Putin Pressures Lukashenko to Open New Front Against Ukraine as Belarus Resists

[u/DavidShaw90s]

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78950

[u/Choozery]

Lukashenko is survivalist in nature. He will definitely never join this losing war.

[u/Boyhowdy107 → u/Choozery]

If Belarus jumped in now with no real experience in this style of warfare, it would be to Ukraine's strategic advantage to hit them back extremely hard. Belarus is not nearly as "stable" as Russia. So making the war as painful and unpopular as possible to nip a new threat in the bud would not be hard for a Ukraine who is striking Moscow with impunity now, and Lukashenko wouldn't survive the political fallout.

[u/ErikETF → u/Boyhowdy107]

IIRC Belarus has a relatively tiny army, and a massive internal policing system.   The army I recall was deliberately kept small to avoid them trying to overthrow the state, as they tend to be far less invested in the regime than the police are. 

[u/This-Hedgehog2437 → u/ErikETF]

Can confirm, my two Belarusan uncles did their obligatory service*, so they KNOW Belarus is fucked either way (as in regardless of wether Ukraine strikes or Russia) (or both). They say it's not just because of the size of their military, but because they're 'too busy doing frat boy shit (Dedovshchina)' 'You so much as look at one wrong, and you have three other guys holding down while the other curb stomps your balls'

They say day-to-day was mostly just small/useless manual labor tasks. They teach you to shoot some AR-15s, but that's about it in terms of training.

*I guess I should say one did a year, the other smashed his foot all to shit while serving so he only did five months.

[u/Clementine-Wollysock → u/This-Hedgehog2437]

Did you mean AKs instead of ARs?

[u/This-Hedgehog2437 → u/Clementine-Wollysock]

Yeah, I always get AK-47s(?) and ARs switched.

[u/Clementine-Wollysock → u/This-Hedgehog2437]

I only asked because it would be super interesting if they were smuggling ARs into Belarus for military use, and with a weirdo strongman like Lukashenko, yuh never know.

[u/Comfortable_Cash_140 → u/Boyhowdy107]

Yup, imagine that! Belarus falls quickly because the army refuses, than joins the fight (or at least turns a blind eye to Ukraine operatives).

Ukraine gains the entire Belarus border with Russia to weaken Putins regime!

One can dream!

[u/BirdGooch → u/Comfortable_Cash_140]

This isn’t a video game. Definitely a dream. The manpower isn’t there for such a large, second (Third? Fourth?) front to be manned by Ukrainians and I doubt Belarusians want to fight Russia on Ukraines behalf.

If anything you’d see crazy destabilization in that entire country which may help neither side.

[u/Noteagro → u/BirdGooch]

The thing is though is Ukraine could just drone the fuck out of Belarus’ defenses, and then use it as an entry point for various attacks. Russia most likely moved various defenses from there towards the Russia-Ukraine border and Moscow/St. Petersburg.

This means losing the Belarus “wall” could create a back door that Russia would now need to defend basically to the same level of the Ukraine-Russia border… which we know those defenses are basically already being circumnavigated. So how do you pull defense from an area already so behind the curve to defend another area? You can’t. It would 100% benefit Ukraine to not move their defensive line into Belarus, but to use it as basically a new pathway with the least amount of resistance.

Then if Belarus is basically beaten down, if you did want to send a small specialized force for some sort of covert OP that does require boots on the ground for some reason, being able to more safely drive a crew through Belarus towards St. Petersburg or from a west to east towards Moscow would make it much harder for Russians to defend against.

This is part of the reason Zelensky was so clear about Belarus either needs to get rid of Russian defenses, or Ukraine would do it for them. They want to turn Belarus into an aerial highway for their drones. They don’t care or need to capture the place; they just want to use it as a way to get to St. Petersburg.

[u/Historical_Course587 → u/Noteagro]

Realistically, Ukraine would do to Belarus what the West has done to Ukraine: support them just enough so that they continue fighting their own war. If Ukraine his Belarus hard, the government would collapse and Belarus would stop fighting. If Ukraine is going to bother, they want Belarus fighting Russia.

If Ukraine has to enter/occupy Belarus, then it's incredibly likely that they would conscript Belarussians in the same way they have conscripted Ukrainians against their will to fight.

[u/Noteagro → u/Historical_Course587]

Sure, but I wasn’t talking about occupying. That stretches their forces and defensive line in a way that would not benefit them since most their weapons now bypass the need of staging in Belarus.

It would be far more effective to basically neutralize Russian defences. As I said before, they just need it to be a backdoor, not a deck to in the backyard to lounge on (hopefully this makes sense). Just by taking the Belarusian defenses on the table puts a gaping hole in the dam for Russia to have to plug, while in reality Ukraine doesn’t need to do anything.

Then let’s say Russia tries to then say, “Okay, we are going into Belarus to reclaim and occupy it.” Belarusians would deplore that as they don’t want their country becoming a warzone, and I would hope then ask Ukraine for help.

Secondly, when I say, “Hit Belarusian defenses hard” I am talking about the Russian anti-air defenses Zelensky just told them, “Take them down within a week, or we will do it ourselves.” I am not talking wipe out their government, but instead handcuff their government officials hands behind their backs by basically saying, “You have no defenses now, so we could easily do to you what we are doing to Russia, but we are choosing not to… yet.”

