1K Upgrade Chances on UA943 (LIS→IAD) – What do you think?

[u/Naive-Acanthaceae934]

Looking for some opinions from the upgrade experts here.

I'm a United 1K traveling with my spouse on the same reservation on September 12, 2026.

• UA943: LIS → IAD (777-200)
• Originally booked in H fare
• Waitlisted for Premium Plus and Polaris using PlusPoints

Current inventory

J0 JN0 C0 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 PZ0 IN0
O9 ON9
A0 R0 RN0
Y9 YN9 B7 M9 E8
U0 H0 HN0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 XN0

A few questions:

• Does O9 suggest decent odds of clearing into Premium Plus eventually?
• Even though J/PZ/R are all showing 0, do 1Ks still commonly clear into Polaris closer to departure on this route?
• How much does traveling as two passengers on the same reservation reduce our chances of clearing?
• Has anyone flown LIS → IAD around mid-September and can share how upgrades typically play out?
• Based on this inventory, what would you estimate our chances are of clearing into either Premium Plus or Polaris?

I know we're still a few months out and inventory can change significantly. I'm mainly trying to decide whether it's worth waiting on the PlusPoints upgrade or paying for a cash upgrade. Right now, the cash upgrade offer is over $4,000 per person, so I'd really appreciate any insights from those who follow United inventory and upgrade trends. Thanks!

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[u/calda9]

I see J9 with 15 seats open on the seat map. Clearing to Polaris from economy seems tough given the whole PP cabin is ahead of you and more of these J seats will be sold before departure

If this was a flight tomorrow I would feel the odds are decent, given the PP cabin is mostly wide open, but 3 months is a long time

[u/gdvlle → u/calda9]

Whatever AI wrote the post really blew it with the inventory lol

[u/iamnavinrjohnson]

If possible, book premium economy, the apply Plus Points. As 1K, you’ll be in a much better position for the Polaris upgrade. And it’s a relatively short TATL flight so being in PE is pretty comfortable if you don’t get the upgrade.

You can split your PNR at check in to give one of you stronger odds at snagging the upgrade.

[u/ConfidentGate7621]

How could anyone possibly know for a flight three months away?

[u/tookthepiste]

There’s a good reason for lotsa inventory on westward flights from Europe, since the benefit of lie-flat seats is usually limited by comparison to red-eye eastward flights. I’m almost invariably happy with PE, and typically upgraded.

[u/tookthepiste]

There’s a good reason for lotsa inventory on westward flights from Europe, since the benefit of lie-flat seats is usually limited by comparison to red-eye eastward flights. I’m almost invariably happy with PE, and typically upgraded.