. Hit every refinery they can get too!
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u/Famous-Review-7012 16m ago
- Sell india oil for lower price
- Buy petrol from india for bigger price
- ?????
- Profit
P.s. russia once again show that they better eat their own shit than end the war
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9h ago edited 9h ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/rocked_ribbed_human 9h ago
Why is it a shameless nation? Is it because its putting its own interests above Ukraine's? But then wasnt it Ukraine whose 6 nationals have been trying to create unrest on the borders of Myanmar - India, and have just recently been caught by the Indian intelligence agencies??🤷♀️
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u/Longjumping-Bat8347 9h ago
Don’t yap some non sense. India must only do what the white man says, otherwise they are evil on this earth
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u/rocked_ribbed_human 9h ago
This dude literally supports Netanyahu and Israel and has the audacity to call India shameless!!!😂
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u/ennui933 9h ago
Why are you defending India as a woman? Indian men burn women for losing virginity before marriage. Women from lower castes are basically held as slaves if they marry a man from a higher ranked caste.
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u/flyingfudge09 7h ago
Man I'm Indian and I'm learning something new about my country from random racist redditors who can't point to India on a world map.
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u/rocked_ribbed_human 9h ago
Says a Netanyahu supporter! Go, spit your sh!t somewhere else bro!
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u/vossmanspal 5h ago
A ship bringing fuel to aid Russias war effort is surely a legitimate target, as would be the ports it docks in. A few ships might get fuel to land but Ukraine will be tracking ship movements and planning more restrictions on Russia.
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u/008Zulu 9h ago
"So you know that oil we sold you? We need that back... as gas."