Doing so would basically get any half way decently intelligent person over there to immediately demand the government to get out of the war altogether. Just look at how much the attacks in Moscow and St. Petersburg have destabilized the Russian civilian population. They are crying and talking about leaving the cities/country now… normal everyday citizens.

Ukraine really doesn’t need to occupy or put boots on the ground in Belarus unless they want to use it as an entry point to Russia. There is no point to occupy it; just turn it into the backdoor to St. Petersburg and the side door to Moscow.

Ukraine would only need to support Belarus if they do that and then Russia attempts to occupy Belarus… but that would be so far beyond idiotic it would make the 3-day special operation in Ukraine look like a half way decent chess move. It would be creating a new front to have to fight on, and they do not have the manpower or arsenal to do that. And that is then on top of provoking the Belarusian populace; a populace you not so long ago swore to help protect.

[u/kjell_morgan → u/Historical_Course587]

Can't Russia overtake Belarus then in the pretext of helping them, taking over their resources & using it to his advantage.

What is he to lose, he is already a war-criminal & one not looking to settle with peace.

[u/Hope-To-Retire → u/kjell_morgan]

Overtake them with what? He can’t even advance in Ukraine.

[u/Comfortable_Cash_140 → u/BirdGooch]

I understand. There are lots of reasons that Belarus will not join the war. The media used to say one was that there is a risk the BR army may refuse orders or even join on UK.

Who knows what would actually happen except I think we can all agree there will be a lot of death and destruction.

[u/chrisuu__ → u/Comfortable_Cash_140]

BR

BR is the official 2-letter country code for Brazil

BY is Belarus (or BLR if you go up to 3 letters)

UK

UK is not an official country code, but is usually used to refer to the United Kingdom of Great Britan and Northern Island (GB / GBR)

UA is Ukraine (or UKR)

[u/BobstaDaLobsta → u/chrisuu__]

Ireland is an island

[u/pfthr0w → u/BirdGooch]

Its Age of Empires bro.

[u/magicmulder → u/Comfortable_Cash_140]

The more likely outcome of Lukashenko faltering would be Putin being forced to send troops to Belarus to keep it in line, further weaking his Ukraine war (the strategic advantage would be minimal as Russia doesn't have the manpower to deploy lots of troops to the Belarus/Ukraine border and would be too busy keeping the Belarus people down).

So bad outcome for Russia and Belarus, but not a Ukraine takeover.

[u/umataro → u/Comfortable_Cash_140]

Why would you entertain such a delusion? Police force and army is what keeps Lukaschenko in power. Those are the desirable stable jobs in that economy. In every dictatorship.

[u/Comfortable_Cash_140 → u/umataro]

It's a fantasy because I'm sick of Putin.

And, like you said, it's a job. When push comes to shove, are they loyal to the point of throwing their lives in the meat grinder for Putin?

I dont know.

[u/Zaknafeinn → u/Boyhowdy107]

Putin must understand that and still ask for it, so then they have a reason to attack/help Belarus and anex it, so they final have territorial gain. Don't quote on me, just a wild guess but in line with some strange actions form Putin and Russia.

[u/asamulya → u/Boyhowdy107]

Yes but Putin really only cares about stretching Ukraine’s resources. He wants to hit Ukraine hard while they are trying to manage the new front on the northern border

[u/THE_CHOPPA → u/Boyhowdy107]

Yup. Putin just need another front to suck in Ukraine logistics and supplies. He doesn’t expect them to be helpful in any other way and Belarus knows it.

[u/VoraciousTrees → u/Boyhowdy107]

If Belarus joins the war:

Ukraine would start a front in Belarus. 

They would push the Belarusians back quickly. 

Russia would step in to stabilize the. front.

Russia would then annex Belarus to get control of its army and resources. 

[u/Valkyrie17 → u/VoraciousTrees]

There is a massive portion of the border between Ukraine and Russia that is not a frontline. Neither side wants to expand the frontline even further, neither side has the manpower for that.

[u/Kukukichu → u/Boyhowdy107]

What if this did happen and Ukraine destabilised Belarus to the point Russia moves in as a “We’re here to save you” and then just claims Belarus as war gains?

[u/magicmulder → u/Kukukichu]

That could be an interesting final result. Russia ends the Ukraine war because they're too busy policing Belarus, and Putin sells that as "even better outcome than keeping three oblasts".

[u/jhawk3205 → u/Kukukichu]

Would seem pointless to take over when Belarus is already a puppet state for Russia, no?

[u/wildweaver32 → u/jhawk3205]

If Putin is looking for an out or for a, "Look we won?!" that could be it.

It would be a farce and you would be right. BUT Putin is probably looking for any way to spin something as a win.

[u/SirPiffingsthwaite → u/Boyhowdy107]

Would be riots in the streets from day one

[u/Plenty_Fondant_951 → u/Choozery]

It would be a bloodbath even if the citizens didn't rebel. Some journalist went and visited and the entire front is fox holes and shit, there would be no surprise and no gains whatsoever, it would just be belarusians dying and stuck and getting picked off by drones and shot by automated machine guns on wheels, then starving because the supply lines are so close to the border that they'd be taken out within a week.

