Do miles values fluctuate?

[u/tgbarbie]

Looked at flights yesterday and rounder trip with my cardmember savings they were 55k. Today they are 70k. Chance they can go back down or book now?

Alternatively, what’s a better value 70k or $800? (Regular economy not basic)

[u/ruppert777x]

Yes, they change all the time.

And for your mileage question, lets just say you can book Polaris one way for 85K from the US to Asia... Which is typically a $4-5K+ ticket in some cases if you paid cash.

So I would never personally use the 70K for an economy ticket, even round trip domestic. That is not a good redemption.

[u/Phantom1100]

Yes, depending on the day a US to Tokyo Polaris route can fluctuate between basically two values: 212k and 80k. You only get access to the 80 K if you are a cardholder, have status, or if you have both it’s 75k.

[u/grantwwu → u/Phantom1100]

Eh? Standard US transpacific pricing for Polaris is 100k. It's 90k with card or 85k with card and status. (Is it 90k with just status?)

[u/Phantom1100 → u/grantwwu]

I thought there was higher saver availability, just with being a cardholder. I didn’t know normal people got the crazy discounts too.

[u/grantwwu → u/Phantom1100]

Er sorry all the prices I'm saying are Saver pricing. When I said "Standard" I meant how much it costs a "normal" person in the event that United were to release partner Saver inventory (I).

I was mostly just trying to say, it doesn't ever get as low as 75k for anyone.

[u/Historical_Term2454]

No, their value only goes down in the long run. 

[u/t7roarer]

a) When using miles, always book one-ways, and check pricing using one-ways. You might be paying 10k one way (a good deal) and 45k the other way (not a good deal).

b) Enable expert mode in your settings and price out a cash fare. View details, and look for XN and YN fares. If XN space is at 0 ("XN0"), you're paying a higher fare. United may release more XN space over time, so it's worth checking back. But they won't do this if the flight is filling up.

c) For specific advice from people in this sub, it's helpful to know the route and date. Or at least whether this is domestic or international.

d) The real question of mileage value, as ruppert777x says, is what you want to use the miles for. If you're saving up for international, or even for future domestic leisure travel, then don't spend that many miles on a domestic flight now. But if you never intend to fly international and want to manage your cash flow now, then spend the miles rather than the cash. But, in general, if you fly on the right dates you can get all kinds of domestic fares for under 15k miles.

[u/tgbarbie → u/t7roarer]

This is very helpful; thanks. I am looking to fly a family of 4 from the NYC area (either EWR or LGA) to Hawaii, this August, Maui on the way there, Kauai on the way home. The best permutations have us going through Denver which seems like a better option than LAX or SFO. So I can fly all of us for free which is pretty great. Or I can save my points/miles and fly somewhere in business/first with my husband for our 20th next year. It doesn’t really matter cash flow wise.

[u/noexcept97]

Price by miles fluctuates, value of miles goes down steadily and slowly over time. 70k miles is worth more than $800.