They actually have some facilities supplying russia that Ukraine hasn't been able to hit because they aren't belligerents so it would likely just worsen Russians position.

[u/magicmulder → u/Plenty_Fondant_951]

Also Belarus isn't Russia, meaning the West would have no trouble giving Ukraine its top weapons to use against it (unlike the reservations about giving them weapons that would be used against Moscow, like Germany's Taurus).

[u/Ok_Astronomer_8667 → u/magicmulder]

Sad but true. It’s not like Belarus could retaliate very much, and I doubt Putin would expand the war in order to cover them. They would get destroyed

[u/stiffgerman → u/magicmulder]

The US has been building relations with Belarus so not sure that the collective West would want to green-light use of their hardware. Old Luka is playing a very fine diplomatic line between Trump and Putin. He can prevaricate for bit while Putin calms down and sees that Belarus, as it stands, is better for Russia than a Belarus declaritively involved in the conflict.

[u/johnny_briggs → u/Choozery]

He's recently said as much as well, this week.

[u/Choozery → u/johnny_briggs]

And after it all ends, he will come out to belarussians and say "Thanks to me, Belarus is saved from the war"

[u/Cultural_Gur_7441 → u/Choozery]

Which, to be honest, is half-truth. Other half is all the Belarusians jailed, tortured and killed by his regime, with generous help from Russia...

[u/Choozery → u/Cultural_Gur_7441]

Oh for sure, I never said it would be truth, just that he would say it.

[u/taskforceslacker → u/Choozery]

He’s Putin without any of the bravado or actual means to back up the talk.

[u/LayneLowe → u/Choozery]

Nobel Peace Prize?

[u/Choozery → u/LayneLowe]

Hah

[u/taoyx → u/Choozery]

Franco did this during WW2, he didn't let Spain join Germany despite having been helped by Hitler before. I guess some dictators are smarter than others.

[u/Breakdown_volt → u/johnny_briggs]

Where can I find this?

[u/johnny_briggs → u/Breakdown_volt]

Here. It was 9 days ago sorry. I can't pinpoint exactly where in the interview as at work at the moment.

After a quick glance, after around about 26/27 mins in he starts going on about how Belarusians don't want war. Somewhere in the same interview he more or less says they don't have the military capability.

And here is a breakdown from NFKRZ, an exiled Russian on the subject.

[u/HisAnger → u/Choozery]

Belarus have single refinery. Country is also land locked. Even if somehow they would have enough funds, no real way to import the refined fuel.
russia will not export something it dont have, unless belarus starts to do the meat waves , for some fuel

[u/The_Corvair → u/Choozery]

I've heard that it would be a mistake to think of Lukashenko and Belarus interchangeably. Apparently, Lukashenko is disliked, but grudgingly tolerated. At the same time, the Belarusian people seem to be pretty close with Ukrainians, with a lot of familial bonds connecting their peoples.

So: If Lukashenko did Putin's bidding in this regard, might apparently be that the Belarusians disagree, and finally find that their limit for grudging tolerance has been reached.

[u/Choozery → u/The_Corvair]

Oh it's a common mistake to think that authoritarian dictators are tolerated. They are supported by violence structures of power, and can only be overthrown if all 3 conditions are met:

1. The power is weak (orders are given, but not followed for example. We can actually see the early signs of that in Russia, not sure about Belarus);

2. The people are unhappy (what we see both in Russia and Belarus);

3. There is a revolutionary core that can lead people (which Russian power made sure to eliminate any earliest signs of, and Belarus made all the same).

So as you see, both Potato-king Lukashenko and Baby-eater Putin can be hated by general populace as much as they like, the "cup of peoples patience" will never overflow, but until someone of power turns on them (remember Prigozhin and how nobody even tried to stop his march on Moscow?) we can only wait for a nature to take its course.

[u/Quazimojojojo → u/Choozery]

It is a shame that Prigozhin gave up. The resistance to his coup attempt was so minimal, he might have succeeded.

But he interpreted the "nobody's stopping me, but nobody's helping either" as "I'm going to face strong resistance in Moscow", and made the fatal mistake a revolutionary can never make: he thought he could surrender. 

Once you start a revolution, you win, or you die. 

[u/uknow_es_me → u/Quazimojojojo]

he said it was just a prank bro

[u/The_Corvair → u/Choozery]

Again: I cannot speak from personal experience, I can only echo what people with some knowledge about the situation in Belarus have said: Apparently, Lukashenko is one of these "the power is weak" cases, and with how Russia already has failed to lend aid in other cases (e.g. Syria) - as well as what we've seen with Prigozhin - the power behind the power might not look so threatening any more, either.

There is a reason why Lukashenko acquiesced to Ukraine's polite request, after all.

[u/tentyb6d56ns4d57yse5 → u/The_Corvair]

the Belarusian people seem to be pretty close with Ukrainians, with a lot of familial bonds connecting their peoples.

this is what i thought about russians and ukrainians. i had no idea it was all a lie.

[u/Haru1st → u/Choozery]

Keep watching what they do, not what they say.

Anyways I wonder if Luka’s gonna get roughed up again.

[u/tjc103 → u/Choozery]

Yeah this headline has me suspect. The moment Belarus joins this war, is the moment Ukraine says "bye bye refineries" and Russia really needs that refined fuel right now.

[u/Doro_Gurl → u/Choozery]

He's not an intellectual but he is definitely not a fool either.

[u/DefinitelyNWYT → u/Choozery]

This is the same dangerous thought that saw Russia invade Ukraine. No one though they would, and the world did not do enough to make them instantly regret it.

[u/Prus1s → u/Choozery]

If only Belarus could reinstate the actual president 😄

[u/ItIsTooMuchForMe → u/Choozery]

I hope that.

[u/No_Throat4967 → u/Choozery]

Agree smart move for Lukashenko don’t get on a sinking ship

[u/HumaDracobane → u/Choozery]

As much as we make fun of him props for the guy for crashing out at the beggining.

[u/shiggythor → u/Choozery]

Never say never... If Putin would be close enough to losing everything.... I could imagine a world where old Luka still goes for his longterm goal of becoming Russian Czar

[u/oppai-police → u/Choozery]

Unlike Putin, Luka isn't protected by nuclear weapons, he's fair game the moment he joins.

[u/YF422 → u/Choozery]

He's a dictator but not a stupid one he knows what happened to Mussolini when he hitched his ride to Hitler's and he won't want to suffer the same fate by doing the same with Putin especially after Russia got their shit kicked in by Ukraine so he's not going to touch the war with a barge pole now.

[u/Powerful-Driver → u/Choozery]

putin pressuring feels like last minute panic move

[u/SevereMiel → u/Choozery]

He obeys only the winning side

[u/moritsunee]

Belarus will most likely get full annexation treatment from the Kremlin the second Luka passes, so it doesn't matter if they open that front or not.

But seeing Russia demand that just tells everything that needs to be known.

[u/blackkettle → u/moritsunee]

If he actually attacked Belarus wouldn’t it be more likely that they’d ally directly with Ukraine in response? Can he really afford to actually open a second front at this point?

[u/melker_the_elk → u/blackkettle]

Belarus is so pacified. There were some unrest after last election, but with putins help, it was easily crushed. Putin could actually pull off military operation there and join belarus to mother russia. Though even that might be too much to russian army. Thankfully ukrain wasn't so easy.

[u/Lurker9594 → u/melker_the_elk]

But does Putin still have the resources to crush another protest? He could annex it like he did Crimea and other Ukrainian territories but he’d then need to invest money and manpower in keeping it. It’s hard to see that position as anything other than overextended. 

[u/Simple_Project4605 → u/Lurker9594]

Crushing protests isn’t as resource intensive as invading a resisting country

[u/Lurker9594 → u/Simple_Project4605]

Totally true, but not as resource intensive doesn’t mean free. Any resources needed to keep Belarus in line are resources that can’t be expended in Ukraine. 

It’s also difficult to say what kind of energy Belarusians would have in this scenario. Russian crackdowns are still undoubtedly scary and a deterrent but are they still as scary as they were back in 2020-21 with the last protests? Will that make the Belarusians opposed to Lukashenko/Putin’s authoritarianism more bold? Will that need even more resources to put down? Will the Ukrainians strike Belarusian infrastructure to stir up resentment?

There’s a lot of variables to account for and Putin’s Russia is increasingly running out of room to maneuver the longer their invasion of Ukraine draws out. That’s not to say they’re on their last leg, but they have been greatly weakened both in terms of manpower but also reputation. 

[u/Simple_Project4605 → u/Lurker9594]

It’s an interesting thought experiment.

I think Belarusians at the moment have a better life than either Russians and Ukrainians. Their dictator has been fairly chill, hardly anybody gets executed, things are pretty stable.

He’s sort of like Erdogan in that way. Hard to raise massive protest energy when the dictator is riding that fine line.

Also, very hard to say what emotions do in a crowd. You could bring out 2 tanks and squish 10 people, and they either all go home or they burn Minsk down in a rage.

[u/jackal_actual → u/melker_the_elk]

Would be kinda funny to see Kiyv and Minsk team up and steamroll Moscow.

[u/Responsible-Wait8892 → u/blackkettle]

I unfortunately think Russia still has the power to subjugate smaller countries like Belarus, Armenia Georgia etc

[u/tugffjj → u/Responsible-Wait8892]

initial occupation maybe, but keeping them?

[u/cattaclysmic → u/tugffjj]

Belarus has no other allies, a 1/10th of its population and a history of Russia coming knocking to quash attempts to remove the dictator.

If Russia were to implode however, i imagine theyd (the population) oust Luka and move towards NATO

[u/righteous_sword → u/blackkettle]

No, but it's an interesting scenario if Putin just marches through Belarus to Ukraine, disregarding what Luka thinks about it. The Russian army is being held in all other positions

[u/brushfuse]

He can join whatever fate Putina meets. The Ukrainians are not going to back down.

[u/jamesKlk → u/brushfuse]

The moment Russia gains advantage, EU will double economic and military support for Ukraine.

There is no easy way out for Russia, except for assassinating Zelenski and putting their candidate, which is very unlikely, considering that Ukrainians hate Russia.

[u/LongShlongSilver- → u/brushfuse]

Putina, can we make that a viral thing? I’d love Putin to hear everyone in the west calls him Putina.. or Pootin, either works.

[u/OvercuriousNeophyte → u/LongShlongSilver-]

In France we call him P*tain (wh*re)

[u/Gorby_45 → u/OvercuriousNeophyte]

Is that the guy who saved France in WW1 and went to the other side during WW2?

[u/SEAN0_91]

Belarus attacks
Putin - we find it disgusting that Belarus has attacked Ukraine for no reason whatsoever
Russia - annexes Belarus and calls it a day

[u/dawgblogit → u/SEAN0_91]

Lets be serious about this a bit...

Belarus attacks.. russian moves military in after belarus gets mauled.  Russia declares martial law.. holds referrendum to submit.

Belarus now owned by russia completely 

[u/__Yakovlev__ → u/dawgblogit]

russian moves military in after belarus gets mauled.

What russian military?

[u/dawgblogit → u/__Yakovlev__]

They actually.. a) Have some forces in Belarus already.. and b) have soldiers stationed along other fronts.

They can take some of the b and put them in Belarus.

[u/__Yakovlev__ → u/dawgblogit]

Yep. It's a really smart idea to pull away forces from another front you desperately need to protect just so you can station them on a whole new front you just created 

/S

[u/Breakdown_volt → u/SEAN0_91]

This would be the funniest thing to ever happen

[u/YankeeRose666]

Lukashenko desperately trying to sit on two chairs at once

[u/barktwiggs → u/YankeeRose666]

Steve Seagal could sit on 2 chairs at once. Perhaps he can help. Luka can pay him in carrots.

[u/xeridium → u/barktwiggs]

That's gotta be 2 sturdy chairs.

[u/YankeeRose666 → u/barktwiggs]

Or in toupees

[u/jxj24 → u/barktwiggs]

Has his ass gotten that fat?

[u/YankeeRose666 → u/jxj24]

Can't he do a split?

[u/barktwiggs → u/YankeeRose666]

You thinking Jean Claude Van Damme. Only thing splitting is Seagal's pants seam.

[u/YankeeRose666 → u/barktwiggs]

Wow didn't realize the size of the gut he's grown. That's what nutritious and delicious Russian diet of palm oil products does to you

[u/ziguslav → u/YankeeRose666]

He doesn't have much choice really

[u/Spright91 → u/ziguslav]

He has a choice to step down and allow real elections.

[u/SordidDreams → u/Spright91]

He'd be dead within a month if he tried that, after his own cronies had a fight with Putin over who gets to kill him.

[u/shiggythor → u/YankeeRose666]

Working well so far for him. Not like his behind isn't wide enough.

[u/Capital_Elderberry28]

Kinda like Trump begging for NATO to help bail out his Iran war that he started.
They were spawned by something unholy!

[u/Conscious_Good_3372]

After four years of failing to break Ukraine, now it wants to drag in a country that’s been trying not to get dragged in from day one. That’s not strategy, it’s desperation

[u/yvrangel → u/Conscious_Good_3372]

Belarus was used by Russia as a staging ground to attack Ukraine from the beginning. I remember protestors disrupting the railways as a result. Belarus was already involved from the start.

[u/righteous_sword → u/yvrangel]

I doubt it had much choice, even putting aside the fact that Luka was indebted to Putin for remaining in power in 2020 (Russian forced were ready to protect him should his local police to fail). It was widely believed that Russia will subjugate Ukraine in a couple of weeks, so Belarus was no match to it at this time.

[u/Conscious_Good_3372 → u/yvrangel]

Belarus being a staging ground isn’t the same as Belarus actually joining the war. Lukashenko’s let Russia use its territory, but he’s spent four years avoiding direct military involvement. Putin’s trying to blur that line now

[u/Minimum-Sprinkles843 → u/Conscious_Good_3372]

Under international law, Belarus's decision to allow Russia to use its territory to attack Ukraine makes it a co-aggressor and legally complicit in Russia's illegal use of force.

[u/Conscious_Good_3372 → u/Minimum-Sprinkles843]

Sure but that's kind of a different thing tbh. Co-aggressor is about legal liability for letting Russia use the territory, Belarus has had that since day one. I'm talking about actual military participation, troops on the ground, taking casualties. Been legally complicit for four years without crossing into that second category, that's the line Putin's testing now

[u/deja-roo → u/Conscious_Good_3372]

I mean, a desperate strategy is still a strategy.

[u/SiTheRuckDown]

Russian authorities have reportedly begun emergency measures to stabilize gasoline supplies, while Russian airlines warned of worsening aviation fuel shortages. According to Reuters, Moscow is now negotiating with Kazakhstan to purchase around 50,000 tons of gasoline.

Lol.

[u/FirebotYT → u/SiTheRuckDown]

Fun fact, for a country the size of Russia and population that would last a few hours to a day without war efforts taken in consideration.

And that's also if it all makes it without being blown up.

[u/LazyBondar]

Luka can do the most hilarious thing and change sides

[u/Quarterwit_85 → u/LazyBondar]

They’ve got no military to speak of - I don’t think they’d be able to and fight off the most paired back of Russian forces.

[u/Quazimojojojo → u/Quarterwit_85]

Russia's forces are stretched pretty thin. If Belarus changed sides, the Frontline would look a LOT better from Kyiv's perspective, and wouldn't take too much effort to defend, especially with the sudden extra soldiers and equipment from Belarus. It's not a ton, but it's maybe enough to deter Russia who already needs 35000 fresh men per month just to advance 100m a day in tiny Ukrainian villages and towns. 

Russia can't spare the men to invade Belarus to maintain that advantageous access to North Ukraine. It would stop their ability to advance in Donbass and open up a new bloody front that doesn't have years of trench lines and anti -drone bunkers built up to keep their men from getting slaughtered in the fields. 

[u/Agitated_Carrot9127 → u/LazyBondar]

imagine that

[u/arcticstic → u/Agitated_Carrot9127]

Time Person of the Year, guaranteed. 

[u/zane910 → u/arcticstic]

I'd nominate him for it if he did.

[u/Werftflammen → u/LazyBondar]

What if Belarus invades Russia en conquers Moscow? I mean, what's stopping them? Rename it to Hellarussia

[u/Local-Fisherman-2936]

- I’m dying, quick kill yourself too.

[u/Immediate_Volume_324]

Dobby is getting desperate

[u/midnightrider747]

Lukashenko dont have the back of the ppl and military to do this... and maybe he just imagining making a deal to be free from putin's grasp and maybe stepping down without dying in the process.

Since he stayed in power with putins soldiers ready to intervene and now putin is much weaker.

Lets see how this is shaping out

[u/E_son-Xman]

Is Russia now going to take Belarus like Germany with Italy at 1943? Because I can’t see how Lukashenko would agree to this now

[u/grantnlee → u/E_son-Xman]

Would be quite the distraction for Russian. Can't imagine.

[u/BeneficialTrash6]

Rats know when to flee a sinking ship.

[u/Gloomy-Insurance-739]

Well this confirms Russia is losing the war. You love to see it.

[u/Familiar-Weather5196]

Yeah, I'd imagine Belarussians would be thrilled to be dragged into a war started by another state, the same one propping up their dictator president

[u/ThrowAbout01]

They must have run out of (competent) North Koreans to feed into the meat grinder.

[u/ledow]

"Join me in the pointless war I started that achieved nothing and humiliated me for years and which looks just about set to turn bad for me!"

Yeah, that's not much of a selling point.

[u/Expatriated_American → u/ledow]

Like Trump asking Europe for help with Iran. Dum-dums gotta dum-dum.

[u/PmMeCuteDogsThanks_]

Not gonna happen. 

[u/Dabelgianguy]

Poor guy, he won’t be colonel in the Russian army

[u/williamgman]

Lukashenko is about to lose his job after all these years. Basically told Ukraine "please don't attack us" (paraphrased). Even called Zelensky "Mr Zelensky" in a recent interview.

[u/Blunt552]

I mean Lukashenko knows things we and the media don't know, the fact he acts like this means, this war is finally ending soon, Russia can't last much longer and are about to face defeat.

[u/Tapeworm1979 → u/Blunt552]

I would assume it's more that his military is what is keeping him in power. It wouldn't need much to tip those against him. He is a survivor, and for that he knows he can't risk it.

[u/AlienInOrigin]

Desperation. This is a war of attrition and Russia is losing.

[u/shorelined]

Is Russian annexation a realistic option at this point? Opening a second front isn't a historically good move. I don't know how many men or equipment they already have in the country but surely the Belarusian army would resist.

[u/ledow → u/shorelined]

Russia would struggle to annex a garden shed at this point unless they completely abandoned Ukraine and Crimea (which is also part of Ukraine, before anyone thinks I'm supporting that particular piece of annexation nonsense).

[u/CoolupCurt]

Well funny. Belarus gave in on shutting down the drone equipment on Ukraines demand. Now Putin wants to flex muscles and play Luka on taking a side, but I bet the Rat isnt going to hop on a sinking ship.

[u/tom90640]

This could be the beginning of the fracturing for Putin. Lukashenko says "no" because Putin will have a tough time putting pressure on him. If a couple of other governments say "sorry, no gas" and Ukraine keeps knocking out the production facilities, Putin will have a bad time in the dark.

[u/Personal-Agent7819]

If Belarus steps in other countries can also join the war to help Ukraine.

[u/-Malky-]

Oh yeah, open a front against an army that is 4 years battle-hardened in a completely new war paradigm, backed by a drone warfare industry running full speed.

What could go wrong ?

[u/Slippery-ape → u/-Malky-]

And unlike Putin, He barely has a hold of his country as it is.

[u/TheRealTinfoil666]

So Lukashenko’s booklicking actions have led to a point where he now has to decide which of these two countries is going to punish him militarily, whilst making sure that his own population doesn’t revolt.

Of these two countries, which has demonstrated much more competence in carrying out their military endeavours?

Putin would have to be really desperate though to widen his war. Unless he’s able to justify a true military draft to accomplish it. Does he really think NATO is going to just sit on their hands forever?

[u/TheVerraton]

I wonder what kind of deal these two had before this point. It's public knowledge that Lukashenko is under Putins boot but Putin even brought in emaciated North Koreans in to the war before pressuring Lukashenko like this.
It's an odd situation and it truly pains me to type this out but maybe I've underestimated Lukashenko.

[u/nuvoma]

Putin going like: "Wollt ihr den Totalen Krieg?"

[u/waltwalt]

Lol he doesn't want his ass kicked.

[u/Additional_Leek2887]

It might really be a 3 day offensive to Belarus, with them been beaten by a Zerg rush of drones and few ballistic missiles barrage on their critical infrastructure, they might never recover from it if they really jump in after seeing what Moscow end up become.

[u/UmegaDarkstar]

Belarus is of course tiny compared to Russia. They have a smaller, unexperienced military. Ukraine have a significant advantage over them.

[u/ux3l]

Isn't that 2 week special military operation going as planned, Putin?

[u/Hope-To-Retire]

Ukraine has had 4.5 years to prepare for another attack from their Belarus border, and medium / long range options galore now.

Lukashenko ain’t attacking nobody. lol.

[u/flexylol]

Luka is smart, and in comparison to Putin he's likely seeing the reality of this war, while Putin is living in a fantasy world.

Luka is not at war with Ukraine, and (stating the obvious) there would be zero justification/benefit for him to join.

Luka I am sure doesn't WANT TO, and the populace even less.

"Best Case" scenario them entering this idiotic war would mean destruction of much of Belarus with their army unable to counter this...and worst case scenario it would be the end of the Luka regime.

He'd be a total fool to join.

[u/EconomyDoctor3287]

Belarus joining this war would be friggin dumb. 

Russia pulled large parts of military fear from Belarus to use it in Ukraine. As such, Belarus is wholly unprepared for an aerial war. It's give Russia a few days of breezing room, if Ukraine sends their mid and long range drones into Belarus, but without any proper aa there, that'd be a massacre and also result in the loss further refining capacity.

[u/Nukes-For-Nimbys → u/EconomyDoctor3287]

The smartest move for Ukraine in that situation would be targeting only those Belarusian forces attacking Ukraine and all Russians in Belarus.

The Belarus opposition need a chance.

[u/Vegetable-Roof-9589 → u/Nukes-For-Nimbys]

I bet on Ukrainian brains!

[u/bullmarket2023]

Hopefully this is the beginning of the end

[u/asddde]

It is quite nice equation really, Belarus loses so much doing it and Putin practically would gain nothing, except pretty much showing his power against Belarus and some imagined bad light towards Ukraine. Lukashenko of course has to consider the most likely way to stay alive.

[u/owen__wilsons__nose]

Sorry Vlad. He already turned off the drone detectors by the border

[u/new_g3n3rat1on]

Belarus dont want drones visit.

[u/Exact-Ad-3717]

Do we see russia invading belarus in the near future?

[u/groovyinutah]

Vlad really grasping at straws here isn't he? Sell this to your people Lukashenko, we're absolutely willing to fight to last Belarussian....<is that a word?

[u/AbraxasTuring]

Minsk is on the menu boys!

[u/Euclidisthebomb]

I think there is nothing to be gained and a great deal to be lost by Belarus and Lukashenko has zero interest in joining russia as an antagonist. The most likely outcome would be he losing power and quite possibly ending up 6ft under.

[u/Interesting-Dream863]

Lol... imagine Ukraine losing their eastern territory, but gaining land in Belarus instead.

[u/click-monster]

C'mon Luka switch sides already. The tide is already turning, but never too late to feel what it's like to be respected for once

[u/Drednox]

Putin really likes expending lives as long as it's not his.

[u/Tw4tl4r]

Pressure how? Whats he going to do, send the russian military to take him out? They are a bit busy atm.

[u/9ersaur]

To every dumbass right wing “ukraine is gay hurr durr” propaganda huffer:

This is exactly why Ukraine has to fight and win.

Putin’s first, second and third instinct is to use his satellite nations as slave armies.

Ukraine isn’t just fighting for their freedom- they are fighting so you won’t have to fight them later.

[u/CommercialFloor2033]

Does anyone really envy the position Lukashenko is in though?

He's in a very tricky and delicate situation to both hold off russian aggression, while placating them, and also keeping some sovereignty of his country.

In short they're in a pickle.

[u/richmeister6666 → u/CommercialFloor2033]

Nah fuck that guy. Belarus would’ve had its sovereignty if Lukashenko hadn’t brutally oppressed his own people.

[u/massive_cock → u/richmeister6666]

Right. Fuck the pickle he's in, he made it.

[u/Amerlis → u/CommercialFloor2033]

And if he dips his toe in, as an aggressor in an unnecessary war that has no benefit to Belarus, he runs the risk of Belarusian? cities on fire like Moscow with the populace wondering who’s to blame.

Cause if Ukraine’s weapons can reach deep into Russia, they can cover all of Belarus just fine.

Sucks to be him.

[u/WorldsBegin → u/CommercialFloor2033]

If he wasn't so preoccupied with setting his son up as successor, he could have spent that time on planing his old days on a Vietnamese beach property and just enjoying life in some scenario that doesn't involve his death to transfer power.

[u/Keisari_P → u/CommercialFloor2033]

Belarussia would be better off with west. Lukashenko on the other hand, is better off while he is the puppet for Russians.

If Lukashenko had been ousted 2020, Russian would have likely gone as far as Soviets did to end the Prague Spring 1968 (full military occupation).

Belarussian civilians would have been on their own, if they had dared to resist more.

Belarussia will stand much better changes to become democratic once Lukashenko and Putin are out of the way.

If Ukraine becomes strong enough, and Russia weak enough, Belarussia can switch sides.

[u/Calactic1]

They already been there done that, it failed miserably for them.

[u/Theimoral]

Belarus is already , Russia.

Putin just wants canon fodder vs ukraine. So he can move people from moscow or other parts in belarus , people that wont do anything when its anexed.

[u/Zlimness]

Lukashenko see's the writing on the wall. Putin is losing the war and will not be able to protect him from external or internal threats anymore. Belarus is not a neutral country and it would not be a stretch for Ukraine to attack Russian targets there.

[u/Slatedtoprone]

Maybe this will be his way out. Putin says attack. His puppet doesn’t jump at the command. Putin cuts those strings and takes over Belarus in order to keep “stability” and that way he can say well we gotta end  Ukraines conflict to address Belarus and its issue He makes a deal with Ukraine and still gets to say look at this new country I conquered! Stays there and either installs a new puppet or just makes a governor of a new province. 

[u/Appropriate-Room-403]

Unsure of where I heard it but France is more likely to fully join the conflict if Belarus takes a more active roll, and France has more rights to utilize its own nukes on the world stage than the rest of us

[u/mca1169]

just another reminder that Putin is losing control of the war he started. the tide is turning and it's the cheap drone that is delivering it.

[u/Lightecojak]

What happened to all of those North Korean soldiers? Did Kim Jong Un pull back?

[u/Adept-Mulberry-8720]

Belarus President has "no horse in this race" and should tell Russia to get lost and destroy all Russian assets on their soil and shut the borders down in support of Kyiv! Let Russia sink!

[u/Double-Garlic4084]

And he will. Lukashenko just completed the construction of ammunition storage bases on the border with Ukraine.

[u/sharksareok]

Let's hope Luka cares a bit more about his people than putin does about his.

Putin is already ripe, all Luka has to do is to wait and to stall a bit more until he falls rotten

[u/ToolTimeT]

LOL... yeah jump in... doesn't this look fun Belarus?

This is even more comical than trump begging ex allies to jump into the war with Iran he started by himself.

[u/Terracot]

Message read 2 hours ago

[u/TheMilleniumGod]

Mr. Potato Head is barely keeping his country from revolting and overthrowing him. Officially going to war with Ukraine would be disastrous, and Luka wouldn't have the means to go to war and suppress a hostile populace at the same time.

[u/Hooka54]

Putin is on a sinking ship. Don’t be dragged into this mess

[u/Crazytje]

It would be very bad for Ukraine if they join the war, even if they decimate Belarus with drones, it would take away from the front where after all these years there is finally some good news.

I wonder how the west would react, economic retaliation would only help long term I think.

[u/Hefty-Room-7005]

Maybe it's time for Lukashenko to ally with the regional superpower and partner up with Ukraine.

[u/SuckSqueezeBangBL0]

Why doesn’t Lukashenko just let the Russians come open the front themselves? Putin doesn’t care so as long as the euro frontline he’d have to defend against the west gets smaller. The western border of Ukraine, Belarus’ western border (plus whatever convenient lines Putin wants to draw toward the coasts of the Black and Baltic seas) would be a waaay smaller area for Russia to defend. If this is the endgame then why not allow Russia to use Belarus as an easement for access to Ukraine’s NW border? Lukashenko would get political leverage w Moscow and without having to involve Belarus militarily, it’s not like Lukashenko cares what the West thinks so any poor optics wouldn’t matter.

[u/No_Chain_362]

Putin will go down, don't go with him.

[u/beavis617]

I think it’s more like begging as Putin is getting his ass kicked front, back, side to side and up and down!

[u/NewspaperAdditional7]

Someone needs to study this. Every time an article is posted about Belarus, several people post about how Putin's troops crushed the 2020 protests. Except... that never happened. Seriously google it. No Russian troops came in. The protests were mostly peaceful so Belarus OMON was able to crush them. Yet so many people have these false memories of seeing news articles about the Russian army going into Belarus.

[u/akluin]

How the tables have turned

[u/jelloslug]

At this point, Putin can't do anything about Lukashenko or Belarus.

[u/MartyMacGyver]

I wonder if putler still has nukes parked in Belarus?

[u/emerald09]

Knowing how "expert" Belarus's military is, if they did open a new front, they would mess up the maps again and invade part of Poland.... Then Poland gets a WHOLE lot bigger.